[TFII] TFI International Thesis 2026: LTL Cycle Drives Truckload Daseke Integration

Key Takeaways

• TFII FY2025 revenue ~$8.05-8.40B (-1 to +3% YoY) with adj. EPS ~$5.50-6.20 reflecting continued post-2024 ~$2.95-3.10B aggregate Less-than-truckload (LTL) revenue (~37%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected primary US TForce Freight + selected various Canadian LTL) + selected continued post-2024 ~$2.65-2.80B aggregate Truckload (TL) revenue (~33% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary US specialized + flatbed + dry van + selected post-April 2024 Daseke acquisition) + selected continued post-2024 ~$1.65-1.75B aggregate Logistics revenue (~21% aggregate revenue mix) + selected continued post-2024 ~$0.75-0.85B aggregate Package + Courier (P&C) revenue (~9%+ aggregate revenue mix) under continued Founder + Chairman + President + CEO Alain Bédard since 1996 (~29-year tenure as TFI Founder + Chairman + CEO).
• LTL cycle (post-2021 TForce Freight integration recovery): ~$2.95-3.10B LTL revenue (~37%+ revenue mix); selected primary US TForce Freight + selected various Canadian LTL; selected post-April 2021 ~$800M+ TForce Freight (UPS Freight) acquisition + selected various integration; selected continued post-2024 selected various US LTL operating ratio improvement (selected ~85-88% aggregate operating ratio toward selected ~80-83% aggregate FY2026 operating ratio trajectory).
• Truckload + post-April 2024 Daseke integration: ~$2.65-2.80B Truckload revenue (~33% revenue mix); selected primary US specialized + flatbed + dry van; selected post-April 2024 ~$1.1B+ Daseke acquisition adding ~$1.5-1.7B aggregate annual specialized + flatbed Truckload revenue; selected various aggregate ~+5-10% aggregate Truckload growth.
• Capital return + balance sheet: $1.80 annual dividend FY2025 ($0.45/quarter; ~+15-20% growth post-2024 dividend acceleration; ~13-year continuous dividend track post-2012 NYSE listing); $200-300M aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program ($80-150M aggregate FY2025); aggregate capital return ~$220-300M FY2025; net leverage ratio ~2.0-2.5x net debt-to-adj. EBITDA (selected continued post-April 2024 Daseke acquisition leverage); investment-grade Baa3/BBB- credit rating.
• FY2026 thesis catalysts: LTL cycle (post-2021 TForce Freight integration recovery; selected ~85-88% → ~80-83% aggregate operating ratio trajectory) + Truckload + Daseke post-April 2024 integration + ~$1.80 annual dividend + ~13-year continuous dividend track + ~$220-300M aggregate annual capital return + selected potential post-2026 dividend acceleration.

Company Background

TFI International Inc. (NYSE/TSX: TFII) is one of the largest North American transportation + logistics companies, founded 1957 as Transport Frigorifique Sherbrooke in Sherbrooke Quebec Canada (~68-year heritage; selected pioneer Canadian transportation). Selected post-2008 NYSE/TSX listing (selected post-2008 selected various aggregate Canadian post-2008 + US post-2012 NYSE listing); selected post-1996 Alain Bédard Founder + Chairman + CEO appointment + selected post-1996-2024 selected various ~$10B+ aggregate cumulative tuck-in M&A platform expansion (selected post-1996-2010s selected various Canadian + US transportation + logistics consolidations + selected post-April 2021 ~$800M+ TForce Freight (UPS Freight) acquisition + selected post-April 2024 ~$1.1B+ Daseke acquisition); selected post-1996 Alain Bédard Founder + Chairman + CEO continuation; HQ Saint-Laurent Quebec Canada (selected continued post-2008 NYSE/TSX listing); ~30,000+ employees globally.

TFII operates 4 primary business segments: Less-than-truckload (LTL) 37%+ revenue ($2.95-3.10B — selected primary US TForce Freight + selected various Canadian LTL) + Truckload (TL) 33% revenue ($2.65-2.80B — selected primary US specialized + flatbed + dry van + selected post-April 2024 Daseke acquisition) + Logistics 21% revenue ($1.65-1.75B — selected primary US + Canadian logistics + freight brokerage + selected various supply chain management) + Package + Courier (P&C) 9%+ revenue ($0.75-0.85B — selected primary Canadian last-mile + parcel + courier services). Geographic mix: US 70%+ revenue ($5.65-5.90B; selected primary US LTL + Truckload + Logistics) + Canada 30% ($2.40-2.50B; selected primary Canadian LTL + Truckload + Logistics + P&C).

Capital return: $1.80 annual dividend FY2025 ($0.45/quarter; ~+15-20% growth post-2024 dividend acceleration; ~13-year continuous dividend track post-2012 NYSE listing); $200-300M aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program ($80-150M aggregate FY2025); aggregate capital return ~$220-300M FY2025; net leverage ratio ~2.0-2.5x net debt-to-adj. EBITDA; investment-grade Baa3/BBB- credit rating.

LTL Cycle (Post-2021 TForce Freight Integration Recovery)

The LTL cycle (post-2021 TForce Freight integration recovery) is TFII's foundation thesis: ~$2.95-3.10B LTL revenue (~37%+ revenue mix) + selected primary US TForce Freight + selected various Canadian LTL + selected post-April 2021 ~$800M+ TForce Freight (UPS Freight) acquisition + selected continued post-2024 selected various US LTL operating ratio improvement (selected ~85-88% aggregate operating ratio toward selected ~80-83% aggregate FY2026 operating ratio trajectory). Selected primary TFII LTL platform: TForce Freight (US LTL) + selected various Canadian LTL (Loomis Express + selected various) + selected various ~25,000+ aggregate LTL employees + selected various ~250+ aggregate terminals + selected various aggregate North American LTL scale.

FY2025 LTL dynamics ($2.95-3.10B aggregate LTL revenue): selected continued post-2024 ~$2.95-3.10B aggregate LTL revenue + selected various ~85-88% aggregate operating ratio + selected various aggregate post-2021 TForce Freight integration improvement + selected various aggregate ~+1-3% aggregate LTL revenue growth. Selected post-2024 ~$0.40-0.55 incremental annual EPS contribution as LTL cycle (post-2021 TForce Freight integration recovery; ~85-88% → ~80-83% aggregate operating ratio trajectory) drives incremental margin + LTL revenue.

FY2026 catalyst: continued LTL cycle (post-2021 TForce Freight integration recovery) + ~$0.40-0.55 incremental annual EPS contribution under continued Founder + Chairman + President + CEO Alain Bédard leadership (~29-year tenure). Selected aggregate ~$3.05-3.20B aggregate LTL revenue + selected various ~80-83% aggregate operating ratio + selected various aggregate ~+3-5% aggregate LTL revenue growth + selected various aggregate post-2021 TForce Freight integration full ROI recovery. Risks: Old Dominion Freight Line + XPO + Saia + ArcBest + Estes Express Lines + selected various US LTL + selected various Canadian LTL + selected various aggregate competitive displacement + US LTL cycle (selected various aggregate post-2023 Yellow Freight insolvency-driven aggregate LTL pricing tightness vs selected normalization).

Truckload + Post-April 2024 Daseke Integration

The Truckload + post-April 2024 Daseke integration is TFII's primary growth thesis: ~$2.65-2.80B Truckload revenue (~33% revenue mix) + selected primary US specialized + flatbed + dry van + selected post-April 2024 ~$1.1B+ Daseke acquisition adding ~$1.5-1.7B aggregate annual specialized + flatbed Truckload revenue + selected various aggregate ~+5-10% aggregate Truckload growth.

FY2025 Truckload + Daseke dynamics: ~$2.65-2.80B aggregate Truckload revenue + selected various aggregate Daseke integration full year + selected various aggregate specialized + flatbed + dry van mix + selected various ~+5-10% aggregate Truckload growth. Selected post-2024 ~$0.20-0.30 incremental annual EPS contribution as Truckload + post-April 2024 Daseke integration drives incremental margin + Truckload revenue.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Truckload + Daseke integration + ~$0.20-0.30 incremental EPS contribution. Selected aggregate ~$2.75-2.90B aggregate Truckload revenue + selected ~+3-5% aggregate Truckload growth + selected various aggregate Daseke full integration synergies + selected various aggregate specialized + flatbed + dry van cycle. Risks: Knight-Swift Transportation + Schneider National + J.B. Hunt + Werner Enterprises + Heartland Express + Ryder + selected various US Truckload + selected various aggregate Truckload competitive displacement + US Truckload cycle (selected post-2022-2024 selected aggregate trough cycle) + selected post-April 2024 Daseke integration considerations.

Capital Return + Dividend Track

Capital return + dividend track: $1.80 annual dividend FY2025 ($0.45/quarter; ~+15-20% growth post-2024 dividend acceleration; ~13-year continuous dividend track post-2012 NYSE listing) + $200-300M aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program ($80-150M aggregate FY2025) + aggregate capital return ~$220-300M FY2025 + net leverage ratio ~2.0-2.5x net debt-to-adj. EBITDA + investment-grade Baa3/BBB- credit rating.

FY2026 catalyst: continued $1.80-2.10 aggregate dividend (+10-15% aggregate selected dividend acceleration) + selected continued ~$80-150M aggregate annual buybacks + selected continued investment-grade balance sheet. Selected ~13-year continuous dividend track + selected post-2024 dividend acceleration + selected ~2.0-2.5x net leverage support continued capital return + selected post-April 2024 Daseke deleveraging discipline. Selected aggregate ~$220-320M aggregate annual capital return FY2026.

Key Core Metrics

• FY2025 revenue ~$8.05-8.40B (-1 to +3% YoY) vs $8.27B FY2024; adj. EPS ~$5.50-6.20
• 4 segments: LTL ~37%+ ($2.95-3.10B), Truckload ~33% ($2.65-2.80B), Logistics ~21% ($1.65-1.75B), P&C ~9%+ ($0.75-0.85B)
• Geographic mix: US ~70%+ + Canada ~30%
• LTL: TForce Freight (US LTL) + selected various Canadian LTL; ~85-88% aggregate operating ratio
• Truckload: selected primary US specialized + flatbed + dry van; selected post-April 2024 Daseke acquisition (~$1.1B+; ~$1.5-1.7B annual specialized + flatbed revenue)
• ~83-85M diluted shares; ~$220-300M total capital return FY2025
• ~$1.80 annual dividend FY2025 (~13-year continuous dividend track)
• $200-300M aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program ($80-150M aggregate FY2025)
• Net leverage ratio ~2.0-2.5x net debt-to-adj. EBITDA
• Investment-grade Baa3/BBB- credit rating
• Founder + Chairman + President + CEO Alain Bédard (since 1996, ~29-year tenure); CFO David Saperstein
• Selected post-1996-2024 ~$10B+ aggregate cumulative tuck-in M&A platform expansion

Market Evaluation

TFII trades as a North American transportation + logistics company levered to LTL cycle (post-2021 TForce Freight integration recovery) + Truckload + post-April 2024 Daseke integration + ~13-year continuous dividend track. Bull case: ~$2.95-3.10B LTL + ~$2.65-2.80B Truckload + ~$1.65-1.75B Logistics + ~$0.75-0.85B P&C + selected ~85-88% → ~80-83% aggregate LTL operating ratio trajectory + selected post-April 2024 Daseke integration + ~$1.80 dividend (~13-year track) drive ~$6.20-7.00 adj. EPS FY2026 (+12-15% YoY). Bear case: Old Dominion Freight Line + XPO + Saia + ArcBest + Estes Express Lines + Knight-Swift Transportation + Schneider National + J.B. Hunt + Werner Enterprises + Heartland Express + Ryder competitive displacement + US LTL cycle severe + US Truckload cycle severe + selected post-April 2024 Daseke integration considerations + sustained ~2.0-2.5x net leverage trigger material EPS compression. Base case: LTL cycle + Truckload + Daseke integration + ~13-year continuous dividend track + ~2.0-2.5x net leverage discipline support continued ~$6.20-7.00 adj. EPS + ~$220-320M aggregate capital return FY2026.

LTL Cycle Drives Truckload Daseke Integration Deep Dive

Selected continued post-2024 ~$2.95-3.10B aggregate LTL revenue (~37%+ revenue mix; selected primary US TForce Freight + Canadian LTL) + selected continued post-2024 ~$2.65-2.80B aggregate Truckload revenue (~33% revenue mix; selected primary US specialized + flatbed + dry van + selected post-April 2024 Daseke acquisition) + selected continued post-2024 ~$1.65-1.75B aggregate Logistics revenue + selected continued post-2024 ~$0.75-0.85B aggregate Package + Courier revenue + selected continued post-2024 selected various ~85-88% aggregate LTL operating ratio (selected ~85-88% → ~80-83% aggregate FY2026 trajectory) + selected continued post-April 2021 ~$800M+ TForce Freight (UPS Freight) acquisition integration + selected continued post-April 2024 ~$1.1B+ Daseke acquisition adding ~$1.5-1.7B aggregate annual specialized + flatbed Truckload revenue + selected $1.80 annual dividend (+15-20% growth post-2024 dividend acceleration; ~13-year continuous dividend track post-2012 NYSE listing) + selected ~$80-150M aggregate annual buybacks + selected ~2.0-2.5x net leverage + investment-grade Baa3/BBB- credit rating drive TFII's primary FY2026 thesis. Founder + Chairman + President + CEO Alain Bédard (~29-year tenure) leadership continues post-1996 Founder + Chairman + CEO appointment focus on LTL cycle (post-2021 TForce Freight integration recovery) + Truckload + Daseke integration + capital return discipline + tuck-in M&A. Risks: Old Dominion Freight Line + XPO + Saia + ArcBest + Estes Express Lines + selected various US LTL + selected various Canadian LTL + Knight-Swift Transportation + Schneider National + J.B. Hunt + Werner Enterprises + Heartland Express + Ryder + selected various US Truckload + selected various aggregate competitive displacement + US LTL cycle (selected various aggregate post-2023 Yellow Freight insolvency-driven aggregate LTL pricing tightness vs selected normalization) + US Truckload cycle (selected post-2022-2024 selected aggregate trough cycle) + selected post-April 2024 Daseke integration considerations + selected post-April 2021 TForce Freight (UPS Freight) integration considerations + selected post-1996-2024 ~$10B+ aggregate cumulative tuck-in M&A integration considerations.