[SXC] SunCoke Energy Thesis 2026: A Cokemaking + Foundry-Coke + Logistics Compounder
SunCoke Energy, Inc. (NYSE: SXC), headquartered in Lisle, Illinois, is a Cokemaking-Foundry-Coke + emerging-multi-cycle-Cokemaking-and-Logistics leader providing distinctive multi-cycle Cokemaking + emerging-Foundry-Coke + emerging-Logistics services to substantial multi-cycle US-Steel-Manufacturer (Cleveland-Cliffs largest-customer + ArcelorMittal + U.S.-Steel + Nucor + Steel-Dynamics) customer base. Distinctive multi-cycle SunCoke-Energy-and-Lisle-IL-and-Cokemaking heritage: founded 1960 as Sunoco-Cokemaking-subsidiary; 2011 Sunoco-SunCoke-Energy-spin-and-NYSE-SXC-IPO; 2013 SunCoke-Energy-Partners-MLP; 2019 SunCoke-Energy-Partners-buy-in (corporate-structure-simplification); 2023 Katherine Gates President-and-CEO. Multi-decade strategic-evolution: 1960 Sunoco-Cokemaking-subsidiary; 2011 Sunoco-SunCoke-Energy-spin-and-NYSE-SXC-IPO; 2013 MLP; 2019 MLP-buy-in; 2023 Katherine Gates CEO; 2020-2025 substantial multi-cycle post-COVID + emerging-Domestic-Cokemaking + emerging-Foundry-Coke + emerging-Logistics + emerging-Cliffs-Steelmaking-Cokemaking-Customer + multi-cycle-disciplined-Foundry-Coke-expansion. Under President & CEO Katherine Gates (since 2023, ~2+ year longtime-SunCoke-Energy-General-Counsel-and-Sunoco entrepreneur), FY2025 closes with selected various aggregate revenue ~$1.85-2.05B, adj. EBITDA ~$245-290M, adj. EPS ~$0.60-1.00, net debt ~$0.45-0.65B, and ~85-88M shares outstanding. The first deep-dive — Cokemaking-and-Foundry-Coke-and-Logistics franchise — covers entire business + SunCoke positioning. Geographic + Employee + Facility + Capacity composition: ~1,300+ employees + ~5 Cokemaking-Foundry-Coke-and-Logistics-facilities + ~4.2-4.5M tons annualized-Cokemaking-Capacity across US-Appalachia-and-Midwest (Indiana-Harbor + Haverhill-OH + Granite-City-IL + Jewell-VA) + emerging-Brazil-Tubarao-Cokemaking. Revenue mix: Cokemaking-and-Foundry-Coke-and-Logistics ~95-99% (Domestic-Cokemaking-largest + Foundry-Coke + Logistics + Cliffs-Steelmaking-Cokemaking-Customer); Emerging-Other ~1-5%. Customer base: US-Steel-Manufacturer (Cleveland-Cliffs largest-customer + ArcelorMittal + U.S.-Steel + Nucor + Steel-Dynamics) + emerging-Foundry-Coke-Customer + emerging-Logistics-Customer + emerging-Brazil-Cokemaking-Customer. Distinctive multi-cycle 2011-Sunoco-SunCoke-Spin + 2019-SunCoke-Energy-Partners-Buy-In. Competes with U.S. Steel (X + 2024-Nippon-Steel-acquisition-pending), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF + Captive-Cokemaking + SunCoke-largest-customer), ArcelorMittal (MT + Captive-Cokemaking), POSCO (PKX + Captive-Cokemaking), Nippon Steel (5401-T + US-Steel-acquisition-pending), JFE Holdings (5411-T), Kobe Steel (5406-T), Tata Steel (500470-NS), Jindal Steel (JINDALSTEL-NS), JSW Steel (JSWSTEEL-NS), Steel Authority of India (SAIL-NS), Baowu Steel (private), Ansteel Group (private), HBIS Group (private), Severstal (CHMF-RU), NLMK (NLMK-RU), Voestalpine (VOE-AT), ThyssenKrupp (TKA-DE), Salzgitter (SZG-DE), Hyundai Steel (004020-KS); Met-Coal-input Warrior Met Coal (HCC), Arch Resources (ARCH), Peabody Energy (BTU), Consol Energy (CEIX + 2024-Core-Natural-Resources-CNR-merger), Core Natural Resources (CNR), Hallador Energy (HNRG), Ramaco Resources (METC), Coronado Global Resources (CRN-AU), Whitehaven Coal (WHC-AU), New Hope Group (NHC-AU), Glencore (GLEN-LN + 2024-Teck-Met-Coal-acquired), Teck Resources (TECK), BHP (BHP), Anglo American (AAL-LN), Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR); Logistics-Customer Norfolk Southern (NSC), CSX (CSX), Canadian National (CNI), Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP), Union Pacific (UNP), BNSF (Berkshire-Hathaway-subsidiary), Genesee & Wyoming (Brookfield-and-GIC-take-private 2019), Watco Companies (private), Grupo México Transportes (GMXT-MX); Foundry-Coke Carbon Industries (private), Asbury Carbons (private), Erie Coke (private), Tonawanda Coke (private); Brazil-Steelmaking Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SID), Gerdau (GGB + Brazil-Steel + emerging-Brazil-Cokemaking), Usiminas (USIM5-BR + Tubarao); other-Steel Nucor (NUE), Steel Dynamics (STLD), Commercial Metals (CMC), Stelco Holdings (STLC-CN), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF). The second deep-dive — Katherine-Gates + 2011-Sunoco-Spin + 2019-MLP-Buy-In + multi-decade compounder thesis — covers Katherine-Gates-CEO (~2+ year longtime-SunCoke-Energy-General-Counsel-and-Sunoco entrepreneur) expertise + Founder Sunoco-Inc-historical-1894 + Sunoco-SunCoke-spin-2011 + multi-cycle-SunCoke-Energy-Capital-Management leadership-continuity, 2011-Sunoco-SunCoke-Energy-spin-and-NYSE-SXC-IPO + 2013-MLP + 2019-MLP-buy-in transformational-platform + multi-cycle-disciplined-Foundry-Coke-and-Logistics-expansion, emerging-Cokemaking + emerging-Foundry-Coke + emerging-Logistics + emerging-Cliffs-Steelmaking-Cokemaking-Customer structural-tailwinds. Multi-cycle reliable-and-emerging-growing-dividend (~$0.48/yr ~4.0-6.0% yield ~5+ year continuous post-2019-MLP-buy-in-restoration) + multi-cycle-modest-share-buyback ($30-100M/yr). Multi-decade compounder thesis combines SunCoke-Energy-and-Lisle-IL ~14+ year heritage (2011 Sunoco-SunCoke-spin + 2013 MLP + 2019 MLP-buy-in + 2023-Katherine-Gates-CEO), ~1,300+ employees + ~5 Cokemaking-Foundry-Coke-facilities + ~4.2-4.5M tons annualized-Cokemaking-Capacity, 2011-Sunoco-SunCoke-spin + 2019-MLP-buy-in + multi-cycle-disciplined-Foundry-Coke-expansion, Katherine Gates + Sunoco + SunCoke expertise, multi-cycle reliable-and-emerging-growing-dividend + multi-cycle-modest-share-buyback + IG-equivalent-emerging balance-sheet, emerging-Cokemaking-and-Foundry-Coke + emerging-Logistics + emerging-Cliffs-Steelmaking-Cokemaking-Customer structural-tailwinds. Capital position is IG-equivalent-emerging (Ba2/BB), dividend-reliable-and-emerging-growing + multi-cycle-modest-share-buyback, conservative-and-Cokemaking-and-Logistics-asset-backed: net debt ~$0.45-0.65B (~1.5-2.5x leverage), Ba2/BB equivalent, $0.15-0.30B liquidity, $0.48/yr dividend (~4.0-6.0% yield, ~40-55% payout, ~5+ year continuous post-2019-MLP-buy-in-restoration) + ~$30-100M/yr buyback + multi-cycle-disciplined-Foundry-Coke-and-Logistics-expansion + emerging-Cokemaking-and-Foundry-Coke-and-Logistics capex, ~85-88M shares. At ~$8-13 per share, equity value ~$685M-1.1B, EV ~$1.1-1.8B, ~8-18x EPS and ~4.0-7.0x EV/EBITDA. Base case: Domestic-Cokemaking constructive + emerging-Foundry-Coke + emerging-Logistics + revenue $1.95-2.20B + adj. EBITDA $265-315M + adj. EPS $0.75-1.20 + dividend hiked + ~5-15% return. Bull case: Domestic-Cokemaking accelerates + emerging-Foundry-Coke inflects-substantially + emerging-Logistics inflects-substantially + emerging-Cliffs-Steelmaking-Cokemaking-Customer inflects + revenue $2.05-2.30B + adj. EPS $0.95-1.45 + dividend hiked + selective-M&A + emerging-strategic-acquisition-target (US-Steel + Cleveland-Cliffs + ArcelorMittal + Nippon-Steel + private-equity-Coal-and-Steel interest) + re-rate 10-22x + 25-50%+ return + takeout-premium-upside. Bear case: Domestic-Cokemaking stresses + emerging-Cliffs-Steelmaking-Cokemaking-Customer disappoints + adj. EPS $0.30-0.45 + de-rate 4-7x + flat-to-substantially-negative.
SunCoke Energy Thesis 2026: A Cokemaking + Foundry-Coke + Logistics Compounder
Key Takeaways
- SunCoke Energy, Inc. (NYSE: SXC), the Lisle-IL-headquartered Cokemaking-Foundry-Coke + emerging-multi-cycle-Cokemaking-and-Logistics leader, closes FY2025 with selected various aggregate revenue ~$1.85-2.05B (~~-5 to +5% YoY-growth driven by Domestic-Cokemaking + emerging-multi-cycle-Foundry-Coke-and-Logistics), adjusted EBITDA ~$245-290M (~~12-14% margins reflecting Cokemaking-pure-play economics), adjusted EPS ~$0.60-1.00, net debt ~$0.45-0.65B (~~1.5-2.5x leverage Cokemaking-and-Logistics-asset-backed), and ~~85-88M shares under President & CEO Katherine Gates (since 2023, ~~2+ year longtime-SunCoke-Energy-General-Counsel-and-Sunoco entrepreneur); Founder Sunoco-Inc-historical-1894 + Sunoco-SunCoke-spin-2011 + multi-cycle-SunCoke-Energy-Capital-Management.
- Operates substantial multi-cycle ~~1,300+ employees + ~~5 Cokemaking-Foundry-Coke-and-emerging-Logistics-facilities + ~~4.2-4.5M tons annualized-Cokemaking-Capacity providing distinctive multi-cycle Cokemaking + emerging-Foundry-Coke + emerging-Logistics platform.
- Distinctive multi-cycle SunCoke-Energy-and-Lisle-IL-and-Cokemaking heritage: founded 1960 as Sunoco-Cokemaking-subsidiary + 2011 Sunoco-SunCoke-Energy-spin-and-NYSE-SXC-IPO + 2013 SunCoke-Energy-Partners-MLP + 2019 SunCoke-Energy-Partners-buy-in + 2023 Katherine Gates President-and-CEO + multi-cycle-disciplined-Foundry-Coke-expansion.
- Distinctive multi-cycle Cokemaking-and-Foundry-Coke-and-Logistics (~~95-99% revenue, distinctive multi-cycle-Domestic-Cokemaking-largest-business + multi-cycle-emerging-Foundry-Coke + multi-cycle-emerging-Logistics + multi-cycle-emerging-Cliffs-Steelmaking-Cokemaking-Customer) + Emerging-Other (~~1-5% revenue) platform.
- Customer base: substantial multi-cycle US-Steel-Manufacturer (Cleveland-Cliffs largest-customer + ArcelorMittal + U.S.-Steel + Nucor + Steel-Dynamics) + emerging-multi-cycle-Foundry-Coke-Customer + multi-cycle-emerging-Logistics-Customer + emerging-multi-cycle-Brazil-Cokemaking-Customer.
- IG-equivalent-emerging (Ba2/BB) balance sheet, multi-cycle reliable-and-emerging-growing-dividend (~$0.48/yr ~~4.0-6.0% yield ~~5+ year continuous post-2019-MLP-buy-in-restoration) + multi-cycle-modest-share-buyback ($30-100M/yr), FY2026 turns on Domestic-Cokemaking + emerging-multi-cycle-Foundry-Coke + emerging-multi-cycle-Logistics + multi-cycle-disciplined-Foundry-Coke-and-Logistics-expansion + Katherine Gates-strategic-execution.
Company Background
SunCoke Energy, Inc. (NYSE: SXC), headquartered in Lisle, Illinois, is a Cokemaking-Foundry-Coke + emerging-multi-cycle-Cokemaking-and-Logistics leader providing distinctive multi-cycle Cokemaking + emerging-Foundry-Coke + emerging-Logistics services to substantial multi-cycle US-Steel-Manufacturer (Cleveland-Cliffs largest-customer + ArcelorMittal + U.S.-Steel + Nucor + Steel-Dynamics) customer base. The company has a distinctive multi-cycle SunCoke-Energy-and-Lisle-IL-and-Cokemaking heritage: founded 1960 as Sunoco-Cokemaking-subsidiary; 2011 Sunoco-SunCoke-Energy-spin-and-NYSE-SXC-IPO (Pure-Play-Cokemaking-creation); 2013 SunCoke-Energy-Partners-MLP; 2019 SunCoke-Energy-Partners-buy-in (corporate-structure-simplification); 2023 Katherine Gates President-and-CEO; multi-cycle-disciplined-Foundry-Coke-and-Logistics-expansion.
Multi-decade strategic-evolution: 1960 Sunoco-Cokemaking-subsidiary; 2011 Sunoco-SunCoke-Energy-spin-and-NYSE-SXC-IPO; 2013 SunCoke-Energy-Partners-MLP; 2019 SunCoke-Energy-Partners-buy-in; 2023 Katherine Gates CEO; 2020-2025 substantial multi-cycle post-COVID + emerging-Domestic-Cokemaking + emerging-Foundry-Coke + emerging-Logistics + emerging-Cliffs-Steelmaking-Cokemaking-Customer + multi-cycle-disciplined-Foundry-Coke-expansion.
Under President & CEO Katherine Gates (since 2023, ~~2+ year longtime-SunCoke-Energy-General-Counsel-and-Sunoco entrepreneur), FY2025 closes with selected various aggregate revenue ~$1.85-2.05B, adjusted EBITDA ~$245-290M, adjusted EPS ~$0.60-1.00, net debt ~$0.45-0.65B (~1.5-2.5x leverage Cokemaking-and-Logistics-asset-backed), and ~~85-88M shares outstanding.
Deep-Dive 1: Cokemaking-and-Foundry-Coke-and-Logistics Franchise
The first deep-dive — Cokemaking-and-Foundry-Coke-and-Logistics franchise — covers entire Cokemaking + emerging-multi-cycle-Foundry-Coke + emerging-multi-cycle-Logistics business + distinctive multi-cycle SunCoke-Energy positioning.
Geographic + Employee + Facility + Capacity composition: ~~1,300+ employees + ~~5 Cokemaking-Foundry-Coke-and-Logistics-facilities + ~~4.2-4.5M tons annualized-Cokemaking-Capacity across US-Appalachia-and-Midwest (Indiana-Harbor + Haverhill-OH + Granite-City-IL + Jewell-VA) + emerging-multi-cycle-Brazil-Tubarao-Cokemaking.
Revenue mix:
- Cokemaking-and-Foundry-Coke-and-Logistics (~~95-99% revenue, distinctive multi-cycle-Domestic-Cokemaking-largest-business + multi-cycle-emerging-Foundry-Coke + multi-cycle-emerging-Logistics + multi-cycle-emerging-Cliffs-Steelmaking-Cokemaking-Customer).
- Emerging-Other (~~1-5% revenue).
Customer base: US-Steel-Manufacturer (Cleveland-Cliffs largest-customer + ArcelorMittal + U.S.-Steel + Nucor + Steel-Dynamics) + emerging-Foundry-Coke-Customer + emerging-Logistics-Customer + emerging-Brazil-Cokemaking-Customer.
Distinctive multi-cycle 2011-Sunoco-SunCoke-Spin + 2019-SunCoke-Energy-Partners-Buy-In + multi-cycle-disciplined-Foundry-Coke-expansion.
Emerging structural-tailwinds: emerging-multi-cycle US-Cokemaking-and-Foundry-Coke + emerging-Cliffs-Steelmaking-Cokemaking-Customer + emerging-Logistics-growth + emerging-Brazil-Tubarao-Brasil demand environment.
FY2026 catalyst is Domestic-Cokemaking + emerging-Foundry-Coke + emerging-Logistics + emerging-Cliffs-Steelmaking-Cokemaking-Customer + multi-cycle-disciplined-Foundry-Coke-and-Logistics-expansion + Katherine Gates-strategic-execution.
Competes in Cokemaking-and-Foundry-Coke space with U.S. Steel (X + 2024-Nippon-Steel-acquisition-pending + US-Steel-Captive-Cokemaking), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF + Captive-Cokemaking + SunCoke-largest-customer), ArcelorMittal (MT + Captive-Cokemaking), POSCO (PKX + Captive-Cokemaking), Nippon Steel (5401-T + US-Steel-acquisition-pending), JFE Holdings (5411-T), Kobe Steel (5406-T), Tata Steel (500470-NS), Jindal Steel (JINDALSTEL-NS), JSW Steel (JSWSTEEL-NS), Steel Authority of India (SAIL-NS), Baowu Steel (private), Ansteel Group (private), HBIS Group (private), Severstal (CHMF-RU), NLMK (NLMK-RU), Voestalpine (VOE-AT), ThyssenKrupp (TKA-DE), Salzgitter (SZG-DE), Hyundai Steel (004020-KS); Met-Coal-input Warrior Met Coal (HCC), Arch Resources (ARCH), Peabody Energy (BTU), Consol Energy (CEIX + 2024-Core-Natural-Resources-CNR-merger), Core Natural Resources (CNR + 2024-Arch-Consol-merger), Hallador Energy (HNRG), Ramaco Resources (METC), Coronado Global Resources (CRN-AU), Whitehaven Coal (WHC-AU), New Hope Group (NHC-AU), Glencore (GLEN-LN + 2024-Teck-Met-Coal-acquired), Teck Resources (TECK), BHP (BHP), Anglo American (AAL-LN), Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR); Logistics-Customer Norfolk Southern (NSC), CSX (CSX), Canadian National (CNI), Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP), Union Pacific (UNP), BNSF (Berkshire-Hathaway-subsidiary), Genesee & Wyoming (Brookfield-and-GIC-take-private 2019), Watco Companies (private), Grupo México Transportes (GMXT-MX); Foundry-Coke Carbon Industries (private), Asbury Carbons (private), Erie Coke (private), Tonawanda Coke (private); Brazil-Steelmaking Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SID), Gerdau (GGB + Brazil-Steel + emerging-Brazil-Cokemaking), Usiminas (USIM5-BR + Tubarao); other-Steel Nucor (NUE), Steel Dynamics (STLD), Commercial Metals (CMC), Stelco Holdings (STLC-CN), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF).
Deep-Dive 2: Katherine-Gates + 2011-Sunoco-Spin-and-2019-MLP-Buy-In + Multi-Decade Compounder Thesis
The second deep-dive — Katherine-Gates + 2011-Sunoco-SunCoke-spin + 2019-SunCoke-Energy-Partners-buy-in + multi-decade compounder thesis — covers distinctive multi-cycle Katherine-Gates-CEO (~~2+ year longtime-SunCoke-Energy-General-Counsel-and-Sunoco entrepreneur) expertise + Founder Sunoco-Inc-historical-1894 + Sunoco-SunCoke-spin-2011 + multi-cycle-SunCoke-Energy-Capital-Management leadership-continuity, 2011-Sunoco-SunCoke-Energy-spin-and-NYSE-SXC-IPO + 2013-SunCoke-Energy-Partners-MLP + 2019-MLP-buy-in transformational-platform + multi-cycle-disciplined-Foundry-Coke-and-Logistics-expansion, emerging-multi-cycle US-Cokemaking + emerging-Foundry-Coke + emerging-Logistics + emerging-Cliffs-Steelmaking-Cokemaking-Customer structural-tailwinds.
Katherine Gates CEO leadership: CEO since 2023 + ~~2+ year longtime-SunCoke-Energy-General-Counsel-and-Sunoco entrepreneur providing distinctive multi-cycle-operational-discipline + multi-cycle-strategic-direction + 2023-CEO-transition + multi-cycle-disciplined-Foundry-Coke-and-Logistics-expansion expertise.
2011-Sunoco-SunCoke-Spin-and-NYSE-SXC-IPO + 2013-MLP + 2019-MLP-Buy-In transformational-platform: distinctive substantial 2011 Sunoco-SunCoke-Energy-spin + 2013 SunCoke-Energy-Partners-MLP + 2019 SunCoke-Energy-Partners-buy-in providing distinctive multi-cycle SunCoke-Energy-and-emerging-multi-cycle-SunCoke-Energy.
Multi-cycle reliable-and-emerging-growing-dividend + multi-cycle-modest-share-buyback: distinctive multi-cycle reliable-and-emerging-growing-dividend (~$0.48/yr ~~4.0-6.0% yield, ~~40-55% payout, ~~5+ year continuous post-2019-MLP-buy-in-restoration) + multi-cycle-modest-share-buyback ($30-100M/yr).
Multi-decade compounder thesis combines distinctive multi-cycle SunCoke-Energy-and-Lisle-IL ~~14+ year heritage (2011 Sunoco-SunCoke-spin + 2013 MLP + 2019 MLP-buy-in + 2023-Katherine-Gates-CEO), ~~1,300+ employees + ~~5 Cokemaking-Foundry-Coke-facilities + ~~4.2-4.5M tons annualized-Cokemaking-Capacity, 2011-Sunoco-SunCoke-spin + 2019-MLP-buy-in + multi-cycle-disciplined-Foundry-Coke-expansion, Katherine Gates + Sunoco + SunCoke expertise, multi-cycle reliable-and-emerging-growing-dividend + multi-cycle-modest-share-buyback + IG-equivalent-emerging balance-sheet, emerging-Cokemaking-and-Foundry-Coke + emerging-Logistics + emerging-Cliffs-Steelmaking-Cokemaking-Customer structural-tailwinds.
Consolidated Capital Position + Balance Sheet
Capital position is investment-grade-equivalent-emerging (Ba2/BB), dividend-reliable-and-emerging-growing + multi-cycle-modest-share-buyback, conservative-and-Cokemaking-and-Logistics-asset-backed: net debt ~$0.45-0.65B (~1.5-2.5x leverage), Ba2/BB equivalent, $0.15-0.30B liquidity, $0.48/yr dividend (~4.0-6.0% yield, ~40-55% payout, ~5+ year continuous post-2019-MLP-buy-in-restoration) + ~$30-100M/yr buyback + multi-cycle-disciplined-Foundry-Coke-and-Logistics-expansion + emerging-Cokemaking-and-Foundry-Coke-and-Logistics capex, ~~85-88M shares.
Key Core Metrics
| Metric | FY2025E Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ~$1.85-2.05B | Cokemaking + Foundry-Coke + Logistics |
| Revenue YoY Growth | ~-5 to +5% | Domestic-Cokemaking + emerging-Foundry-Coke-and-Logistics |
| Adjusted EBITDA | ~$245-290M | ~12-14% margins Cokemaking-pure-play |
| Adjusted EPS | ~$0.60-1.00 | Multi-cycle-Cokemaking |
| Employee Count | ~1,300+ | Lisle-IL-HQ + 5-Multi-Facility |
| Cokemaking-and-Logistics Facilities | ~5 | 4 US + 1 Brazil |
| Annualized Cokemaking Capacity | ~4.2-4.5M tons | Multi-cycle-emerging-capacity |
| Cokemaking-and-Foundry-Coke-and-Logistics Revenue Share | ~95-99% | Largest-business |
| Net Debt | ~$0.45-0.65B | ~1.5-2.5x leverage |
| Credit Rating | Ba2/BB | Multi-cycle-emerging-IG |
| Dividend | ~$0.48/yr | ~4.0-6.0% yield, ~40-55% payout, ~5+ year continuous |
| Buyback | ~$30-100M/yr | Multi-cycle-modest discipline |
| Shares Outstanding | ~85-88M | Multi-cycle-modest-share-buyback |
Market Evaluation
At ~$8-13 per share, equity value ~$685M-1.1B, EV ~$1.1-1.8B, providing ~~8-18x EPS and ~~4.0-7.0x EV/EBITDA — discounted-Cokemaking multiple consistent with multi-cycle 2011-Sunoco-SunCoke-spin + 2019-MLP-buy-in + emerging-multi-cycle US-Cokemaking-and-Foundry-Coke + emerging-Cliffs-Steelmaking-Cokemaking-Customer tailwinds.
Base case: Domestic-Cokemaking constructive + emerging-Foundry-Coke + emerging-Logistics + revenue $1.95-2.20B + adj. EBITDA $265-315M + adj. EPS $0.75-1.20 + dividend hiked + ~5-15% return.
Bull case: Domestic-Cokemaking accelerates + emerging-Foundry-Coke inflects-substantially + emerging-Logistics inflects-substantially + emerging-Cliffs-Steelmaking-Cokemaking-Customer inflects + revenue $2.05-2.30B + adj. EPS $0.95-1.45 + dividend hiked + selective-M&A + emerging-strategic-acquisition-target (US-Steel + Cleveland-Cliffs + ArcelorMittal + Nippon-Steel + private-equity-Coal-and-Steel interest) + re-rate 10-22x + 25-50%+ return + takeout-premium-upside.
Bear case: Domestic-Cokemaking stresses + emerging-Cliffs-Steelmaking-Cokemaking-Customer disappoints + adj. EPS $0.30-0.45 + de-rate 4-7x + flat-to-substantially-negative.
FY2026 turns on Domestic-Cokemaking + emerging-Foundry-Coke + emerging-Logistics + emerging-Cliffs-Steelmaking-Cokemaking-Customer + multi-cycle-disciplined-Foundry-Coke-expansion + Katherine Gates-strategic-execution.
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