[RCI] Rogers Communications Thesis 2026: Shaw Integration Drives Canadian Wireless Plus Cable Convergence
Rogers Communications Inc. (NYSE: RCI) FY2025 revenue ~C$20-21B (~$14-15B; +0-3%) with adj. EPS ~C$4.40-4.85 reflecting continued post-April 2023 ~C$26B aggregate Shaw Communications acquisition integration completion + selected post-2024 ~C$1.0-1.2B aggregate annual cost synergies execution + selected post-2024 Wireless ~C$11-12B + Cable ~C$5.5-6B + Media ~C$2.5-3B segment performance under continued President + CEO Tony Staffieri (~3-year tenure since January 2022). One of Canada's largest telecommunications + media + cable + wireless service providers. Founded 1960 as Rogers Communications Holdings by Ted Rogers in Toronto Canada (~65-year heritage); selected post-1986 TSX listing; selected post-2003 NYSE listing; selected post-November 2021 Rogers family governance dispute; selected post-January 2022 Tony Staffieri CEO appointment; selected post-April 2023 ~C$26B Shaw Communications acquisition + Freedom Mobile ~C$2.85B divestiture. Headquartered in Toronto Canada; ~25,000+ employees globally with ~C$20-21B revenue. Three primary business segments: Wireless (~55% revenue ~C$11-12B), Cable (~30% ~C$5.5-6B; post-Shaw integrated), Media (~12% ~C$2.5-3B). Post-April 2023 Shaw integration cost synergies cycle: ~C$26B aggregate Shaw acquisition + Freedom Mobile divestiture; ~C$1.0-1.2B aggregate annual cost synergies execution toward ~C$3-4B aggregate annualized run-rate by FY2026; FY2026 catalyst: continued cost synergies. Wireless + Cable convergence: ~10M+ Canadian wireless customers; ~30%+ Canadian wireless market share alongside BCE + TELUS; ~95%+ Canadian urban 5G coverage; ~C$58-62 monthly mobile ARPU; post-Shaw Western Canada + Ontario broadband + IPTV. Capital return + post-Shaw deleveraging: ~C$2.00-2.05 annual dividend FY2025 (~+0% growth — selected post-Shaw integration deleveraging priority); modest buybacks; aggregate capital return ~C$1.1-1.2B; net leverage ~4.5-5.0x (post-Shaw deleveraging); investment-grade Baa2/BBB credit rating; continued post-2024 deleveraging path toward ~3.5-4.0x. President + CEO Tony Staffieri since January 2022 (~3-year tenure); CFO Glenn Brandt; selected Edward Rogers III Chairman + Rogers family ~30%+ aggregate ownership via dual-class share structure. FY2026 thesis: post-April 2023 Shaw integration cost synergies + Wireless + Cable convergence + post-Shaw deleveraging + Media + Toronto Blue Jays + selected potential post-deleveraging dividend acceleration. Risks: Canadian wireless competition (BCE + TELUS), post-Shaw integration execution, capex + FTTH execution, Rogers family + dual-class share governance, USD/CAD volatility.
[RCI] Rogers Communications Thesis 2026: Shaw Integration Drives Canadian Wireless Plus Cable Convergence
Key Takeaways
- Rogers Communications Inc. (NYSE: RCI) FY2025 revenue
C$20-21B ($14-15B; +0-3% YoY) with adj. EPS ~C$4.40-4.85 reflecting continued post-April 2023 ~C$26B aggregate Shaw Communications acquisition integration completion + selected post-2024 ~C$1.0-1.2B aggregate annual cost synergies execution + selected post-2024 Wireless ~C$11-12B + Cable ~C$5.5-6B + Media ~C$2.5-3B segment performance under continued President + CEO Tony Staffieri (~3-year tenure since January 2022; ex-Rogers CFO 2012-2018 + ex-various Rogers + selected various roles + ~25-year industry career; succeeded Joe Natale 2017-November 2021 retired who led Rogers through pre-Shaw period; selected Edward Rogers III Chairman + selected Rogers family ~30%+ aggregate ownership control via dual-class share structure). - Post-April 2023 Shaw integration cost synergies cycle: post-April 2023 ~C$26B aggregate Shaw Communications acquisition (~C$16B equity + ~C$10B debt assumption) + post-April 2023 Freedom Mobile ~C$2.85B divestiture to Vidéotron creating selected combined Rogers Communications post-Shaw entity; selected continued post-2024 ~C$1.0-1.2B aggregate annual cost synergies execution (~C$3-4B aggregate annualized run-rate by FY2026); FY2026 catalyst: continued cost synergies + selected potential FCF margin expansion.
- Wireless + Cable convergence: ~C$11-12B Wireless revenue (~10M+ Canadian wireless customers; selected ~30%+ Canadian wireless market share alongside BCE + TELUS) + ~C$5.5-6B Cable revenue (post-April 2023 Shaw integrated; Western Canada + Ontario broadband + IPTV); selected ~95%+ Canadian urban 5G coverage; selected continued mobile ARPU expansion (~C$58-62 monthly).
- Capital return: ~C$2.00-2.05 annual dividend FY2025 (~C$0.50-0.5125/quarter; selected post-2024 ~+0% growth post-2024 C$2.00 - selected continued post-Shaw integration deleveraging priority); selected modest opportunistic buybacks; ~C$1.1-1.2B aggregate FY2025 capital return; selected post-2024 net leverage ratio ~4.5-5.0x net debt-to-EBITDA target (post-Shaw integration deleveraging); investment-grade Baa2/BBB credit rating; FY2026 catalyst: continued post-2024 net leverage normalization + selected potential dividend acceleration post-deleveraging.
Company Background
Rogers Communications Inc. (NYSE: RCI) is one of Canada's largest telecommunications + media + cable + wireless service providers with FY2025 revenue C$20-21B ($14-15B; +0-3% YoY) and adj. EPS ~C$4.40-4.85 reflecting continued post-April 2023 ~C$26B aggregate Shaw Communications acquisition integration. The company employs ~25,000+ globally with operations across Canadian wireless + cable + broadband + IPTV + Rogers Sports & Media broadcasting + selected various.
Founded 1960 as Rogers Communications Holdings by Ted Rogers in Toronto Canada (~65-year heritage); selected post-1986 Toronto Stock Exchange listing; selected post-2003 NYSE listing; selected post-2007 ~C$1B Cable + Wireless reorganization + Rogers Wireless integration; selected post-2014 Rogers acquisition Mobilicity ~C$465M; selected post-2018 strategic positioning + selected various M&A; selected post-November 2021 Edward Rogers III + Rogers family + selected institutional shareholder governance dispute; selected post-January 2022 Tony Staffieri CEO appointment; selected post-April 2023 ~C$26B aggregate Shaw Communications acquisition completion (selected major Western Canada cable + wireless expansion); selected post-April 2023 Freedom Mobile ~C$2.85B divestiture to Vidéotron (FTC + Competition Bureau Canada antitrust condition).
Headquartered in Toronto Canada; ~25,000+ employees globally with ~C$20-21B revenue. Three primary business segments: Wireless (~55% revenue ~C$11-12B — ~10M+ Canadian wireless customers; ~30%+ Canadian wireless market share alongside BCE + TELUS), Cable (~30% ~C$5.5-6B — Western Canada + Ontario broadband + IPTV; post-April 2023 Shaw integrated), Media (~12% ~C$2.5-3B — Rogers Sports & Media including Sportsnet + Citytv + selected various TV + radio + selected various Toronto Blue Jays).
President + CEO Tony Staffieri since January 2022 (~3-year tenure); succeeded Joe Natale (CEO 2017-November 2021 retired); Staffieri ex-Rogers CFO 2012-2018 + ex-various Rogers + selected various roles + ~25-year industry career; selected continued strategic priorities include post-April 2023 Shaw integration + selected post-2024 cost synergies execution + selected continued post-Shaw deleveraging. CFO Glenn Brandt (since 2022; ex-Rogers various roles + ~25-year company career); selected Edward Rogers III Chairman + Rogers family ~30%+ aggregate ownership via dual-class share structure.
Post-April 2023 Shaw Integration Cost Synergies Cycle
Rogers post-April 2023 Shaw Communications integration cost synergies:
- Aggregate transaction: ~C$26B aggregate (~C$16B equity + ~C$10B debt assumption)
- Selected post-April 2023 Freedom Mobile divestiture: ~C$2.85B divestiture to Vidéotron (FTC + Competition Bureau Canada antitrust condition)
- Aggregate cost synergies: selected ~C$1.0-1.2B aggregate annual cost synergies execution
- Annualized run-rate: ~C$3-4B aggregate annualized run-rate target by FY2026
- Selected post-2024 selected various integration milestones: continued post-2024 various integration
FY2026 catalyst: continued cost synergies + ~C$0.20-0.40 incremental annual EPS contribution.
Wireless + Cable Convergence
Rogers Wireless + Cable convergence:
- Wireless (~55% revenue ~C$11-12B): ~10M+ Canadian wireless customers; ~30%+ Canadian wireless market share alongside BCE + TELUS; ~95%+ Canadian urban 5G coverage; ~C$58-62 monthly mobile ARPU
- Cable (~30% ~C$5.5-6B): post-April 2023 Shaw integrated Western Canada + Ontario broadband + IPTV; selected continued post-2024 selected FTTH expansion
- Selected post-2024 Wireless + Cable convergence: continued post-2024 wireless + cable bundling + selected various
- Media (~12% ~C$2.5-3B): Rogers Sports & Media including Sportsnet + Citytv + selected various TV + radio + selected Toronto Blue Jays
FY2026 catalyst: continued Wireless + Cable convergence + ~C$0.10-0.20 incremental EPS contribution.
Capital Return + Post-Shaw Deleveraging
Rogers capital return + selected post-Shaw deleveraging:
- Ordinary dividend: ~C$2.00-2.05 annual FY2025 (~C$0.50-0.5125/quarter; selected post-2024 ~+0% growth post-2024 C$2.00 - selected post-Shaw integration deleveraging priority)
- Buybacks: selected modest opportunistic
- Aggregate capital return: ~C$1.1-1.2B FY2025
- Net leverage ratio: ~4.5-5.0x net debt-to-EBITDA target (post-Shaw integration deleveraging)
- Selected continued post-2024 deleveraging: continued post-2024 selected various deleveraging path toward ~3.5-4.0x
FY2026 catalyst: continued post-2024 net leverage normalization + selected potential post-deleveraging dividend acceleration.
Risks
- Canadian wireless competition: continued Canadian ~3-major-carrier wireless competitive intensity (BCE + TELUS)
- Post-Shaw integration: continued post-April 2023 Shaw integration execution
- Selected various capex: continued post-2024 capex + FTTH execution
- Rogers family + dual-class share governance: ~30%+ Rogers family aggregate ownership control governance
- Currency: USD/CAD volatility could compress USD-reported earnings
Key Core Metrics
| Metric | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2026 outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | C$20-21B | C$20.6B | C$19.4B | C$15.4B | C$20.5-22B |
| Adj. EBITDA | C$9.5-10B | C$9.5B | C$8.4B | C$6.5B | C$10-10.5B |
| Adj. EPS (CAD) | C$4.40-4.85 | C$4.20 | C$4.05 | C$3.85 | C$4.65-5.10 |
| Adj. EBITDA margin | 47-48% | 46% | 43% | 42% | 47-48% |
| Capex | C$3.5-3.8B | C$3.6B | C$3.4B | C$2.7B | C$3.3-3.6B |
| Capital return | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2026 outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend | C$2.00-2.05 | C$2.00 | C$2.00-2.10 |
| Buybacks | modest | modest | modest |
| Total return | C$1.1-1.2B | C$1.1B | C$1.1-1.3B |
| Net leverage | 4.5-5.0x | 4.7x | 4.0-4.5x |
Market Evaluation
Rogers Communications trades at selected ~13-16x FY2026 P/E discount vs BCE (~14-17x) + TELUS (~16-19x) + selected various Canadian + global telecom peers reflecting selected post-April 2023 Shaw Communications integration deleveraging cycle (~4.5-5.0x net leverage) + selected ~30%+ Rogers family dual-class share governance + selected continued ~3-major-carrier Canadian wireless market structure. Selected re-rating catalysts include: (1) continued post-April 2023 Shaw integration cost synergies + ~C$1.0-1.2B annual run-rate; (2) Wireless + Cable convergence + ~C$58-62 mobile ARPU; (3) post-Shaw deleveraging toward ~4.0-4.5x net leverage; (4) Media + Toronto Blue Jays + selected various; (5) selected potential post-deleveraging dividend acceleration.
Shaw Integration Cost Synergies Strategic Differentiation Deep Dive
Rogers Communications post-April 2023 ~C$26B aggregate Shaw Communications acquisition integration represents selected primary strategic differentiation thesis vs Canadian + selected various global telecom peers (BCE + TELUS + Rogers + selected various). Selected post-April 2023 ~C$26B aggregate Shaw acquisition (~C$16B equity + ~C$10B debt assumption) + post-April 2023 Freedom Mobile ~C$2.85B divestiture to Vidéotron (FTC + Competition Bureau Canada antitrust condition) created selected combined Rogers Communications post-Shaw entity with selected major Western Canada cable + wireless market share leadership combined with selected continued Ontario + Atlantic Canada market share. Selected aggregate ~C$1.0-1.2B aggregate annual cost synergies execution toward selected ~C$3-4B aggregate annualized run-rate target by FY2026 supports selected continued post-Shaw EBITDA margin expansion (~47-48% FY2025 vs ~42% pre-Shaw FY2022). Selected continued post-Shaw deleveraging path from ~4.5-5.0x net leverage ratio toward selected ~3.5-4.0x post-2026 supports selected continued post-deleveraging dividend acceleration potential. FY2026 catalyst: continued cost synergies + ~C$0.20-0.40 incremental annual EPS contribution.
FY2026 thesis: post-April 2023 Shaw integration cost synergies + Wireless + Cable convergence + post-Shaw deleveraging + Media + Toronto Blue Jays + selected potential post-deleveraging dividend acceleration.
