[PAC] Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico Thesis 2026: Mexico Pacific Airport Cycle Drives Tariff Rate Reset
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV (NYSE: PAC) FY2025 revenue ~MXN 35-38B (~$1.85-2.00B; +5-12%) with diluted EPS ~MXN 24-28 (~$1.25-1.50 per ADR) reflecting continued post-2024 ~50-55M aggregate aggregate annual passenger traffic across selected 12 Mexico Pacific airport concessions + selected post-2024 selected various Master Development Program (MDP) tariff rate reset cycle + selected continued post-2024 ~$3.0-3.5B aggregate FY2025-2030 capex committed under continued President + CEO Raul Revuelta since 2018 (~7-year tenure as GAP CEO). One of the largest Mexico Pacific airport concession operators. Founded 1998 as Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV via Mexican government privatization (~27-year heritage); selected post-February 2006 NYSE ADR listing IPO; selected post-2018 Raul Revuelta CEO appointment; selected post-2024 selected various MDP tariff rate reset cycle. Headquartered in Guadalajara Mexico; ~1,400+ employees globally with ~MXN 35-38B revenue. Two primary business segments: Aeronautical (~70%+ ~MXN 24-26B), Non-Aeronautical (~30% ~MXN 11-12B). Geographic mix: Mexico ~95%+ + Jamaica + Montego Bay + Kingston + selected various ~5%. Mexico Pacific airport concession cycle: ~50-55M aggregate aggregate annual passenger traffic; 12 Mexico Pacific airport concessions; US-Mexico cross-border + Mexico domestic passenger traffic recovery. Tariff rate reset + MDP: ~+8-12% aggregate tariff rate increase potential; ~$3.0-3.5B aggregate FY2025-2030 capex committed. President + CEO Raul Revuelta since 2018 (~7-year tenure); CFO Saul Villarreal. Capital return + dividend track: ~MXN 17-21 aggregate annual dividend per common share FY2025 (~+10-15% growth; ~13-year continuous dividend track post-2012); modest opportunistic buybacks; aggregate capital return ~MXN 6-8B; net leverage ratio ~1.5-2.0x; investment-grade Baa1/BBB+ credit rating. FY2026 thesis: Mexico Pacific airport concession cycle + Master Development Program tariff rate reset + ~MXN 17-21 annual dividend + ~13-year continuous dividend track + ~MXN 6-9B aggregate annual capital return + selected continued post-2024 ~$3.0-3.5B aggregate FY2025-2030 capex commitment + selected potential post-2024 dividend acceleration. Risks: Mexico macro + GDP cycle, US-Mexico cross-border passenger traffic, ASUR + OMAB competition, MXN/USD volatility, AFAC regulatory.
[PAC] Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico Thesis 2026: Mexico Pacific Airport Cycle Drives Tariff Rate Reset
Key Takeaways
- Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV (NYSE: PAC) FY2025 revenue
MXN 35-38B ($1.85-2.00B; +5-12% YoY) with diluted EPSMXN 24-28 ($1.25-1.50 per ADR) reflecting continued post-2024 ~50-55M aggregate aggregate annual passenger traffic across selected 12 Mexico Pacific airport concessions (selected primary Guadalajara + selected various Tijuana + Puerto Vallarta + Los Cabos + Hermosillo + Guanajuato + Mexicali + La Paz + Aguascalientes + Manzanillo + Morelia + selected various) plus selected post-2024 selected various Master Development Program (MDP) tariff rate reset cycle plus selected continued post-2024 ~$3.0-3.5B aggregate FY2025-2030 capex committed under continued President + CEO Raul Revuelta since 2018 (~7-year tenure as GAP CEO; ex-GAP CFO + ex-various roles + ~25-year company career). - Mexico Pacific airport concession cycle: ~50-55M aggregate aggregate annual passenger traffic FY2025; selected primary 12 Mexico Pacific airport concessions (Guadalajara + selected various Tijuana + Puerto Vallarta + Los Cabos + Hermosillo + Guanajuato + Mexicali + La Paz + Aguascalientes + Manzanillo + Morelia + selected various); selected continued post-2024 selected various US-Mexico cross-border + selected various Mexico domestic passenger traffic recovery.
- Tariff rate reset + Master Development Program: post-2024 selected various Master Development Program (MDP) tariff rate reset cycle (selected post-2024 ~+8-12% aggregate tariff rate increase potential); selected ~$3.0-3.5B aggregate FY2025-2030 capex committed under selected various MDP framework; selected continued post-2024 ~MXN 2-3 incremental annual EPS contribution.
- Capital return:
MXN 17-21 aggregate annual dividend per common share FY2025 ($0.95-1.15 per ADR; selected post-2024 ~+10-15% growth post-2024 ~MXN 17 dividend; selected ~13-year continuous dividend track post-2012 NYSE ADR listing); selected modest opportunistic buybacks; ~MXN 6-8B aggregate FY2025 capital return; selected post-2024 net leverage ratio ~1.5-2.0x net debt-to-adj. EBITDA target; investment-grade Baa1/BBB+ credit rating; FY2026 catalyst: continued capital return + selected potential post-2024 dividend acceleration + selected potential post-2024 MDP tariff rate reset.
Company Background
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV (NYSE: PAC) is one of the largest Mexico Pacific airport concession operators with FY2025 revenue MXN 35-38B ($1.85-2.00B; +5-12% YoY) and diluted EPS MXN 24-28 ($1.25-1.50 per ADR) reflecting continued post-2024 ~50-55M aggregate aggregate annual passenger traffic across selected 12 Mexico Pacific airport concessions + selected continued post-2024 selected various Master Development Program (MDP) tariff rate reset cycle. The company employs ~1,400+ globally with operations across selected major Guadalajara Mexico + selected various 12 Mexico Pacific airport concessions + selected various Jamaica + Montego Bay + Kingston + selected various.
Founded 1998 as Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV via Mexican government privatization of selected 12 Mexico Pacific airport concessions (~27-year heritage; selected post-1998 closing creating one of selected three Mexican private airport concession holding company); selected post-February 2006 NYSE ADR listing IPO; selected post-2006-2024 selected various Mexico Pacific airport concession + selected various Master Development Program (MDP) cycle expansion; selected post-2018 Raul Revuelta CEO appointment; selected post-2024 selected various Master Development Program (MDP) tariff rate reset cycle.
Headquartered in Guadalajara Mexico; ~1,400+ employees globally with ~MXN 35-38B revenue. Two primary business segments: Aeronautical (~70%+ revenue ~MXN 24-26B — selected primary passenger traffic + selected various aeronautical), Non-Aeronautical (~30% revenue ~MXN 11-12B — selected primary commercial + selected various retail + selected various ground handling + selected various Diversification). Geographic mix: Mexico ~95%+ revenue (~MXN 33-36B — primary 12 Mexico Pacific airport concessions) + Jamaica + Montego Bay + Kingston + selected various ~5% (~MXN 1.5B; selected post-2015 Jamaica concession acquisition).
President + CEO Raul Revuelta since 2018 (~7-year tenure as GAP CEO); selected ex-GAP CFO + ex-various roles + ~25-year company career; selected continued strategic priorities include Mexico Pacific airport concession leadership + selected continued post-2024 selected various Master Development Program (MDP) tariff rate reset + selected continued post-2024 selected various US-Mexico cross-border + Mexico domestic passenger traffic recovery + selected continued post-2024 ~$3.0-3.5B aggregate FY2025-2030 capex commitment + selected continued post-2024 capital return acceleration. CFO Saul Villarreal (since 2018; ex-GAP VP Finance + ex-various roles + ~25-year company career).
Mexico Pacific Airport Concession Cycle
GAP Mexico Pacific airport concession franchise:
- Aggregate annual passenger traffic: ~50-55M aggregate FY2025
- 12 Mexico Pacific airport concessions: selected primary Guadalajara + selected various Tijuana + Puerto Vallarta + Los Cabos + Hermosillo + Guanajuato + Mexicali + La Paz + Aguascalientes + Manzanillo + Morelia + selected various
- US-Mexico cross-border: selected continued post-2024 selected various US-Mexico cross-border passenger traffic recovery
- Mexico domestic: selected continued post-2024 selected various Mexico domestic passenger traffic recovery
- Selected continued post-2024 ~MXN 2-3 incremental annual EPS contribution: continued post-2024
FY2026 catalyst: continued Mexico Pacific airport concession cycle + ~MXN 2-3 incremental annual EPS contribution.
Tariff Rate Reset + Master Development Program
GAP Master Development Program (MDP) + tariff rate reset framework:
- MDP tariff rate reset cycle: post-2024 selected various Master Development Program (MDP) tariff rate reset cycle
- Tariff rate increase potential: selected post-2024 ~+8-12% aggregate tariff rate increase potential
- MDP capex: ~$3.0-3.5B aggregate FY2025-2030 capex committed under selected various MDP framework
- Selected continued post-2024 ~MXN 2-3 incremental annual EPS contribution: continued post-2024
FY2026 catalyst: continued MDP tariff rate reset + ~MXN 2-3 incremental EPS contribution.
Capital Return + Dividend Track
GAP capital return policy targets continued post-2012 dividend track + capital return acceleration:
- Ordinary dividend:
MXN 17-21 aggregate annual dividend per common share FY2025 ($0.95-1.15 per ADR; selected post-2024 ~+10-15% growth post-2024 ~MXN 17 dividend; selected ~13-year continuous dividend track post-2012 NYSE ADR listing) - Buybacks: selected modest opportunistic buybacks
- Aggregate capital return: ~MXN 6-8B FY2025
- Net leverage: net debt-to-adj. EBITDA ~1.5-2.0x FY2025
- Investment grade: Baa1/BBB+ credit rating
FY2026 catalyst: continued capital return + selected potential post-2024 dividend acceleration.
Risks
- Mexico macro: continued Mexico macro + selected various Mexico GDP cycle
- Selected various US-Mexico cross-border: continued post-2024 US-Mexico cross-border passenger traffic vs cyclical adjustment
- Selected various competitive intensity: ASUR + OMAB + selected various Mexican private airport concession competitive
- Selected various MXN/USD: continued MXN/USD volatility could compress USD-reported earnings
- Selected various Mexican regulatory: continued post-2024 Mexican Federal Aviation Authority (AFAC) + selected various regulatory
Key Core Metrics
| Metric | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2026 outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | MXN 35-38B | MXN 33B | MXN 32B | MXN 24B | MXN 38-42B |
| Adj. EBITDA | MXN 22-25B | MXN 21B | MXN 20B | MXN 14B | MXN 24-28B |
| Diluted EPS (MXN) | 24-28 | 22 | 21 | 14 | 27-31 |
| Adj. EBITDA margin | 63-66% | 64% | 63% | 58% | 63-67% |
| Passengers (M) | 50-55+ | 49 | 47 | 33 | 53-58+ |
| Capital return | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2026 outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend (MXN) | 17-21 | 17 | 19-23 |
| Buybacks | modest | modest | modest |
| Total return | MXN 6-8B | MXN 6.5B | MXN 7-9B |
| Net leverage | 1.5-2.0x | 1.7x | 1.3-1.8x |
Market Evaluation
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico trades at selected ~13-16x FY2026 P/E discount vs ASUR (~14-17x) + OMAB (~10-13x) + selected various Mexican private airport concession peers reflecting selected continued ~50-55M aggregate aggregate annual passenger traffic across selected 12 Mexico Pacific airport concessions + selected post-2024 selected various Master Development Program (MDP) tariff rate reset cycle + selected ~13-year continuous dividend track + selected continued post-2024 ~$3.0-3.5B aggregate FY2025-2030 capex committed. Selected re-rating catalysts include: (1) continued Mexico Pacific airport concession passenger traffic recovery; (2) selected post-2024 ~+8-12% aggregate Master Development Program tariff rate increase potential; (3) ~MXN 17-21 dividend + ~+10-15% growth + selected ~13-year continuous dividend track; (4) selected continued post-2024 ~MXN 6-8B aggregate FY2025 capital return; (5) selected continued post-2024 ~1.5-2.0x net leverage ratio supporting selected continued capital return.
Mexico Airport + MDP Strategic Differentiation Deep Dive
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico Mexico Pacific airport concession franchise + selected continued post-2024 Master Development Program (MDP) tariff rate reset cycle represent selected primary strategic differentiation thesis vs traditional Mexican private airport concession peers (ASUR + OMAB + selected various). Selected ~50-55M aggregate aggregate annual passenger traffic FY2025 + selected primary 12 Mexico Pacific airport concessions (Guadalajara + selected various Tijuana + Puerto Vallarta + Los Cabos + Hermosillo + Guanajuato + Mexicali + La Paz + Aguascalientes + Manzanillo + Morelia + selected various) + selected continued post-2024 selected various US-Mexico cross-border + selected various Mexico domestic passenger traffic recovery supports selected primary Mexico Pacific airport concession cycle thesis. Selected post-2024 selected various Master Development Program (MDP) tariff rate reset cycle (selected post-2024 ~+8-12% aggregate tariff rate increase potential) + selected ~$3.0-3.5B aggregate FY2025-2030 capex committed under selected various MDP framework + selected continued post-2024 ~MXN 2-3 incremental annual EPS contribution supports selected continued post-2024 MDP tariff rate reset thesis. Selected ~MXN 17-21 aggregate annual dividend per common share FY2025 (selected post-2024 ~+10-15% growth post-2024 ~MXN 17 dividend; selected ~13-year continuous dividend track post-2012 NYSE ADR listing) + selected modest opportunistic buybacks + selected continued post-2024 ~MXN 6-8B aggregate FY2025 capital return + selected post-2024 ~1.5-2.0x net leverage ratio supports selected continued post-2024 capital return optionality. Selected post-2018 Raul Revuelta CEO appointment (selected ex-GAP CFO + ~25-year company career) supports selected continued post-2018 strategic priorities. FY2026 catalyst: continued Mexico Pacific airport + MDP + ~MXN 2-3 incremental annual EPS contribution.
FY2026 thesis: Mexico Pacific airport concession cycle + Master Development Program tariff rate reset + ~MXN 17-21 annual dividend + ~13-year continuous dividend track + ~MXN 6-9B aggregate annual capital return + selected continued post-2024 ~$3.0-3.5B aggregate FY2025-2030 capex commitment + selected potential post-2024 dividend acceleration.
