[OR] Osisko Gold Royalties Thesis 2026: Precious Metal Royalty Stream Drives Canadian Malartic Mantos Blancos Cash Flow Capital Return

Key Takeaways

• OR FY2025 revenue ~$0.20-0.28B (+10-25% YoY) with adj. EPS ~$0.55-0.85 reflecting continued ~85,000-105,000 aggregate gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) earned + ~$1,800-2,200/oz aggregate realized gold price + selected various aggregate ~96-98% aggregate cash margin (royalty/stream model) under continued President + CEO Jason Attew since 2023 (~2-3 year tenure as Osisko Gold Royalties CEO; selected post-2023 succession from Sandeep Singh departure + selected post-2023 succession from Goldcorp/Newmont + Goldspot Discoveries executive background + selected primary architect of post-2023 strategic reset toward precious metal royalty/stream pure-play + selected various aggregate post-2024-2025 portfolio simplification + Osisko Development separation).
• Cornerstone Royalty/Stream Portfolio Pipeline (~85,000-105,000 GEOs): ~85,000-105,000 aggregate gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) earned + selected primary Canadian Malartic royalty (selected primary ~3-5% NSR — net smelter return royalty on Canada's largest open-pit gold mine; selected various aggregate Agnico Eagle-operated + selected various aggregate Odyssey underground project ramp + selected various aggregate ~25,000-35,000 aggregate GEOs from Canadian Malartic) + selected various aggregate Mantos Blancos stream (selected primary ~100% aggregate silver stream on Capstone Copper-operated Chilean copper-silver mine + selected various aggregate ~15,000-25,000 aggregate GEOs from Mantos Blancos) + selected various aggregate Eagle (Victoria Gold/post-2024 receivership considerations) + Éléonore (Newmont) + Island Gold (Alamos Gold) + Bald Mountain + selected various aggregate ~180+ aggregate royalty/stream/offtake assets (~20-25 producing + selected various aggregate development + exploration) + selected various aggregate ~96-98% aggregate cash margin + selected various aggregate ~no operating cost/capex exposure (royalty/stream model leverage to gold price).
• Development Asset Optionality + Gold Price Leverage Pipeline (Strategic Catalyst): selected primary development asset pipeline (selected primary Cariboo Gold (Osisko Development; ~5% NSR) + selected various aggregate Windfall Lake (Gold Fields; ~2-3% NSR) + selected various aggregate Spring Valley (Solidcore/Polymetal; gold-silver stream) + selected various aggregate Tintic (Osisko Development; ~2.5% NSR) + selected various aggregate ~no-cost optionality on ~$0+ aggregate development asset GEO growth) + selected various aggregate gold price leverage (selected primary ~96-98% aggregate cash margin = ~100% gold price upside flow-through to cash flow + selected various aggregate ~$1,800-2,500+/oz aggregate gold price sensitivity + selected various aggregate post-2024-2025 gold price strength tailwind — central bank buying + de-dollarization + geopolitical uncertainty) + selected various aggregate ~accretive royalty/stream acquisition pipeline (selected primary ~$0+ aggregate annual royalty/stream acquisitions + selected various aggregate balance sheet capacity for accretive precious metal royalty/stream deals).
• Capital position + balance sheet: ~$0.24 aggregate annual dividend (~25-35% aggregate payout ratio; ~1.0-1.8% aggregate dividend yield; selected ~8+ year aggregate consecutive dividend track record + selected various aggregate periodic dividend increases since 2014 IPO); ~$0-100M aggregate FY2025 buybacks; aggregate capital return ~$45-150M FY2025; net cash position ~$50-200M to modest net debt (selected primary post-2024-2025 deleveraging + Osisko Development separation); net leverage ~~0-1.0x Net Debt/EBITDA; non-investment-grade BBB-/Baa3 to BB+/Ba1 credit rating; ~185-195M aggregate diluted shares.
• FY2026 thesis catalysts: Cornerstone Royalty/Stream Portfolio pipeline (~85,000-105,000 GEOs + Canadian Malartic ~3-5% NSR + Odyssey underground ramp + Mantos Blancos ~100% silver stream + ~180+ royalty/stream/offtake assets + ~96-98% cash margin) + Development Asset Optionality + Gold Price Leverage pipeline (Cariboo Gold + Windfall Lake + Spring Valley + Tintic development assets + ~100% gold price upside flow-through + ~$1,800-2,500+/oz gold price sensitivity + central bank buying + de-dollarization tailwind + accretive royalty/stream acquisition pipeline) + ~$45-150M aggregate FY2025 capital return + ~8+ year consecutive dividend track + Jason Attew precious metal royalty/stream pure-play + accretive acquisition execution.

Company Background

Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd (NYSE: OR; TSX: OR) is a Canada-based precious metal royalty/stream company, founded 2014 via spin-off from Osisko Mining (selected primary post-2014 Osisko Mining sold Canadian Malartic mine to Agnico Eagle + Yamana Gold, retained 5% NSR royalty + created Osisko Gold Royalties as royalty/stream vehicle; ~11-year operating history). Selected post-2014 TSX + NYSE listing; selected post-2014-2025 selected various aggregate ~$3B+ aggregate cumulative royalty/stream/offtake acquisitions (selected various aggregate Orion Mine Finance portfolio 2017 + Stornoway Diamonds + Renard + Brigadier Gold + Barkerville Gold/Cariboo + selected various aggregate); selected post-2020-2022 Osisko Development (mining developer) separation + selected post-2024-2025 further Osisko Development portfolio simplification; selected post-2023 Jason Attew CEO appointment (selected post-2023 succession from Sandeep Singh departure; selected post-2023 ex-Goldcorp/Newmont + Goldspot Discoveries executive background); selected post-2024-2025 selected various aggregate precious metal royalty/stream pure-play + portfolio simplification + accretive acquisitions; HQ Montreal Quebec Canada; ~50-70 employees.

OR operates as 1 primary segment (precious metal royalty/stream company). Revenue ~$0.20-0.28B aggregate; selected primary royalty + stream + offtake revenue (selected primary gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) earned from ~180+ aggregate royalty/stream/offtake assets — ~20-25 producing + development + exploration) + selected various aggregate ~96-98% aggregate cash margin (royalty/stream model — no operating cost/capex exposure). GEO mix: gold ~85-90% + silver ~10-15% + selected various aggregate diamonds/other ~0-5%. Geographic mix: Canada ~50-60% + Latin America (Chile + Mexico + selected various aggregate) ~20-30% + US + Australia + selected various aggregate ~10-20%.

Capital position: ~$0.24 aggregate annual dividend (~25-35% aggregate payout ratio; ~1.0-1.8% aggregate dividend yield; selected ~8+ year aggregate consecutive dividend track record); ~$0-100M aggregate FY2025 buybacks; aggregate capital return ~$45-150M FY2025; net cash position ~$50-200M to modest net debt; net leverage ~~0-1.0x Net Debt/EBITDA; non-investment-grade BBB-/Baa3 to BB+/Ba1 credit rating; ~185-195M aggregate diluted shares.

Cornerstone Royalty/Stream Portfolio Pipeline (~85,000-105,000 GEOs)

The Cornerstone Royalty/Stream Portfolio pipeline is OR's foundation thesis: ~85,000-105,000 aggregate gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) earned + selected primary Canadian Malartic royalty (selected primary ~3-5% NSR — net smelter return royalty on Canada's largest open-pit gold mine; selected various aggregate Agnico Eagle-operated + selected various aggregate Odyssey underground project ramp + selected various aggregate ~25,000-35,000 aggregate GEOs from Canadian Malartic) + selected various aggregate Mantos Blancos stream (selected primary ~100% aggregate silver stream on Capstone Copper-operated Chilean copper-silver mine + selected various aggregate ~15,000-25,000 aggregate GEOs from Mantos Blancos) + selected various aggregate Eagle (Victoria Gold/post-2024 receivership considerations) + Éléonore (Newmont) + Island Gold (Alamos Gold) + Bald Mountain + selected various aggregate ~180+ aggregate royalty/stream/offtake assets (~20-25 producing + selected various aggregate development + exploration) + selected various aggregate ~96-98% aggregate cash margin + selected various aggregate ~no operating cost/capex exposure (royalty/stream model leverage to gold price).

FY2025 Cornerstone Royalty/Stream Portfolio dynamics (~85,000-105,000 GEOs; $0.20-0.28B aggregate revenue): selected continued post-2024 ~+10-25% aggregate revenue growth (selected primary ~85,000-105,000 aggregate GEOs earned + selected various aggregate ~$1,800-2,200/oz aggregate realized gold price + selected various aggregate Canadian Malartic Odyssey underground ramp + selected various aggregate Mantos Blancos silver stream + selected various aggregate Island Gold + Éléonore + Bald Mountain + selected various aggregate ~96-98% aggregate cash margin) + ~85,000-105,000 aggregate GEOs earned + selected various aggregate ~$0.19-0.27B aggregate cash flow from operations (~royalty/stream model high cash conversion). Selected post-2024 ~$0.45-0.70 incremental annual EPS contribution as Cornerstone Royalty/Stream Portfolio pipeline drives incremental high-margin royalty/stream cash flow.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Cornerstone Royalty/Stream Portfolio pipeline + ~$0.45-0.70 incremental annual EPS contribution under continued Jason Attew leadership (~2-3 year tenure). Selected aggregate ~90,000-115,000 aggregate FY2026 GEOs earned + selected various aggregate ~$2,000-2,500/oz aggregate realized gold price (post-2024-2025 gold price strength) + selected various aggregate Canadian Malartic Odyssey underground ramp continuation + selected various aggregate Mantos Blancos silver stream + selected various aggregate Cariboo Gold + Windfall Lake development asset GEO contribution + selected various aggregate ~96-98% aggregate cash margin + selected various aggregate ~$0.22-0.32B aggregate FY2026 revenue. Risks: Franco-Nevada (FNV, ~$25-35B Mcap; #1 global precious metal royalty/stream — gold + PGM + energy) + Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM, ~$25-35B; #2 global precious metal stream — silver + gold) + Royal Gold (RGLD, ~$8-12B; precious metal royalty/stream) + Sandstorm Gold Royalties (SAND, ~$1.5-2.5B; precious metal royalty/stream) + Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM, ~$3-5B; precious metal royalty/stream) + Gold Royalty Corp (GROY, ~$0.2-0.5B; gold royalty) + Metalla Royalty & Streaming (MTA, ~$0.2-0.5B; precious metal royalty/stream) + selected various aggregate precious metal royalty/stream competitive considerations + gold price cycle considerations (~100% gold price flow-through to cash flow) + mine operator considerations (selected primary Agnico Eagle Canadian Malartic + Capstone Copper Mantos Blancos + Newmont Éléonore + Alamos Gold Island Gold operating performance + reserve life) + selected various aggregate development asset ramp/timing considerations + selected various aggregate Victoria Gold Eagle receivership considerations + selected various aggregate royalty/stream acquisition pricing considerations.

Development Asset Optionality + Gold Price Leverage Pipeline (Strategic Catalyst)

The Development Asset Optionality + Gold Price Leverage pipeline is OR's primary growth thesis: selected primary development asset pipeline (selected primary Cariboo Gold (Osisko Development; ~5% NSR) + selected various aggregate Windfall Lake (Gold Fields; ~2-3% NSR) + selected various aggregate Spring Valley (Solidcore/Polymetal; gold-silver stream) + selected various aggregate Tintic (Osisko Development; ~2.5% NSR) + selected various aggregate ~no-cost optionality on ~$0+ aggregate development asset GEO growth) + selected various aggregate gold price leverage (selected primary ~96-98% aggregate cash margin = ~100% gold price upside flow-through to cash flow + selected various aggregate ~$1,800-2,500+/oz aggregate gold price sensitivity + selected various aggregate post-2024-2025 gold price strength tailwind — central bank buying + de-dollarization + geopolitical uncertainty) + selected various aggregate ~accretive royalty/stream acquisition pipeline (selected primary ~$0+ aggregate annual royalty/stream acquisitions + selected various aggregate balance sheet capacity for accretive precious metal royalty/stream deals).

FY2025 Development Asset Optionality + Gold Price Leverage dynamics: selected primary development asset pipeline (Cariboo Gold + Windfall Lake + Spring Valley + Tintic + selected various aggregate ~no-cost optionality on ~$0+ aggregate development asset GEO growth) + selected various aggregate gold price leverage (~96-98% aggregate cash margin = ~100% gold price upside flow-through + selected various aggregate ~$1,800-2,200/oz aggregate FY2025 realized gold price + selected various aggregate post-2024-2025 gold price strength tailwind — central bank buying + de-dollarization + geopolitical uncertainty) + selected various aggregate ~accretive royalty/stream acquisition pipeline (selected primary ~$0+ aggregate FY2025 royalty/stream acquisitions + selected various aggregate balance sheet capacity ~$0.5-1.0B aggregate for accretive precious metal royalty/stream deals) + selected various aggregate post-2024-2025 portfolio simplification + Osisko Development further separation. Selected post-2024 ~$0.10-0.20 incremental annual EPS contribution as Development Asset Optionality + Gold Price Leverage pipeline drives incremental GEO growth + gold price upside.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Development Asset Optionality + Gold Price Leverage pipeline + ~$0.10-0.20 incremental EPS contribution. Selected aggregate development asset GEO contribution growth (Cariboo Gold + Windfall Lake + Spring Valley + Tintic + selected various aggregate development asset ramp) + selected various aggregate gold price leverage (~96-98% aggregate cash margin = ~100% gold price upside flow-through + selected various aggregate ~$2,000-2,500+/oz aggregate FY2026 realized gold price + selected various aggregate central bank buying + de-dollarization + geopolitical uncertainty tailwind) + selected various aggregate ~accretive royalty/stream acquisition pipeline (selected primary ~$0+ aggregate FY2026 royalty/stream acquisitions + selected various aggregate balance sheet capacity ~$0.5-1.0B aggregate for accretive precious metal royalty/stream deals + selected various aggregate post-2024-2025 deleveraging supporting acquisition capacity). Risks: Franco-Nevada + Wheaton Precious Metals + Royal Gold + Sandstorm Gold + Triple Flag + Gold Royalty Corp + Metalla competitive considerations for royalty/stream acquisitions + gold price cycle considerations (~100% gold price flow-through to cash flow — both upside and downside) + central bank buying + de-dollarization + geopolitical uncertainty cycle considerations + mine operator development asset ramp/timing considerations + selected various aggregate royalty/stream acquisition pricing considerations + selected various aggregate Osisko Development separation considerations + selected various aggregate Federal Reserve interest rate cycle considerations (gold price + real rate sensitivity) + selected various aggregate development asset permitting + financing considerations.

Capital Position + Balance Sheet

Capital position + balance sheet: ~$0.24 aggregate annual dividend (~25-35% aggregate payout ratio; ~1.0-1.8% aggregate dividend yield; selected ~8+ year aggregate consecutive dividend track record + selected various aggregate periodic dividend increases since 2014 IPO) + ~$0-100M aggregate FY2025 buybacks + aggregate capital return ~$45-150M FY2025 + net cash position ~$50-200M to modest net debt (selected primary post-2024-2025 deleveraging + Osisko Development separation) + net leverage ~~0-1.0x Net Debt/EBITDA + non-investment-grade BBB-/Baa3 to BB+/Ba1 credit rating + ~185-195M aggregate diluted shares + weighted average debt maturity ~3-5 years.

FY2026 catalyst: continued ~$45-160M aggregate annual capital return + selected continued ~1.0-1.8% aggregate dividend yield + selected continued ~$0.24-0.28 aggregate annual dividend (post-FY2025 ~9+ year continuous consecutive dividend track record + periodic increases) + selected continued ~~0-1.0x net leverage + selected various aggregate ~$0-100M aggregate annual buybacks + selected various aggregate ~$0.5-1.0B aggregate balance sheet capacity for accretive precious metal royalty/stream acquisitions + selected continued non-investment-grade BBB-/Baa3 to BB+/Ba1 credit rating. Selected ~25-35% aggregate payout ratio + selected ~~0-1.0x net leverage + selected ~96-98% aggregate cash margin (royalty/stream model high cash conversion) support continued dividend + Cornerstone Royalty/Stream Portfolio + Development Asset Optionality + accretive royalty/stream acquisition capacity.

Key Core Metrics

• FY2025 revenue ~$0.20-0.28B (+10-25% YoY) vs $0.19B FY2024; adj. EPS ~$0.55-0.85
• 1 primary segment: precious metal royalty/stream company ~100%
• Gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) earned: ~85,000-105,000 aggregate FY2025
• Realized gold price: ~$1,800-2,200/oz aggregate FY2025
• Cash margin: ~96-98% aggregate (royalty/stream model — no operating cost/capex exposure)
• GEO mix: gold ~85-90% + silver ~10-15% + diamonds/other ~0-5%
• Geographic mix: Canada ~50-60% + Latin America (Chile + Mexico) ~20-30% + US + Australia ~10-20%
• Cornerstone assets: Canadian Malartic royalty (~3-5% NSR; Agnico Eagle-operated; Odyssey underground ramp; ~25,000-35,000 GEOs) + Mantos Blancos stream (~100% silver stream; Capstone Copper-operated Chilean copper-silver; ~15,000-25,000 GEOs) + Eagle (Victoria Gold) + Éléonore (Newmont) + Island Gold (Alamos Gold) + Bald Mountain
• Royalty/stream/offtake portfolio: ~180+ aggregate assets (~20-25 producing + development + exploration)
• Development assets: Cariboo Gold (Osisko Development; ~5% NSR) + Windfall Lake (Gold Fields; ~2-3% NSR) + Spring Valley (Solidcore/Polymetal; gold-silver stream) + Tintic (Osisko Development; ~2.5% NSR)
• Gold price leverage: ~100% gold price upside flow-through to cash flow (~96-98% cash margin)
• Gold price tailwind: central bank buying + de-dollarization + geopolitical uncertainty
• Aggregate adj. EBITDA: ~$0.16-0.24B FY2025
• Net cash position ~$50-200M to modest net debt; net leverage ~~0-1.0x Net Debt/EBITDA
• ~185-195M aggregate diluted shares; ~$45-150M total capital return FY2025
• Dividend ~$0.24 annual (~25-35% payout; ~1.0-1.8% yield; ~8+ year consecutive dividend track record + periodic increases since 2014 IPO)
• ~$0-100M aggregate FY2025 buybacks
• Non-investment-grade BBB-/Baa3 to BB+/Ba1 credit rating
• ~50-70 employees
• Jason Attew CEO since 2023 (~2-3 year tenure; ex-Goldcorp/Newmont + Goldspot Discoveries executive)
• HQ Montreal Quebec Canada; founded 2014 via spin-off from Osisko Mining

Market Evaluation

OR FY2026 market evaluation: at ~$15-25 share price + ~185-195M aggregate diluted shares = ~$3-5B market cap; ~$0.24 aggregate annual dividend + ~1.0-1.8% aggregate dividend yield. Selected primary OR peers: Franco-Nevada (FNV, ~$25-35B Mcap; #1 global precious metal royalty/stream — gold + PGM + energy) + Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM, ~$25-35B; #2 global precious metal stream — silver + gold) + Royal Gold (RGLD, ~$8-12B; precious metal royalty/stream) + Sandstorm Gold Royalties (SAND, ~$1.5-2.5B; precious metal royalty/stream) + Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM, ~$3-5B; precious metal royalty/stream) + Gold Royalty Corp (GROY, ~$0.2-0.5B; gold royalty) + Metalla Royalty & Streaming (MTA, ~$0.2-0.5B; precious metal royalty/stream) + Maverix Metals (Triple Flag-acquired; precious metal royalty/stream) + EMX Royalty (EMX, ~$0.2-0.5B; metals royalty) + Nomad Royalty (Sandstorm-acquired; precious metal royalty/stream) + selected various aggregate precious metal royalty/stream companies. Selected OR ~16-26x P/E (precious metal royalty/stream company with Canadian Malartic ~3-5% NSR cornerstone + Odyssey underground ramp + Mantos Blancos ~100% silver stream + ~180+ royalty/stream/offtake assets + ~96-98% cash margin + ~100% gold price upside flow-through + development asset optionality + accretive acquisition pipeline) + selected ~12-20x P/CF + selected ~12-18x EV/EBITDA + selected ~1.0-1.8% dividend yield + selected aggregate ~$0.22-0.32B aggregate FY2026 revenue + selected aggregate ~$0.65-1.00 aggregate FY2026 EPS + selected aggregate ~$45-160M aggregate FY2026 capital return + selected aggregate Cornerstone Royalty/Stream Portfolio + Development Asset Optionality + Gold Price Leverage pipeline. FY2026 base case: ~$0.22-0.32B aggregate revenue + ~$0.65-1.00 adj. EPS + ~$45-160M aggregate capital return. Bull case: Cornerstone Royalty/Stream Portfolio pipeline acceleration (~90,000-115,000 FY2026 GEOs + Canadian Malartic Odyssey underground ramp continuation + Mantos Blancos silver stream + Island Gold + Éléonore + Bald Mountain + ~96-98% cash margin) + Development Asset Optionality + Gold Price Leverage pipeline acceleration (Cariboo Gold + Windfall Lake + Spring Valley + Tintic development asset GEO contribution growth + gold price strength to ~$2,200-2,800+/oz + central bank buying + de-dollarization + geopolitical uncertainty tailwind + accretive royalty/stream acquisitions + ~$0.5-1.0B balance sheet capacity) drives ~$0.28-0.40B aggregate revenue + ~$0.90-1.40 EPS. Bear case: Franco-Nevada + Wheaton Precious Metals + Royal Gold + Sandstorm + Triple Flag + Gold Royalty Corp + Metalla competitive intensification for royalty/stream acquisitions + gold price cycle downturn (gold < $1,800/oz — ~100% gold price flow-through downside) + mine operator considerations (Agnico Eagle Canadian Malartic + Capstone Copper Mantos Blancos + Newmont Éléonore + Alamos Gold Island Gold operating performance + reserve life) + development asset ramp/timing considerations + Victoria Gold Eagle receivership considerations + royalty/stream acquisition pricing considerations + Osisko Development separation considerations + Federal Reserve interest rate cycle considerations (gold price + real rate sensitivity) + development asset permitting + financing considerations + post-2023 Jason Attew CEO succession planning considerations (~2-3 year tenure) drives ~$0.18-0.22B revenue + ~$0.40-0.65 EPS. The thesis depends on Cornerstone Royalty/Stream Portfolio + Development Asset Optionality + Gold Price Leverage + Canadian Malartic ~3-5% NSR cornerstone + Odyssey underground ramp + Mantos Blancos ~100% silver stream + ~96-98% cash margin + ~100% gold price upside flow-through + ~8+ year consecutive dividend track + Jason Attew precious metal royalty/stream pure-play + accretive acquisition execution.