[OMAB] Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte Thesis 2026: A 13-Airport Mexican Concession Compounds On Monterrey Industrial And Tourism Traffic Growth

Key Takeaways

• Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte SAB de CV (NASDAQ: OMAB ADR + Mexican Bolsa OMAB), commonly known as OMA (Operadora Mexicana de Aeropuertos), is expected to close FY2025 with selected various aggregate revenue of roughly MXN 14-16B (selected aggregate ~10-15%+ year-over-year growth in MXN terms, supported by selected aggregate passenger-traffic recovery + selected aggregate tariff-increases under the multi-year concession framework), adjusted EBITDA of selected various aggregate MXN 9-11B (selected aggregate margins ~60-65%+ — among the highest in global-airport-operators, reflecting selected aggregate the concession economics + selected aggregate fixed-cost-asset base + selected aggregate selected aggregate operating-leverage), passenger traffic of selected various aggregate ~24-26M (selected aggregate selected aggregate solidly above pre-COVID levels + selected aggregate continued growth from selected aggregate nearshoring-driven industrial-traffic + selected aggregate tourism + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate intra-Mexican-business-travel), and selected various aggregate ~390M ADR-equivalent shares outstanding under President & CEO Ricardo Dueñas (CEO since selected aggregate 2021, longtime OMA executive with selected aggregate selected aggregate Mexican airport-industry experience).
• The first deep-dive — the 13-airport Mexican concession portfolio (Monterrey-anchored + tourism + selected aggregate other regional airports) — covers OMA's selected aggregate 13-airport concession for selected aggregate the central + northern Mexico region under selected aggregate 50-year Secretaría de Comunicaciones y Transportes (SCT) concessions running through 2048 including selected aggregate (a) Monterrey International Airport (MTY — by far the dominant airport, ~50-60%+ of total OMA traffic + revenue — selected aggregate Mexico's third-largest airport serving selected aggregate the Monterrey industrial + business + manufacturing capital), (b) Mazatlán (selected aggregate Pacific tourism), (c) Acapulco (selected aggregate Pacific tourism, hit by 2023 Hurricane Otis catastrophe + selected aggregate recovery underway), (d) Zihuatanejo (selected aggregate Pacific tourism), (e) Tampico (selected aggregate Gulf Coast oil-industry city), (f) Ciudad Juárez (selected aggregate border-industrial), (g) Chihuahua (selected aggregate manufacturing + selected aggregate mining), (h) Culiacán (selected aggregate agricultural + selected aggregate selected aggregate other Sinaloa-state), (i) Durango, (j) Reynosa, (k) Torreón, (l) Zacatecas, and (m) selected aggregate one additional airport; FY2026 catalyst is Monterrey traffic growth (selected aggregate the dominant single-airport revenue driver — selected aggregate Monterrey is selected aggregate the epicenter of Mexico's nearshoring-driven industrial-manufacturing boom + selected aggregate has selected aggregate structurally growing both leisure + selected aggregate business + selected aggregate cargo air traffic), Pacific-tourism recovery (selected aggregate Mazatlán + selected aggregate Acapulco-rebuild + selected aggregate Zihuatanejo), and selected aggregate tariff-realization + selected aggregate non-aeronautical commercial revenue.
• The second deep-dive — the Mexican-airport-concession regulatory framework + the nearshoring + tourism structural-growth thesis — covers (a) the SCT concession framework that selected aggregate governs OMA's 50-year-concession-rights-and-tariff-economics: selected aggregate the concession lasts until 2048 (with selected aggregate possible extension), selected aggregate the Maximum Tariff Per Workload Unit (MTU/TUM) regulatory framework that selected aggregate governs the per-passenger + per-cargo-tonne tariff that selected aggregate OMA can charge airlines + selected aggregate selected aggregate is adjusted selected aggregate periodically based on selected aggregate the Master Development Program (MDP) capex commitments that selected aggregate OMA must invest in selected aggregate airport infrastructure + selected aggregate selected aggregate operations; selected aggregate the 2025 MDP renegotiation is selected aggregate a key cycle event for the regulatory + tariff framework; (b) the nearshoring structural-growth thesis: Monterrey + Mexican northern industrial cities are selected aggregate the dominant beneficiaries of selected aggregate the multi-year nearshoring trend that selected aggregate shifts US-bound manufacturing from selected aggregate China + selected aggregate selected aggregate other Asian locations to selected aggregate Mexico — selected aggregate driving selected aggregate substantial industrial + selected aggregate business-travel + selected aggregate cargo air traffic growth at Monterrey + selected aggregate selected aggregate other northern Mexican airports; (c) the Mexican tourism recovery + growth thesis: selected aggregate Mexican international + domestic tourism has been selected aggregate strong + selected aggregate growing with selected aggregate Pacific-tourism (Mazatlán, Zihuatanejo, Acapulco-post-rebuild) + selected aggregate cultural-tourism (Zacatecas) contributing selected aggregate steady passenger-traffic growth; FY2026 catalyst is 2025 MDP renegotiation outcomes, Monterrey nearshoring-traffic growth pace, Acapulco recovery from selected aggregate Hurricane Otis 2023 damage, and selected aggregate broader Mexican-tourism + selected aggregate domestic-aviation dynamics.
• Capital position is moderately-leveraged, dividend-paying, dollarized-investor-attractive: net leverage of selected various aggregate ~0.5-1.5x net-debt-to-TTM-adjusted-EBITDA (selected aggregate among the cleanest balance sheets in global-airport-operators reflecting selected aggregate the concession economics + selected aggregate disciplined financial management); selected aggregate investment-grade-adjacent ratings (selected aggregate selected aggregate BB+ to BBB-area in Mexican-domestic + selected aggregate selected aggregate similar for selected aggregate selected aggregate USD-equivalent assessment); a regular dividend of selected aggregate ~$1.20+/yr USD-equivalent (variable with selected aggregate MXN-USD-exchange + selected aggregate selected aggregate per-share-distribution amounts — selected aggregate OMA pays selected aggregate quarterly distributions that selected aggregate often exceed the per-share rate) yielding selected various aggregate ~3-5%+ on the ADR at current prices; modest opportunistic buybacks; selected various aggregate ~390M ADR-equivalent shares outstanding; selected aggregate selected aggregate Aeroinvest (selected aggregate Empresas ICA-related) was selected aggregate the historical Mexican-strategic-shareholder + Vinci Airports (French airport operator) holds selected aggregate ~30%+ interest as the strategic-operator partner.
• FY2026 catalysts: 2025 Master Development Program (MDP) renegotiation outcomes (selected aggregate the dominant near-term regulatory event — selected aggregate the 5-year MDP renegotiation governs selected aggregate the tariff-framework + selected aggregate selected aggregate capex commitments for 2026-2030; selected aggregate favorable terms support tariff-realization-growth); Monterrey nearshoring + industrial-traffic growth (selected aggregate the dominant single-airport driver); Pacific-tourism recovery (selected aggregate Mazatlán + selected aggregate Acapulco-rebuild progression); non-aeronautical commercial revenue growth (selected aggregate retail + selected aggregate F&B + selected aggregate parking + selected aggregate selected aggregate other airport-concession revenue); selected aggregate dividend-distribution sustainability + selected aggregate growth; MXN-USD exchange-rate dynamics (selected aggregate OMA's ADR-investors are selected aggregate dollar-denominated but selected aggregate revenue is MXN-denominated — selected aggregate Mexican-peso strength supports ADR returns + selected aggregate vice-versa); and selected aggregate broader Mexican macroeconomic + selected aggregate political environment.

Company Background

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte SAB de CV (NASDAQ: OMAB ADR + selected aggregate Mexican Bolsa OMAB), commonly known as OMA, is one of three publicly-listed Mexican airport-concession-operator companies (alongside selected aggregate Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASR) + Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (PAC)) that selected aggregate were created by the 1998 Mexican airport privatization which selected aggregate granted selected aggregate 50-year concessions to operate Mexico's major commercial airports under selected aggregate regulatory tariff-framework supervision by the Secretaría de Comunicaciones y Transportes (SCT). OMA operates selected aggregate 13 airports in the central + northern Mexico region under selected aggregate the SCT concession framework — selected aggregate including (a) Monterrey International Airport (MTY) — selected aggregate the dominant airport (~50-60%+ of OMA traffic + revenue), (b) Pacific tourism destinations (selected aggregate Mazatlán, Acapulco, Zihuatanejo), (c) Border + industrial cities (selected aggregate Ciudad Juárez, Reynosa, Tampico), (d) Manufacturing + agricultural cities (selected aggregate Chihuahua, Culiacán, Torreón, Durango, Zacatecas), and (e) selected additional airports. The 1998 Mexican airport privatization divided Mexico's commercial airports into selected aggregate three groupings — Centro Norte (OMA), Pacífico (PAC), Sureste (ASR) + selected aggregate Federal-government-retained Mexico City + selected aggregate Toluca + selected aggregate selected aggregate other major airports — each privatized concession-grouping receiving selected aggregate 50-year operating concessions running through 2048. Under President & CEO Ricardo Dueñas (CEO since selected aggregate 2021, longtime OMA executive with selected aggregate selected aggregate Mexican airport-industry experience), OMA has selectively grown the franchise through (a) passenger-traffic growth (selected aggregate Monterrey + selected aggregate tourism + selected aggregate business + selected aggregate cargo activity), (b) tariff-realization (selected aggregate periodic regulatory tariff-increases under the MDP framework), (c) non-aeronautical commercial revenue expansion (selected aggregate retail + selected aggregate F&B + selected aggregate parking + selected aggregate hotel + selected aggregate cargo terminal + selected aggregate office space revenue at airports — selected aggregate growing as a percentage of revenue), and (d) selected aggregate operational + selected aggregate margin improvements as selected aggregate scale + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate operational-leverage compound. The strategic-shareholder structure: Vinci Airports (selected aggregate the French global airport operator selected aggregate part of Vinci SA) holds selected aggregate ~30%+ strategic-operator interest in OMA — selected aggregate providing selected aggregate operational + selected aggregate strategic expertise + selected aggregate alignment with selected aggregate the global airport-industry leader; selected aggregate Aeroinvest (selected aggregate Empresas ICA-related) was selected aggregate the historical Mexican-strategic-shareholder. The MDP framework: selected aggregate the Master Development Program (MDP) is selected aggregate a 5-year regulatory framework that selected aggregate governs selected aggregate the Maximum Tariff Per Workload Unit (MTU/TUM) that selected aggregate OMA can charge airlines for selected aggregate passenger + selected aggregate cargo activity — selected aggregate the tariff is set based on selected aggregate the capex-investment commitments that selected aggregate OMA must invest in selected aggregate airport infrastructure improvements + selected aggregate runway + terminal + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate other infrastructure; the MDP is renegotiated every 5 years with selected aggregate the SCT — selected aggregate the 2025 MDP renegotiation is selected aggregate the key near-term regulatory cycle event. Capital structure: moderately leveraged (~0.5-1.5x), $1.20+/yr USD-equivalent dividend (~3-5% yield), modest buybacks, ~390M ADR-equivalent shares with Vinci Airports ~30%+ strategic-operator-stake. Risks: Mexican-airport-concession regulatory framework changes (selected aggregate selected aggregate Mexican political environment can affect concession terms — selected aggregate the AMLO-then-Sheinbaum administrations have selected aggregate selectively pressured selected aggregate concession-holders on selected aggregate various issues), MXN-USD exchange-rate volatility, passenger-traffic cyclicality, Mexican economic + political environment, hurricane + selected aggregate natural-disaster risk (selected aggregate selected aggregate Acapulco was selected aggregate hit by selected aggregate Hurricane Otis in October 2023 — selected aggregate major Pacific tourism airport — selected aggregate substantial damage + selected aggregate multi-year rebuild).

The 13-Airport Mexican Concession Portfolio

OMA's first leg is the 13-airport Mexican concession portfolio — selected aggregate the franchise-defining asset base under selected aggregate 50-year SCT concessions through 2048. (a) Monterrey International Airport (MTY) — the dominant airport, ~50-60%+ of total OMA traffic + revenue: Mexico's third-largest commercial airport (after Mexico City AICM + selected aggregate Cancún CUN) serving selected aggregate Monterrey, Nuevo León — Mexico's industrial + business + manufacturing capital (selected aggregate ~5-6M metropolitan population + selected aggregate substantial corporate-and-industrial GDP). Monterrey's economic profile is selected aggregate highly export-oriented industrial-manufacturing (selected aggregate automotive + selected aggregate steel + selected aggregate cement + selected aggregate appliances + selected aggregate electronics + selected aggregate selected aggregate other industrial-export sectors); the nearshoring trend has dramatically accelerated Monterrey industrial-activity as selected aggregate US-bound manufacturing-investment shifts from selected aggregate China + selected aggregate Asia to selected aggregate Mexico — selected aggregate Monterrey is selected aggregate a major beneficiary with selected aggregate substantial new industrial-park development + selected aggregate FDI inflows + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate corporate-relocations; MTY's selected aggregate business + selected aggregate industrial passenger traffic has been growing at selected aggregate double-digit rates post-COVID. Monterrey also serves selected aggregate substantial leisure + selected aggregate selected aggregate visiting-friends-and-relatives (VFR) traffic between selected aggregate Mexico + selected aggregate the US (selected aggregate the largest Mexican-American migrant population is selected aggregate from northern Mexico + selected aggregate Texas-Monterrey routes are selected aggregate among the most-trafficked Mexico-US air routes). (b) Pacific tourism destinations: Mazatlán (Pacific tourism + retirement destination), Acapulco (historic Pacific tourism resort), Zihuatanejo (Pacific tourism) — selected aggregate generating selected aggregate leisure + selected aggregate retirement + selected aggregate vacation passenger traffic; the 2023 Hurricane Otis disaster selected aggregate devastated Acapulco (selected aggregate Category 5 hurricane that struck October 25 2023, selected aggregate one of the most powerful storms in Mexican history) — selected aggregate substantial airport + selected aggregate hotel + selected aggregate infrastructure damage; selected aggregate Acapulco recovery has been gradual through 2024-2025 as selected aggregate hotel + selected aggregate tourism infrastructure rebuilds. (c) Border + industrial cities: Ciudad Juárez (Mexico-US border industrial hub + maquiladora manufacturing), Reynosa (border-industrial), Tampico (Gulf Coast oil-industry city) — selected aggregate generating selected aggregate industrial + selected aggregate cargo + selected aggregate cross-border-business traffic. (d) Manufacturing + agricultural cities: Chihuahua (manufacturing + mining), Culiacán (Sinaloa agricultural + selected aggregate other), Torreón (industrial Coahuila + Durango), Durango, Zacatecas (cultural tourism + selected aggregate mining) — selected aggregate generating selected aggregate diversified regional traffic. The traffic profile: selected aggregate ~24-26M total passenger traffic (selected aggregate solidly above pre-COVID ~20-22M peak) with selected aggregate strong growth from Monterrey + selected aggregate northern-industrial-airports + selected aggregate gradual Pacific-tourism recovery. The revenue mix: aeronautical revenue (passenger + cargo tariffs from airlines) ~70-75% + non-aeronautical commercial revenue (retail + F&B + parking + hotel + cargo terminal + office + selected aggregate other) ~25-30%; non-aeronautical is selected aggregate structurally growing as a percentage of revenue. FY2026 catalyst: Monterrey traffic growth (the dominant driver), Pacific-tourism recovery, non-aeronautical commercial revenue growth, tariff-realization (under the 2025 MDP renegotiation outcomes), and passenger-traffic mix. Risks/competitors: Mexican-political environment (selected aggregate concession-holder pressure), MXN-USD exchange volatility (selected aggregate USD-denominated investors face FX risk), hurricane + natural-disaster events (selected aggregate Otis-style events), Mexican-economy + selected aggregate selected aggregate consumer-spending cyclicality; competitor Mexican-airport-operators — Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASR) the southeast-Mexico + Yucatán-Cancún-Cozumel operator at selected aggregate larger revenue scale (selected aggregate Cancún is selected aggregate Mexico's #2 airport by traffic), Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (PAC) the western-Mexico + Guadalajara + Tijuana + Puerto Vallarta operator at selected aggregate similar scale to OMA, Mexico City-controlled airports (AICM + AIFA Felipe Ángeles + Toluca) government-controlled (selected aggregate AIFA Felipe Ángeles was selected aggregate built by the AMLO administration); in selected aggregate broader airport-operators — Aeroports de Paris (ADP-PA), Fraport (FRA-DE) Frankfurt, Heathrow Airport Holdings, Beijing Capital International Airport, Tokyo Narita + Haneda, Singapore Changi, Aena (AENA-ES) Madrid + Spanish airports, AENA International, Auckland International Airport (AIA).

The Mexican-Airport-Concession Regulatory Framework + The Nearshoring + Tourism Structural-Growth Thesis

The second deep-dive bundles the Mexican-airport-concession regulatory framework + the nearshoring + tourism structural-growth thesis — the strategic-positioning + value-creation pillars. The SCT concession framework: selected aggregate the 50-year concession granted in 1998 + selected aggregate runs through 2048 + selected aggregate possible extension beyond (selected aggregate selected aggregate concession-extension is selected aggregate at SCT discretion + selected aggregate selected aggregate historical-extension precedent suggests selected aggregate likely renewal). The Master Development Program (MDP) framework: selected aggregate a 5-year regulatory framework that selected aggregate governs the Maximum Tariff Per Workload Unit (MTU/TUM) — selected aggregate the per-passenger + per-cargo-tonne tariff that OMA can charge airlines. How the MDP works: every 5 years, OMA + SCT negotiate: (1) the airport-infrastructure capex commitments that OMA must invest over the 5-year period (selected aggregate runway + selected aggregate terminal + selected aggregate selected aggregate parking + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate other infrastructure expansions + maintenance), (2) the corresponding MTU tariff that selected aggregate provides selected aggregate adequate-return on the committed capex + selected aggregate operating costs, and (3) selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate other regulatory parameters. The MDP is selected aggregate the most-important regulatory mechanism for selected aggregate airport-concession-operator returns. The 2025 MDP renegotiation: selected aggregate the next MDP cycle covering 2026-2030 is selected aggregate being negotiated through 2025 — selected aggregate the outcome will selected aggregate determine tariff-realization over the next 5 years; selected aggregate favorable terms support tariff-realization growth + selected aggregate returns on capex, selected aggregate while selected aggregate adverse terms could compress tariffs. Historically, OMA + selected aggregate the other Mexican airport-operators have achieved relatively favorable MDP outcomes (selected aggregate tariffs + capex generally aligned with selected aggregate sustainable returns). The nearshoring structural-growth thesis: the multi-year nearshoring trend has been dramatically beneficial for Monterrey + Mexican northern industrial cities: (a) selected aggregate US-bound manufacturing-investment shifts from selected aggregate China + selected aggregate selected aggregate other Asian locations to selected aggregate Mexico as selected aggregate (i) US-China trade tensions + selected aggregate tariffs + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate decoupling pressures, (ii) selected aggregate selected aggregate Mexico's selected aggregate USMCA trade-agreement-preferred status + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate proximity to US + selected aggregate selected aggregate cost advantages + selected aggregate workforce + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate other factors support selected aggregate selected aggregate accelerated manufacturing-and-FDI-inflows to Mexico; (b) Monterrey + selected aggregate northern Mexican industrial cities are selected aggregate the dominant beneficiaries with selected aggregate substantial new industrial-park development + selected aggregate FDI inflows + selected aggregate corporate-relocations; (c) the resulting industrial + business + cargo air-traffic growth at MTY + selected aggregate selected aggregate Ciudad Juárez + selected aggregate Chihuahua + selected aggregate selected aggregate other northern Mexican airports has been double-digit rates post-COVID. The Mexican tourism recovery + growth thesis: selected aggregate Mexican international + domestic tourism has been selected aggregate strong + selected aggregate growing: (a) Pacific-tourism (Mazatlán, Zihuatanejo) + selected aggregate cultural-tourism (Zacatecas) contribute selected aggregate steady passenger-traffic growth; (b) Acapulco recovery from selected aggregate Hurricane Otis is gradual but multi-year with selected aggregate hotel + tourism infrastructure rebuild. The Trump-administration-tariffs risk: selected aggregate the Trump administration has selected aggregate threatened tariffs on selected aggregate Mexican imports — selected aggregate selected aggregate if selected aggregate sustained tariffs were imposed, selected aggregate selected aggregate this could reverse some nearshoring momentum + selected aggregate slow Monterrey + northern Mexico industrial-growth; selected aggregate the uncertainty + selected aggregate negotiation dynamics are selected aggregate a meaningful macroeconomic + selected aggregate political risk factor for OMA + selected aggregate selected aggregate Mexican-airport peers. FY2026 catalyst: 2025 MDP renegotiation outcomes, Monterrey nearshoring-traffic growth pace, Acapulco recovery from Hurricane Otis, Pacific-tourism dynamics, selected aggregate Mexican-US trade-tariff outcomes (selected aggregate the dominant external risk), and selected aggregate broader Mexican-aviation + selected aggregate domestic-economy dynamics. Risks: Mexican political-environment (selected aggregate Sheinbaum administration policy decisions on selected aggregate concession-holders), Trump-administration trade-tariffs (selected aggregate the dominant external macro risk), MXN-USD exchange volatility, hurricane + selected aggregate natural-disaster risk, MDP-renegotiation adverse outcomes. Comp set: Mexican airport-operators — Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASR) the southeast-Mexico operator with selected aggregate Cancún (Mexico's #2 airport) — selected aggregate larger revenue scale + selected aggregate similar concession framework, Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (PAC) the western-Mexico + Guadalajara + Tijuana operator at similar scale to OMA; in selected aggregate global airport-operators — Aeroports de Paris (ADP-PA), Fraport (FRA-DE), Aena (AENA-ES) Spanish airports, Auckland International Airport (AIA), Sydney Airport (acquired 2021), Heathrow Airport Holdings, Singapore Changi, Tokyo Narita, Beijing Capital Airport.

Capital Position + Balance Sheet

OMA runs a moderately-leveraged, dividend-paying, dollarized-investor-attractive balance sheet. Net leverage at selected various aggregate ~0.5-1.5x net-debt-to-TTM-adjusted-EBITDA — selected aggregate among the cleanest balance sheets in global-airport-operators reflecting selected aggregate (a) the concession economics (selected aggregate stable cash flows + selected aggregate moderate capex + selected aggregate strong margins), (b) disciplined financial management under selected aggregate Vinci Airports' strategic-operator stewardship, and (c) Mexican peso + selected aggregate USD-denominated debt mix that selected aggregate management has selected aggregate optimized for the cash-flow profile. Debt structure: selected aggregate senior unsecured notes (Mexican peso + selected aggregate USD-denominated) + selected aggregate revolving credit facility with selected aggregate investment-grade-adjacent ratings (BB+ to BBB-area). Free cash flow: selected various aggregate MXN 4-6B/yr (selected aggregate ~$0.20-0.30B USD-equivalent) — selected aggregate substantial reflecting the ~60-65%+ adjusted EBITDA margin + selected aggregate moderate capex (selected aggregate MDP-related infrastructure investment). Capex: selected various aggregate MXN 1.5-3.0B/yr (selected aggregate ~$0.07-0.15B USD-equivalent) — selected aggregate MDP-cycle-driven + selected aggregate variable with selected aggregate the 5-year capex-commitment phase. Dividend: a regular distribution program — selected aggregate quarterly distributions that selected aggregate vary based on selected aggregate per-share distribution amounts; recent USD-equivalent annual distribution selected aggregate ~$1.20+/yr per ADR, yielding selected various aggregate ~3-5%+ on the ADR at current prices; selected aggregate the distribution policy targets selected aggregate ~70-90% payout-ratio of selected aggregate free cash flow. Modest opportunistic buybacks. Shares outstanding: selected various aggregate ~390M ADR-equivalent (selected aggregate the Mexican-listed shares + ADR-equivalent shares — selected aggregate one ADR equals selected aggregate eight underlying Series B shares as the typical ratio). Strategic shareholders: Vinci Airports holds selected aggregate ~30%+ strategic-operator interest — selected aggregate providing selected aggregate operational + selected aggregate technical-expertise + selected aggregate alignment; selected aggregate Aeroinvest (Empresas ICA-related) is selected aggregate the historical Mexican-strategic-shareholder. The principal balance-sheet considerations are the MDP-renegotiation tariff outcomes (selected aggregate the dominant near-term cash-flow driver), distribution-coverage (well-covered from FCF), MXN-USD-FX management for selected aggregate ADR-investor returns, capex pacing under MDP commitments, and selected aggregate Vinci + Aeroinvest strategic-shareholder relationships.

Key Core Metrics

• Revenue: selected various aggregate ~MXN 14-16B FY2025 (~10-15%+ YoY growth)
• Adjusted EBITDA: selected various aggregate ~MXN 9-11B FY2025
• Adjusted EBITDA margin: ~60-65%+ (among highest in global airport-operators)
• Free cash flow: MXN 4-6B/yr ($0.20-0.30B USD-equivalent)
• Passenger traffic: ~24-26M FY2025 (solidly above pre-COVID ~20-22M peak)
• Airports operated: 13 (Mexican central + northern region)
• Top airport: Monterrey (MTY) — ~50-60%+ of total revenue, Mexico's 3rd-largest airport
• Tourism airports: Mazatlán, Acapulco (Otis-recovery), Zihuatanejo
• Border/industrial: Ciudad Juárez, Reynosa, Tampico
• Manufacturing/regional: Chihuahua, Culiacán, Torreón, Durango, Zacatecas, others
• Concession framework: 50-year SCT concession through 2048 (with possible extension)
• MDP cycle: 5-year Master Development Program governing MTU/TUM tariff + capex
• 2025 MDP renegotiation: key near-term regulatory cycle event for 2026-2030
• Revenue mix: aeronautical ~70-75% + non-aeronautical commercial ~25-30% (growing)
• Strategic operator partner: Vinci Airports (~30%+ stake, French)
• Historical Mexican strategic shareholder: Aeroinvest (Empresas ICA-related)
• Net debt / TTM adj EBITDA: ~0.5-1.5x (among cleanest in global airport-operators)
• Credit rating: BB+ to BBB-area (IG-adjacent)
• Capex: MXN 1.5-3.0B/yr ($0.07-0.15B USD-eq, MDP-cycle-driven)
• Dividend (USD-equivalent annual): ~$1.20+/ADR (variable, quarterly distributions)
• Dividend yield: ~3-5%+ on ADR
• Distribution payout ratio: ~70-90% of FCF
• Buybacks: modest opportunistic
• Shares outstanding: ~390M ADR-equivalent (1 ADR = 8 Series B shares)
• CEO: Ricardo Dueñas (since 2021)
• Headquarters: Monterrey, Mexico (Mexican-listed + NASDAQ ADR)
• 1998 Mexican airport privatization: divided airports into OMA + PAC + ASR + government-retained

Market Evaluation

At roughly ~$30-50 per ADR on ~390M ADR-equivalent shares, OMA carries an equity value of selected various aggregate ~$12-19B USD-equivalent (selected aggregate note ADR-equivalent share-count + selected aggregate per-ADR pricing) and an enterprise value of selected various aggregate ~$12-20B (selected aggregate near-net-cash given the modest leverage), trading on FY2025e adjusted EBITDA at selected various aggregate ~9-14x EV/adj-EBITDA — selected aggregate the typical Mexican-airport-concession-operator multiple, with the ~3-5% dividend yield meaningful + selected aggregate the nearshoring + Monterrey + tourism structural-growth thesis as the bullish-multiple-expansion option. The comp set: Mexican airport-operators — Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASR) at similar 9-13x EV/EBITDA multiple (Cancún + Yucatán + selected aggregate Caribbean tourism — selected aggregate the Tier 2 mcap-scale comp), Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (PAC) at similar 9-13x (Guadalajara + Tijuana + Puerto Vallarta + western Mexico tourism); in selected aggregate global airport-operators — Aeroports de Paris (ADP-PA) at ~9-13x EV/EBITDA Paris-airports + selected aggregate global presence, Fraport (FRA-DE) at ~9-12x Frankfurt + global, Aena (AENA-ES) at ~11-15x Madrid + Spanish airports + selected aggregate other-global, Auckland International Airport (AIA) at ~16-22x premium NZ-focused, Heathrow Airport Holdings (private), Singapore Changi (private), Sydney Airport (taken private 2021), Beijing Capital International Airport (HK-listed), Tokyo Narita + Haneda. FY2026 base case: passenger-traffic growth continues at ~5-8%/yr (Monterrey + nearshoring + tourism recovery) + 2025 MDP renegotiation produces selected aggregate fair tariff-framework + non-aeronautical commercial revenue growing + revenue ~MXN 15-17B + adj EBITDA ~MXN 10-12B + distribution stable-to-growing + leverage moderate = a ~10-20% USD-equivalent total-return year (selected aggregate inclusive of FX-and-distribution components). Bull case: Monterrey nearshoring traffic accelerates dramatically (Trump-tariff threats subside, USMCA preferential status reinforced) + Acapulco recovery delivers + MDP tariffs are favorable + tourism strengthens + the stock re-rates higher + 30-40%+ USD total return. Bear case: Trump-tariffs imposed on Mexico (reversing nearshoring momentum) + MDP renegotiation produces adverse tariff outcomes + MXN-USD depreciation hits ADR returns + selected aggregate Mexican political-environment pressures concession-holders + de-rating + flat-to-negative USD return. The thesis turns on the 13-airport Mexican concession pipeline (Monterrey-anchored industrial-and-business + Pacific-tourism + border + manufacturing + competitive position vs ASR + PAC) plus the regulatory + nearshoring + tourism pipeline (2025 MDP renegotiation + nearshoring structural-growth + tourism recovery + Trump-tariff risks + Mexican political-environment + Vinci Airports strategic-operator stewardship) plus the disciplined balance-sheet + distribution policy + Ricardo Dueñas's continued operational + selected aggregate Vinci Airports' continued strategic-operator stewardship.