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[MORN] Morningstar Thesis 2026: PitchBook and Data Analytics Compound the Recurring Revenue Base

Ddrillr ResearchOriginal research
Published 17 min read

Morningstar, Inc. (NASDAQ: MORN) is an independent investment research and data company, founded 1984 by Joe Mansueto (now Executive Chairman and ~35-40%+ controlling shareholder), NASDAQ-listed since 2005, and headquartered in Chicago. MORN enters FY2026 with FY2025 revenue ~$2.3-2.6B (+6-12% YoY off $2.45B FY2024) and adj. EPS ~$8.00-10.00, reflecting ~$0.85-0.95B aggregate Morningstar Data & Analytics revenue + ~$0.65-0.75B aggregate PitchBook revenue + ~$0.30-0.38B aggregate Morningstar Credit (DBRS Morningstar) revenue + ~$0.45-0.55B aggregate Morningstar Wealth + Retirement revenue plus Morningstar Indexes and Sustainalytics, all under President + CEO Kunal Kapoor (CEO since ~2017, ~8-9 year tenure, ~20+ year Morningstar career, architect of the PitchBook scale-up, the DBRS Morningstar and Sustainalytics acquisitions, the Morningstar Wealth buildout and the organic-growth, recurring-revenue focus). The first thesis pillar is the Morningstar Data & Analytics + PitchBook pipeline (~$1.5-1.7B revenue, ~62-68% revenue mix): on the public-markets side, Morningstar Direct (the flagship investment-analysis platform for institutions, asset managers and advisors), Morningstar Data feeds (managed-investment, equity and index data licensed to platforms, media and fintechs), Advisor Workstation/Office and Morningstar.com/Premium — license-based recurring revenue with ~90%+ retention and AI-enhanced analytics (Direct Lens); and on the private-markets side, PitchBook — the leading private-capital-markets database (VC, PE, M&A, LP/GP and company data) sold to PE/VC firms, investment banks, corporates, consultants and LPs, growing at a double-digit % organic clip (the fastest-growing major business), high-incremental-margin, with LCD (Leveraged Commentary & Data) integrated and adjacency expansion underway; the combined business is ~80%+ recurring/subscription with ~25-32%+ adj. operating margin, and FY2026 catalyst is ~$1.6-1.9B revenue at a ~27-34% adj. operating margin. The second pillar is the Morningstar Credit + Wealth/Retirement + Indexes pipeline (~$0.8-1.0B revenue, ~32-38% revenue mix): Morningstar Credit (DBRS Morningstar, the #4 global ratings agency, rating structured finance — ABS/CMBS/RMBS — plus corporates, financial institutions and sovereigns, cyclical with debt-issuance volumes), Morningstar Wealth (Investment Management, managed/model portfolios, the TAMP/Morningstar Wealth Platform, AUM/A-driven asset-based fees), Morningstar Retirement (workplace/retirement managed accounts and advice, AUM-driven fees, recordkeeper relationships), Morningstar Indexes (index licensing to ETFs and structured products, asset-based and license fees) and Sustainalytics (ESG risk ratings, research and data); FY2026 catalyst is a credit-issuance cyclical recovery boosting DBRS Morningstar plus Wealth/Retirement AUM growth plus Indexes asset growth plus revenue-base diversification. The capital story: a ~$0.92-1.10 aggregate annual dividend per share (~0.3-0.5% yield; quarterly; ~10-15% payout — low, with growth-reinvestment and buyback priority), opportunistic buybacks (~$0.1-0.3B annual; the founder's controlling stake limits float-dilution concerns), ~$0.5-1.0B net debt (de-levered post the 2021-2024 DBRS/LCD acquisition debt on strong free-cash-flow generation), ~0.5-1.5x net debt/EBITDA (low leverage), a non-rated to investment-grade-equivalent credit profile and ~42-44M diluted shares with limited public float; strong free cash flow funds dividend growth, buybacks and selective bolt-on M&A. At ~$280-380 per share on ~42-44M shares (~$12-17B equity, ~$13-18B EV) MORN trades at ~25-35x P/E, ~5-8x P/Sales and ~18-28x EV/EBITDA versus financial-data, ratings, indexes and wealth-tech peers S&P Global, MSCI, FactSet, Moody's, LSEG, Verisk, Preqin (PitchBook), Envestnet, SEI and Broadridge. FY2026 base case is ~$2.5-2.9B revenue + ~$9.00-12.00 adj. EPS + ~$0.65-0.85B adj. EBITDA + ~6-12% organic revenue growth; bull case ~$2.7-3.1B revenue + ~$12.00-15.00 adj. EPS on sustained PitchBook double-digit % growth plus adjacency expansion plus ~90%+ retention plus AI-enhanced productivity plus a debt-issuance cyclical recovery boosting DBRS Morningstar plus Wealth/Retirement and Indexes asset growth and a multiple re-rating; bear case ~$2.3-2.6B revenue + ~$7.50-9.50 adj. EPS on competitive intensification (S&P Global, MSCI, FactSet, Moody's, Preqin, Envestnet), asset-management fee-pressure squeezing data budgets, PitchBook organic-growth deceleration (the bull case rests on it), AI commoditizing data/research, debt-issuance cyclical weakness, Wealth/Retirement AUM market risk, ESG backlash, ratings-agency regulatory pressure and retention/seat-expansion or new-product misses. The thesis depends on the Morningstar Data & Analytics + PitchBook pipeline plus the Morningstar Credit + Wealth/Retirement + Indexes pipeline plus ~70-80%+ recurring/subscription mix plus ~90%+ license retention plus PitchBook double-digit % organic growth plus a debt-issuance cyclical recovery plus low leverage plus founder-controlled stability and Kunal Kapoor's PitchBook and diversification execution.

[MORN] Morningstar Thesis 2026: PitchBook and Data Analytics Compound the Recurring Revenue Base

Key Takeaways

  • MORN FY2025 revenue ~$2.3-2.6B (+6-12% YoY) with adj. EPS ~$8.00-10.00 reflecting continued ~$0.85-0.95B aggregate Morningstar Data & Analytics revenue + ~$0.65-0.75B aggregate PitchBook revenue + ~$0.30-0.38B aggregate Morningstar Credit (DBRS Morningstar) revenue + ~$0.45-0.55B aggregate Morningstar Wealth + Retirement revenue + selected various aggregate Morningstar Indexes + Sustainalytics revenue under continued President + CEO Kunal Kapoor (~8-9 year tenure as Morningstar CEO since ~2017; selected primary post-2017 succession from Joe Mansueto (founder, now Executive Chairman + ~controlling shareholder) + selected various aggregate ~~20+ year Morningstar career — research + product + investment-management roles + selected primary architect of post-2017-2025 ~~PitchBook integration + scale-up + DBRS Morningstar acquisition + Sustainalytics acquisition + Morningstar Wealth buildout + selected various aggregate ~~organic-growth + recurring-revenue focus).
  • Morningstar Data & Analytics + PitchBook Pipeline (~$1.5-1.7B Revenue): ~$0.85-0.95B aggregate Data & Analytics revenue + ~$0.65-0.75B aggregate PitchBook revenue (aggregate ~62-68% revenue mix); selected primary Morningstar Data & Analytics (selected primary ~~Morningstar Direct (the flagship investment-analysis platform for institutions + asset managers + advisors) + selected various aggregate ~~Morningstar Data feeds (managed-investment + equity + index data licensed to platforms + media + fintechs) + selected various aggregate ~~Advisor Workstation + Office + selected various aggregate ~~Morningstar.com + Premium + selected various aggregate ~~~license-based recurring revenue + ~~retention ~~90%+ + selected various aggregate ~~Direct Lens / AI-enhanced analytics) + selected various aggregate PitchBook (selected primary ~~private-capital-markets data — VC + PE + M&A + LP/GP + startup/company data + selected various aggregate ~~the leading private-markets database + selected various aggregate ~~subscriptions to PE/VC firms + investment banks + corporates + consultants + LPs + selected various aggregate ~~~double-digit % organic growth (the fastest-growing major business) + selected various aggregate ~~high incremental margin + selected various aggregate ~~LCD (Leveraged Commentary & Data — leveraged-loan data) integration + selected various aggregate ~~~PitchBook expansion into adjacencies) + selected various aggregate post-2024-2025 ~Data & Analytics + PitchBook growth + margin (selected primary ~~PitchBook double-digit % growth + selected various aggregate ~~Data & Analytics mid-single-digit % growth + selected various aggregate ~~recurring/subscription mix ~~~80%+ + selected various aggregate ~~operating leverage + selected various aggregate ~~~25-32%+ aggregate Data & Analytics + PitchBook adj. operating margin).
  • Morningstar Credit + Wealth/Retirement + Indexes Pipeline (~$0.8-1.0B Revenue + Diversification Catalyst): ~$0.30-0.38B aggregate Morningstar Credit (DBRS Morningstar) revenue + ~$0.45-0.55B aggregate Morningstar Wealth + Retirement revenue + selected various aggregate Morningstar Indexes + Sustainalytics revenue (aggregate ~32-38% revenue mix); selected primary Morningstar Credit (selected primary ~~DBRS Morningstar credit-ratings agency — structured finance (ABS + CMBS + RMBS) + corporates + financial institutions + sovereigns + selected various aggregate ~~the #4 global ratings agency + selected various aggregate ~~credit analytics + research + selected various aggregate ~~cyclical with debt-issuance volumes (structured finance + corporate)) + selected various aggregate Morningstar Wealth (selected primary ~~Investment Management — managed portfolios + model portfolios + selected various aggregate ~~TAMP / Morningstar Wealth Platform + selected various aggregate ~~~AUM/A-driven asset-based fees + selected various aggregate ~~advisor distribution) + selected various aggregate Morningstar Retirement (selected primary ~~workplace/retirement managed accounts + advice + selected various aggregate ~~~AUM-driven fees + selected various aggregate ~~recordkeeper relationships) + selected various aggregate Morningstar Indexes (selected primary ~~index licensing — ETFs + structured products tracking Morningstar indexes + selected various aggregate ~~~asset-based + license fees + selected various aggregate ~~partnership with index-product issuers) + selected various aggregate Sustainalytics (selected primary ~~ESG risk ratings + research + data + selected various aggregate ~~~subscription + license revenue + selected various aggregate ~~~ESG-demand-cycle-sensitive) + selected various aggregate post-2024-2025 ~Credit + Wealth/Retirement + Indexes growth + selected various aggregate ~~credit-ratings cyclical recovery (debt issuance) + selected various aggregate ~~Wealth/Retirement AUM growth + selected various aggregate ~~Indexes asset-growth + selected various aggregate ~~diversification of the revenue base.
  • Capital position + balance sheet: ~$0.92-1.10 aggregate annual dividend per share (~~0.3-0.5% aggregate yield; selected primary ~~progressive/growing dividend + selected various aggregate ~~quarterly + selected various aggregate ~~~10-15% payout (low — growth-reinvestment + buyback priority)) + selected various aggregate ~$0.1-0.3B aggregate annual buybacks (selected primary ~~opportunistic — Joe Mansueto's controlling stake (~35-40%+) limits float dilution concerns) + aggregate net debt ~$0.5-1.0B (selected various aggregate ~~~de-levered post-2021-2024 DBRS/LCD acquisition debt + selected various aggregate ~~~strong free-cash-flow generation) + selected primary ~~0.5-1.5x aggregate net debt / EBITDA (low leverage) + non-rated to investment-grade-equivalent credit profile + ~~~42-44M aggregate diluted shares (selected various aggregate ~~~Joe Mansueto ~35-40%+ ownership — limited float).
  • FY2026 thesis catalysts: Morningstar Data & Analytics + PitchBook pipeline (~$1.5-1.7B + Morningstar Direct + Data feeds + Advisor Workstation + PitchBook private-markets data + LCD + ~80%+ recurring/subscription mix + ~90%+ retention + PitchBook double-digit % organic growth + operating leverage + 25-32%+ adj. operating margin + AI-enhanced analytics) + Morningstar Credit + Wealth/Retirement + Indexes pipeline ($0.8-1.0B + DBRS Morningstar #4 ratings agency + credit-issuance cyclical recovery + Morningstar Wealth TAMP/managed portfolios + Morningstar Retirement managed accounts + Morningstar Indexes ETF licensing + Sustainalytics ESG + diversification) + ~$0.92-1.10 dividend + opportunistic buybacks + low leverage + Kunal Kapoor PitchBook + diversification execution.

Company Background

Morningstar, Inc. (NASDAQ: MORN) is an independent investment research and data company, founded 1984 by Joe Mansueto (selected primary post-1984 founding as a mutual-fund research/data shop + selected post-2005 ~~IPO on NASDAQ + selected post-2005-2025 ~~~expansion via acquisitions — Ibbotson + Morningstar Investment Management + HelloWallet + PitchBook (2016, full ownership) + DBRS (2019, became DBRS Morningstar) + Sustainalytics (2020) + Leveraged Commentary & Data/LCD (2022) + selected various aggregate). Selected post-2005 NASDAQ listing; selected post-2017-2025 Kunal Kapoor CEO era (post-2017 succession from Joe Mansueto, now Executive Chairman + ~35-40%+ controlling shareholder; ~20+ year Morningstar career; architect of PitchBook scale-up + DBRS Morningstar + Sustainalytics + Morningstar Wealth + organic-growth focus); HQ Chicago Illinois; ~11,000-13,000 employees globally.

MORN organizes its business around products/segments: Morningstar Data & Analytics (~35-40% revenue mix; ~$0.85-0.95B; Morningstar Direct + Data feeds + Advisor Workstation + Morningstar.com) + PitchBook (~28-32% revenue mix; ~$0.65-0.75B; private-capital-markets data — VC/PE/M&A; the fastest-growing major business + LCD) + Morningstar Credit (~13-16% revenue mix; ~$0.30-0.38B; DBRS Morningstar credit ratings + credit analytics) + Morningstar Wealth (~10-13% revenue mix; managed portfolios + TAMP + Investment Management) + Morningstar Retirement (~5-8% revenue mix; workplace/retirement managed accounts) + Morningstar Indexes (~3-5% revenue mix; index licensing) + Sustainalytics (ESG ratings/data). Recurring/subscription mix: ~~70-80%+ aggregate. Geographic mix: Americas ~70-75% + EMEA ~15-20% + Asia/RoW ~8-12%.

Capital position: ~$0.92-1.10 aggregate annual dividend per share (~0.3-0.5% yield; ~10-15% payout) + ~$0.1-0.3B aggregate annual buybacks (opportunistic) + aggregate net debt ~$0.5-1.0B + ~0.5-1.5x aggregate net debt/EBITDA + non-rated to IG-equivalent credit profile + ~42-44M aggregate diluted shares (Joe Mansueto ~35-40%+ ownership).

Morningstar Data & Analytics + PitchBook Pipeline (~$1.5-1.7B Revenue)

The Morningstar Data & Analytics + PitchBook pipeline is MORN's foundation thesis: ~$0.85-0.95B aggregate Data & Analytics revenue + ~$0.65-0.75B aggregate PitchBook revenue (aggregate ~62-68% revenue mix); selected primary Morningstar Data & Analytics (selected primary ~~Morningstar Direct (the flagship investment-analysis platform for institutions + asset managers + advisors) + selected various aggregate ~~Morningstar Data feeds (managed-investment + equity + index data licensed to platforms + media + fintechs) + selected various aggregate ~~Advisor Workstation + Office + selected various aggregate ~~Morningstar.com + Premium + selected various aggregate ~~~license-based recurring revenue + ~~retention ~~90%+ + selected various aggregate ~~Direct Lens / AI-enhanced analytics) + selected various aggregate PitchBook (selected primary ~~private-capital-markets data — VC + PE + M&A + LP/GP + startup/company data + selected various aggregate ~~the leading private-markets database + selected various aggregate ~~subscriptions to PE/VC firms + investment banks + corporates + consultants + LPs + selected various aggregate ~~~double-digit % organic growth (the fastest-growing major business) + selected various aggregate ~~high incremental margin + selected various aggregate ~~LCD (Leveraged Commentary & Data) integration + selected various aggregate ~~~PitchBook expansion into adjacencies) + selected various aggregate post-2024-2025 ~Data & Analytics + PitchBook growth + margin.

FY2025 Morningstar Data & Analytics + PitchBook dynamics ($1.5-1.7B aggregate revenue): selected continued post-2024 ~~PitchBook ~double-digit % organic growth (selected primary ~~private-markets data demand + selected various aggregate ~~seat/subscription expansion + selected various aggregate ~~LCD integration + selected various aggregate ~~adjacency expansion) + selected various aggregate ~~Data & Analytics ~mid-single-digit % organic growth (selected various aggregate ~~Direct + Data feeds + Advisor Workstation + selected various aggregate ~~~90%+ retention) + selected various aggregate ~~recurring/subscription mix ~~~80%+ + selected various aggregate ~~~25-32%+ aggregate Data & Analytics + PitchBook adj. operating margin (selected various aggregate ~~operating leverage). Selected post-2024 ~$5.50-7.00 aggregate annual adj. EPS contribution as Data & Analytics + PitchBook pipeline drives the dominant recurring-revenue + margin base.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Data & Analytics + PitchBook pipeline + ~$5.50-7.00 aggregate adj. EPS contribution under continued Kunal Kapoor leadership (~8-9 year tenure). Selected aggregate ~$1.6-1.9B aggregate FY2026 Data & Analytics + PitchBook revenue + selected various ~~PitchBook ~high-single-to-double-digit % growth + Data & Analytics ~mid-single-digit % growth + selected various aggregate ~~recurring/subscription mix ~~~80%+ + selected various aggregate ~~~90%+ retention + selected various aggregate ~~AI-enhanced analytics (Direct Lens / Mo / generative-AI productivity) + selected various aggregate ~~PitchBook adjacency expansion + selected various aggregate ~~~27-34% aggregate adj. operating margin (improvement; operating leverage). Risks: S&P Global (SPGI, ~$130-180B Mcap; Market Intelligence — incl. Capital IQ + S&P data; the dominant financial-data player) + MSCI (MSCI, ~$40-55B; indexes + analytics + ESG — overlaps Morningstar Indexes + Sustainalytics) + FactSet (FDS, ~$15-20B; financial-data platform — overlaps Direct) + LSEG/Refinitiv (London Stock Exchange Group; financial data — overlaps) + Bloomberg (private; the dominant terminal) + on PitchBook: Preqin (within BlackRock; private-markets data — the key direct competitor) + PitchBook vs Crunchbase + CB Insights + Dealroom + selected various aggregate financial-data + private-markets-data competitive considerations + asset-management-industry fee-pressure considerations (Morningstar's asset-manager + advisor customers face fee compression → budget pressure on data spend) + retention/seat-expansion considerations + AI disruption considerations (generative AI could commoditize some data/research — or Morningstar could ride it via productivity + new products) + PitchBook organic-growth-deceleration considerations (the bull case rests heavily on PitchBook) + LCD/private-credit-data integration execution + new-product execution (Direct Lens, etc.) + macro/capital-markets-activity considerations (PitchBook demand correlates with VC/PE deal activity).

Morningstar Credit + Wealth/Retirement + Indexes Pipeline (~$0.8-1.0B Revenue + Diversification Catalyst)

The Morningstar Credit + Wealth/Retirement + Indexes pipeline is MORN's primary diversification + cyclical-leverage thesis: ~$0.30-0.38B aggregate Morningstar Credit (DBRS Morningstar) revenue + ~$0.45-0.55B aggregate Morningstar Wealth + Retirement revenue + selected various aggregate Morningstar Indexes + Sustainalytics revenue (aggregate ~32-38% revenue mix); selected primary Morningstar Credit (selected primary ~~DBRS Morningstar credit-ratings agency — structured finance (ABS + CMBS + RMBS) + corporates + financial institutions + sovereigns + selected various aggregate ~~the #4 global ratings agency + selected various aggregate ~~credit analytics + research + selected various aggregate ~~cyclical with debt-issuance volumes) + selected various aggregate Morningstar Wealth (selected primary ~~Investment Management — managed portfolios + model portfolios + selected various aggregate ~~TAMP / Morningstar Wealth Platform + selected various aggregate ~~~AUM/A-driven asset-based fees + selected various aggregate ~~advisor distribution) + selected various aggregate Morningstar Retirement (selected primary ~~workplace/retirement managed accounts + advice + selected various aggregate ~~~AUM-driven fees + selected various aggregate ~~recordkeeper relationships) + selected various aggregate Morningstar Indexes (selected primary ~~index licensing — ETFs + structured products + selected various aggregate ~~~asset-based + license fees) + selected various aggregate Sustainalytics (selected primary ~~ESG risk ratings + research + data) + selected various aggregate post-2024-2025 ~Credit + Wealth/Retirement + Indexes growth + selected various aggregate ~~credit-ratings cyclical recovery (debt issuance) + selected various aggregate ~~Wealth/Retirement AUM growth + selected various aggregate ~~Indexes asset-growth + selected various aggregate ~~diversification of the revenue base.

FY2025 Morningstar Credit + Wealth/Retirement + Indexes dynamics: selected primary ~$0.30-0.38B aggregate Morningstar Credit revenue (selected various aggregate ~~structured-finance + corporate ratings volumes + selected various aggregate ~~cyclical recovery off the 2022-2023 issuance trough) + selected various aggregate ~$0.45-0.55B aggregate Morningstar Wealth + Retirement revenue (selected various aggregate ~~AUM/A growth on market levels + net flows + selected various aggregate ~~TAMP + managed accounts) + selected various aggregate ~Morningstar Indexes + Sustainalytics revenue (selected various aggregate ~~Indexes asset-linked growth + selected various aggregate ~~Sustainalytics ESG-demand-cycle) + selected various aggregate post-2024-2025 ~Credit + Wealth/Retirement + Indexes growth + selected various aggregate ~~mixed margins (Credit high-margin; Wealth/Retirement lower-margin asset-based). Selected post-2024 ~$2.50-3.50 aggregate annual adj. EPS contribution as Credit + Wealth/Retirement + Indexes pipeline drives the diversification + cyclical lever.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Credit + Wealth/Retirement + Indexes pipeline + ~$2.50-3.50 aggregate adj. EPS contribution + selected various aggregate ~$0.85-1.05B aggregate FY2026 combined revenue + selected various aggregate ~~Morningstar Credit cyclical recovery (selected primary ~~structured-finance + corporate debt issuance recovery → DBRS Morningstar ratings revenue + selected various aggregate ~~private-credit ratings expansion) + selected various aggregate ~~Morningstar Wealth + Retirement AUM/A growth (market levels + net flows) + selected various aggregate ~~Morningstar Indexes asset growth (ETF/product launches tracking Morningstar indexes) + selected various aggregate ~~Sustainalytics ESG (demand-cycle-dependent) + selected various aggregate ~~diversification reducing single-product concentration. Risks: Moody's (MCO, ~$70-90B Mcap; ratings + analytics — #1 ratings) + S&P Global Ratings (SPGI; #1-2 ratings) + Fitch Ratings (within Hearst; #3 ratings — DBRS Morningstar is #4) + KBRA (private; competitor in structured finance) + on Wealth: Envestnet (within Bain/Reverence; TAMP — the dominant TAMP), SEI (SEIC), AssetMark (within GTCR), Orion + on Indexes: MSCI (MSCI), S&P Dow Jones (SPGI), FTSE Russell (LSEG), Bloomberg Indices + on ESG: MSCI ESG, S&P Global ESG, ISS ESG (Deutsche Börse) + selected various aggregate credit-ratings + wealth-tech + indexes + ESG competitive considerations + debt-issuance cyclical considerations (the key driver of Morningstar Credit — structured finance + corporate issuance volumes) + capital-markets / interest-rate considerations (issuance correlates with rates + spreads) + Wealth/Retirement AUM-market-risk considerations (asset-based fees fall with markets) + advisor-platform competitive considerations (Envestnet's scale) + ESG-backlash / demand-cycle considerations (Sustainalytics) + ratings-agency regulatory considerations (SEC + ESMA NRSRO/CRA oversight) + DBRS Morningstar market-share considerations.

Capital Position + Balance Sheet

Capital position + balance sheet: ~$0.92-1.10 aggregate annual dividend per share (~~0.3-0.5% aggregate yield; selected primary ~~progressive/growing dividend + selected various aggregate ~~quarterly + selected various aggregate ~~~10-15% payout (low — growth-reinvestment + buyback priority)) + selected various aggregate ~$0.1-0.3B aggregate annual buybacks (selected primary ~~opportunistic — Joe Mansueto's controlling stake (~35-40%+) limits float dilution concerns) + aggregate net debt ~$0.5-1.0B (selected various aggregate ~~~de-levered post-2021-2024 DBRS/LCD acquisition debt + selected various aggregate ~~~strong free-cash-flow generation) + selected primary ~~0.5-1.5x aggregate net debt / EBITDA (low leverage) + non-rated to investment-grade-equivalent credit profile + ~~~42-44M aggregate diluted shares (selected various aggregate ~~~Joe Mansueto ~35-40%+ ownership — limited float) + weighted average debt maturity ~3-6 years + selected various aggregate ~~$0.3-0.6B aggregate cash.

FY2026 catalyst: continued dividend (~$0.92-1.10 aggregate annual; selected various aggregate ~~~mid-to-high-single-digit % aggregate dividend growth) + selected continued ~$0.1-0.3B aggregate annual buybacks (opportunistic) + selected various aggregate ~~~0.5-1.5x aggregate net debt/EBITDA (selected primary ~~maintained low leverage + selected various aggregate ~~~strong free cash flow funding dividend + buybacks + selective M&A) + selected various aggregate ~~~modest/selective bolt-on M&A optionality (data + analytics + private-markets adjacencies) + selected continued non-rated to IG-equivalent credit profile. Selected dividend + selected low leverage + selected ~strong FCF support continued PitchBook + Data & Analytics + Credit + Wealth growth investment + dividend growth + selective M&A — with the founder's controlling stake providing stability + a long-term orientation.

Key Core Metrics

  • FY2025 revenue ~$2.3-2.6B (+6-12% YoY) vs $2.45B FY2024; adj. EPS ~$8.00-10.00
  • Products: Morningstar Data & Analytics ~35-40% ($0.85-0.95B; Direct + Data feeds + Advisor Workstation + Morningstar.com) + PitchBook ~28-32% ($0.65-0.75B; private-markets data — fastest-growing; + LCD) + Morningstar Credit ~13-16% ($0.30-0.38B; DBRS Morningstar ratings + credit analytics) + Morningstar Wealth ~10-13% (managed portfolios + TAMP + Investment Management) + Morningstar Retirement ~5-8% (workplace/retirement managed accounts) + Morningstar Indexes ~3-5% (index licensing) + Sustainalytics (ESG)
  • Recurring/subscription mix: ~70-80%+ aggregate; license-based-business retention: ~90%+
  • PitchBook organic growth: ~double-digit % (the fastest-growing major business)
  • Data & Analytics organic growth: ~mid-single-digit %
  • Data & Analytics + PitchBook adj. operating margin: ~25-32%+ aggregate
  • Morningstar Credit: DBRS Morningstar = #4 global ratings agency; cyclical with debt-issuance volumes (structured finance + corporate)
  • Aggregate adj. operating margin: ~20-25% aggregate; aggregate adj. EBITDA margin ~25-30%
  • Aggregate net debt: ~$0.5-1.0B (de-levered post-2021-2024 DBRS/LCD acquisitions); ~0.5-1.5x aggregate net debt/EBITDA (low leverage)
  • Non-rated to investment-grade-equivalent credit profile
  • ~42-44M aggregate diluted shares; ~$0.04B total dividends FY2025
  • Dividend: ~$0.92-1.10 aggregate annual per share (~0.3-0.5% yield; quarterly; ~10-15% payout — low; growth-reinvestment priority)
  • Opportunistic buybacks (~$0.1-0.3B aggregate annual)
  • Joe Mansueto (founder, Executive Chairman) ~35-40%+ controlling ownership — limited public float
  • ~$0.3-0.6B aggregate cash
  • ~11,000-13,000 employees globally
  • Kunal Kapoor CEO since ~2017 (~8-9 year tenure; ~20+ year Morningstar career)
  • HQ Chicago Illinois; founded 1984; NASDAQ listing 2005

Market Evaluation

MORN FY2026 market evaluation: at ~$280-380 share price + ~42-44M aggregate diluted shares = ~$12-17B equity market cap; ~$13-18B aggregate enterprise value (incl. ~$0.5-1.0B net debt); ~$0.92-1.10 aggregate annual dividend (~0.3-0.5% aggregate yield). Selected primary MORN peers: S&P Global (SPGI, ~$130-180B Mcap; ratings + Market Intelligence + Indices + Mobility) + MSCI (MSCI, ~$40-55B; indexes + analytics + ESG + private assets) + FactSet (FDS, ~$15-20B; financial-data platform) + Moody's (MCO, ~$70-90B; ratings + analytics) + LSEG (London Stock Exchange Group; financial data + indices) + Verisk (VRSK, ~$30-40B; data analytics) + CME/ICE (exchanges + data) + on PitchBook: Preqin (within BlackRock) + on Wealth: Envestnet (private; TAMP), SEI (SEIC, ~$8-12B) + Broadridge (BR, ~$25-30B) + selected various aggregate financial-data + ratings + indexes + wealth-tech companies. Selected MORN ~25-35x P/E (independent investment-research-and-data company with Morningstar Data & Analytics + PitchBook private-markets data (the growth engine) + DBRS Morningstar credit ratings + Morningstar Wealth/Retirement + Indexes + Sustainalytics + ~70-80%+ recurring/subscription mix + ~90%+ license retention + founder-controlled stability) + selected ~~5-8x P/Sales + selected ~~18-28x EV/EBITDA + ~0.3-0.5% dividend yield + selected aggregate ~$2.5-2.9B aggregate FY2026 revenue + selected aggregate ~$9.00-12.00 aggregate FY2026 adj. EPS + selected aggregate Morningstar Data & Analytics + PitchBook + Morningstar Credit + Wealth/Retirement + Indexes pipeline. FY2026 base case: ~$2.5-2.9B aggregate revenue + ~$9.00-12.00 adj. EPS + ~$0.65-0.85B adj. EBITDA + ~6-12% organic revenue growth. Bull case: Morningstar Data & Analytics + PitchBook pipeline acceleration (PitchBook double-digit % growth sustained + adjacency expansion + Data & Analytics mid-single-digit % growth + ~90%+ retention + AI-enhanced productivity + ~28-34% adj. operating margin) + Morningstar Credit + Wealth/Retirement + Indexes pipeline acceleration (debt-issuance cyclical recovery → DBRS Morningstar ratings revenue + private-credit ratings + Wealth/Retirement AUM growth + Indexes asset growth) + dividend growth + buybacks drives ~$2.7-3.1B aggregate revenue + ~$12.00-15.00 adj. EPS + multiple re-rating. Bear case: S&P Global + MSCI + FactSet + Moody's + Preqin (PitchBook) + Envestnet (Wealth) competitive intensification + asset-management-industry fee-pressure squeezing data budgets + PitchBook organic-growth deceleration (the bull case rests on it) + AI disruption commoditizing data/research + debt-issuance cyclical weakness (Morningstar Credit) + Wealth/Retirement AUM market risk + ESG backlash (Sustainalytics) + ratings-agency regulatory pressure + retention/seat-expansion misses + new-product execution misses drives ~$2.3-2.6B revenue + ~$7.50-9.50 adj. EPS + de-rating. The thesis depends on the Morningstar Data & Analytics + PitchBook pipeline + the Morningstar Credit + Wealth/Retirement + Indexes pipeline + ~70-80%+ recurring/subscription mix + ~90%+ license retention + PitchBook double-digit % organic growth + debt-issuance cyclical recovery + low leverage + founder-controlled stability + Kunal Kapoor PitchBook + diversification execution.

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