[MC] Moelis & Company Thesis 2026: A Founder-Led Independent Advisory Boutique Rides M&A Cycle Recovery

Key Takeaways

• Moelis & Company (NYSE: MC) closes FY2025 with selected various aggregate revenue of ~$1.0-1.3B (selectively-cyclical to M&A-cycle with selected aggregate 2024-2025 cyclical-recovery from selected aggregate 2023 trough), adjusted EBITDA-margin of selected aggregate ~22-28% (selectively-recovering), adjusted EPS of ~$2.50-3.85, and selected various aggregate ~75M shares outstanding under President & CEO Ken Moelis (Founder + CEO + Chairman since selected aggregate founding 2007, selected aggregate prior UBS Head of Global Investment Banking 2001-2007 + selected aggregate selected aggregate Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette + selected aggregate selected aggregate Drexel Burnham Lambert — selectively-distinctive multi-decade Wall-Street-investment-banking-and-advisory leadership).
• The first deep-dive — the M&A + Capital Markets + Restructuring independent-advisory franchise — covers Moelis's selected aggregate three primary advisory-revenue-segments: (a) M&A advisory (~55-65% of revenue, ~$0.55-0.80B) — selected aggregate the dominant largest segment providing selected aggregate buy-side + sell-side strategic-advisory for selected aggregate large + selected aggregate mid-market corporate transactions globally including selected aggregate (i) Strategic-acquisitions + selected aggregate selected aggregate divestitures, (ii) Mergers + selected aggregate cross-border-transactions, (iii) Selectively-corporate-defense + selected aggregate selected aggregate special-committees, (iv) selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate fairness-opinions + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate strategic-reviews; (b) Capital Markets advisory (~15-25% of revenue, ~$0.15-0.30B) — selected aggregate (i) Equity capital-markets (ECM) advisory (selectively-IPO-and-follow-on advisory + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate PIPE-and-private-placement advisory), (ii) Debt capital-markets (DCM) advisory (selectively-bond + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate leveraged-finance advisory), (iii) selected aggregate Selectively-private-fund-placement advisory; (c) Restructuring/Liability-Management advisory (~15-25% of revenue, ~$0.15-0.30B) — selected aggregate (i) Chapter 11 + out-of-court restructuring advisory (selected aggregate selected aggregate Moelis is selectively-among-the-top-3-global restructuring-advisory firms alongside Houlihan Lokey (HLI) + selected aggregate PJT Partners (PJT)), (ii) Creditor + debtor + selected aggregate selected aggregate ad-hoc committee advisory, (iii) Selectively-liability-management + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate distressed-M&A advisory. Independent-advisory positioning: selectively-Moelis is selectively-among-the-largest US-listed independent-advisory boutiques alongside selected aggregate Lazard (LAZ), Houlihan Lokey (HLI), Evercore (EVR), Perella Weinberg Partners (PWP), PJT Partners (PJT), Centerview (private); selectively-non-conflicted advice (no proprietary-trading + no underwriting-conflict) vs selected aggregate bulge-bracket-banks (Goldman GS, Morgan Stanley MS, JPM, Bank of America BAC, Citi C, Wells Fargo WFC + selected aggregate Boutique-but-larger Barclays + UBS + Deutsche Bank). FY2026 catalyst is M&A-cycle recovery + selected aggregate capital-markets-cycle recovery + selected aggregate restructuring-cycle continuity + selected aggregate headcount-expansion.
• The second deep-dive — the Ken Moelis founder-CEO + selected aggregate global-platform + multi-decade compounder thesis — covers Moelis's selectively-distinctive founder-led-and-controlled positioning + selected aggregate multi-decade global-platform build-out: selectively-Ken Moelis founded Moelis & Company in 2007 post-leaving UBS as selected aggregate Head of Global Investment Banking + selectively-built selected aggregate (i) Global platform across selected aggregate ~25 office-locations globally including selected aggregate (i) New York (HQ) + Boston + Chicago + Dallas + Houston + LA + San Francisco + Washington DC, (ii) London + Frankfurt + Paris + Amsterdam + Zurich + Madrid + Milan + Dubai + Tel Aviv + Mumbai, (iii) Hong Kong + Beijing + Shanghai + Tokyo + Sydney + Sao Paulo + Mexico City; (ii) ~1,000-1,200 total Managing Directors + selected aggregate selected aggregate Senior Bankers providing selected aggregate selectively-mid-to-senior banker-density vs comparable-scale-competitors; (iii) Founder-aligned-equity-compensation (selectively-Ken-Moelis-and-Senior-Bankers selected aggregate hold selected aggregate ~25-35%+ of shares-outstanding providing selected aggregate selectively-aligned-incentives**); (iv) Selectively-headcount-expansion through selected aggregate (a) Senior Banker hires from selected aggregate bulge-bracket-banks + selected aggregate (b) Multi-decade-Senior-Banker-retention via selected aggregate equity-compensation**. The multi-decade compounder thesis rests on (a) Independent-advisory structural-share-gain (selectively-independent-advisory has selectively-grown US-M&A-advisory market-share from selected aggregate ~15-20% 2010 to selected aggregate ~30-35% 2024 — selectively-secular-share-gain continues), (b) M&A-cycle recovery 2024-2026 (selectively-cyclical-recovery from 2023 trough), (c) Ken Moelis founder-CEO multi-decade continuity (selectively-Ken-Moelis is selected aggregate selectively-the-most-tenured founder-CEO among-major-independent-advisory firms + selected aggregate selected aggregate aligned-equity-compensation), (d) Selective acquisitions or selected aggregate selected aggregate strategic-options (selectively-emerging private-credit + private-equity advisory adjacencies), (e) ~$3.00/yr regular-dividend + frequent-special-dividends (selected aggregate selected aggregate ~$2-4/share special-dividends executed when selected aggregate M&A peaks); FY2026 catalyst is M&A-cycle pace + selected aggregate capital-markets pace + selected aggregate restructuring continuity + selected aggregate headcount-execution.
• Capital position is net-cash, dividend-substantial-and-cyclical, opportunistic-buyback: selected aggregate net cash ~$0.30-0.55B (selectively-cash-rich-business-model — advisory-business is selected aggregate fee-and-cash-flow-heavy + selectively-no-material-capex), selected aggregate no meaningful credit-leverage (selectively-debt-free); non-rated mid-tier (selected aggregate net-cash balance-sheet doesn't-require formal-rating); selectively-active ~$3.00 per share regular annual dividend ($0.75/quarter, ~4-5% yield) consistently-grown + frequent special dividends ($2-4/share when M&A peaks + selectively-elevated-FCF generation); selectively-active opportunistic-buybacks; ~75M shares (broadly stable with selected aggregate Ken Moelis founder-and-Senior-Banker ~25-35%+ equity-alignment).
• FY2026 catalysts: M&A-cycle recovery (selected aggregate the dominant fundamental variable — selected aggregate Fed-rate-cuts + selected aggregate corporate-confidence + selected aggregate private-equity-dry-powder deployment driving selected aggregate M&A-volume recovery), capital-markets-cycle recovery (selected aggregate selected aggregate IPO + selected aggregate ECM + DCM activity recovery), restructuring-cycle continuity (selected aggregate selectively-secular-restructuring-pipeline continues — selected aggregate selected aggregate corporate-and-LBO-default cycle), headcount-expansion (selected aggregate selectively-Senior-Banker-hires from bulge-bracket-banks + selected aggregate selected aggregate Senior-Banker-retention), special-dividend continuity (selectively-cyclical capital-return mechanism), and selected aggregate Ken Moelis founder-CEO operational + selected aggregate strategic continuity.

Company Background

Moelis & Company (NYSE: MC), headquartered in New York City, is an independent global investment-banking advisory firm — selected aggregate providing M&A + selected aggregate Capital Markets + selected aggregate Restructuring/Liability-Management advisory services to selected aggregate corporate + selected aggregate private-equity + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate creditor + debtor + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate government customers globally. The company was founded in 2007 by selected aggregate Ken Moelis (selectively-prior UBS Head of Global Investment Banking 2001-2007 + selected aggregate Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette 1990s-2001 + selected aggregate selected aggregate Drexel Burnham Lambert 1980s) in selected aggregate New York City as selected aggregate selectively-Ken-Moelis-led + Senior-Banker-anchored independent-advisory boutique post-financial-crisis-era + selectively-emerging-on-the-2007-2009-era independent-advisory-shift; IPO'd 2014 on NYSE at selected aggregate ~$25/share. Through selected aggregate multi-decade strategic-build-out, Moelis built selected aggregate (a) Global platform across selected aggregate ~25 office-locations globally, (b) selected aggregate selected aggregate ~1,000-1,200 total Managing Directors + Senior Bankers, (c) selected aggregate selected aggregate Founder-aligned-equity-compensation (selectively-Ken-Moelis-and-Senior-Bankers ~25-35%+ of shares-outstanding), (d) selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate Selectively-distinctive Restructuring-advisory leadership-position alongside Houlihan Lokey + PJT Partners. Under President & CEO Ken Moelis (Founder + CEO + Chairman since 2007, prior UBS Head of Global Investment Banking + selectively-Wall-Street-advisory-and-investment-banking veteran with selected aggregate ~40+ year career), the company has selected aggregate (i) Built selectively-one-of-the-largest-independent-advisory-firms globally, (ii) selected aggregate selected aggregate Selectively-positioned for selected aggregate independent-advisory secular-share-gain, (iii) selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate Disciplined-capital-allocation + selected aggregate special-dividend cyclical-distribution, (iv) selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate Multi-decade-founder-CEO operational + strategic continuity. Capital structure: net cash ~$0.30-0.55B, non-rated, $3.00/yr regular + special-dividends + opportunistic-buybacks, ~75M shares + Ken Moelis founder-and-Senior-Banker ~25-35%+; selected aggregate the M&A-cycle + capital-markets-cycle + restructuring-continuity + headcount-execution + Ken Moelis founder-CEO continuity are selected aggregate the dominant strategic + financial variables.

The M&A + Capital Markets + Restructuring Independent-Advisory Franchise

Moelis's first leg is the M&A + Capital Markets + Restructuring independent-advisory franchise — selected aggregate the three-segment advisory-revenue business + selected aggregate the multi-decade-Wall-Street-independent-advisory-positioning. (a) M&A advisory segment (~$0.55-0.80B revenue, ~55-65% of total): selected aggregate the dominant largest segment providing selected aggregate buy-side + sell-side strategic-advisory for selected aggregate large + mid-market corporate-transactions globally. M&A product range: (i) Strategic-acquisitions + divestitures: selected aggregate selected aggregate corporate-advisory across selected aggregate buy-side + sell-side mandates, (ii) Mergers + cross-border-transactions: selected aggregate selected aggregate cross-border M&A across selected aggregate US-EU-Asia-Latin-America mandates, (iii) Corporate-defense + special-committees: selectively-special-committee + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate hostile-defense + selected aggregate poison-pill advisory, (iv) Fairness-opinions + strategic-reviews: selectively-fairness-opinion + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate strategic-review-and-portfolio-evaluation advisory. Sector-focus: selectively-broad sector-coverage including selected aggregate Energy + Financial Services + Healthcare + Industrials + Power + Real Estate + Retail + Technology + Telecommunications + Transportation + Consumer + Media + selected aggregate other-sectors. (b) Capital Markets advisory segment (~$0.15-0.30B revenue, ~15-25% of total): providing selected aggregate (i) Equity capital-markets (ECM) advisory (IPO-and-follow-on advisory + PIPE-and-private-placement advisory + selectively-rights-issue + secondary-offering advisory), (ii) Debt capital-markets (DCM) advisory (bond + leveraged-finance + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate convertible advisory), (iii) Private-fund-placement advisory (selected aggregate selectively-private-equity + selected aggregate private-credit fund-placement). Selectively-non-conflicted-advisory positioning (no proprietary-trading + no underwriting-conflict). (c) Restructuring/Liability-Management advisory segment (~$0.15-0.30B revenue, ~15-25% of total): providing selected aggregate (i) Chapter 11 + out-of-court restructuring advisory — selected aggregate selectively-Moelis is selectively-among-the-top-3-global restructuring-advisory firms alongside Houlihan Lokey (HLI) + PJT Partners (PJT) representing selected aggregate ~70-80%+ of large-cap restructuring-advisory mandates globally, (ii) Creditor + debtor + ad-hoc committee advisory (selectively-cross-side restructuring advisory), (iii) Liability-management + distressed-M&A advisory (selectively-elevated 2023-2025 default-cycle activity). Independent-advisory positioning: selectively-Moelis is selectively-among-the-largest US-listed independent-advisory-boutiques alongside selected aggregate **Lazard (LAZ) ~$3-4B mkt cap (selectively-largest US-listed independent-advisory-firm + most-diversified including asset-management + global-reach), **Houlihan Lokey (HLI) ~$10-12B mkt cap (selectively-largest restructuring + selectively-mid-market-focused), **Evercore (EVR) ~$10-12B mkt cap (selectively-large-cap-M&A focused + selectively-most-direct-comp), **Perella Weinberg Partners (PWP) ~$1-1.5B mkt cap (selectively-emerging boutique), **PJT Partners (PJT) ~$5-7B mkt cap (selectively-Blackstone-spin-off + selectively-restructuring + private-equity-secondary advisory), Centerview Partners (private boutique), Greenhill (acquired by Mizuho 2023), Lincoln International (private), Allen & Company (private), Robey Warshaw (private UK). vs Bulge-Bracket banks: selectively-Moelis competes vs selected aggregate Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC) at much-larger scale + selectively-Bulge-Bracket-conflicts (proprietary-trading + underwriting + lending-relationships). FY2026 catalyst is M&A-cycle recovery + capital-markets-cycle recovery + restructuring-cycle continuity + headcount-expansion. Risks/competitors: selectively-elevated-Bulge-Bracket-share + selectively-competitive-Senior-Banker-hire-environment + selectively-elevated-compensation-and-equity-grant pressure on margins.

The Ken Moelis Founder-CEO + Global-Platform + Multi-Decade Compounder Thesis

The second deep-dive covers Moelis's Ken Moelis founder-CEO + global-platform + multi-decade compounder thesis. (a) Ken Moelis founder-CEO positioning: selectively-Ken Moelis founded Moelis & Company in 2007 post-leaving UBS as Head of Global Investment Banking; selectively-prior-DLJ (1990s-2001) + selectively-Drexel Burnham Lambert (1980s); selectively-Wall-Street-advisory-and-investment-banking veteran with ~40+ year career; selectively-the-most-tenured founder-CEO among-major-independent-advisory firms (vs selectively-Lazard CEO Peter Orszag since 2023, Evercore CEO John Weinberg since 2022, Houlihan Lokey CEO Scott Adelson since 2021, PJT Partners CEO Paul Taubman founder since 2015). (b) Global-platform build-out: selectively-Moelis operates ~25 office-locations globally including selected aggregate (i) Americas: New York (HQ) + Boston + Chicago + Dallas + Houston + LA + San Francisco + Washington DC + Sao Paulo + Mexico City; (ii) Europe + Middle East + Africa: London + Frankfurt + Paris + Amsterdam + Zurich + Madrid + Milan + Dubai + Tel Aviv + Mumbai; (iii) Asia-Pacific: Hong Kong + Beijing + Shanghai + Tokyo + Sydney. (c) Managing Director density: selectively-Moelis maintains ~1,000-1,200 total Managing Directors + Senior Bankers providing selected aggregate selectively-mid-to-senior banker-density vs comparable-scale-competitors + selected aggregate selectively-substantial multi-decade-Senior-Banker-tenure across-firms. (d) Founder-aligned-equity-compensation: selectively-Ken-Moelis-and-Senior-Bankers selected aggregate hold selected aggregate ~25-35%+ of shares-outstanding providing selected aggregate selectively-aligned-incentives + selectively-Senior-Banker-multi-year-vesting-equity-grants providing selected aggregate selectively-retention-mechanism. (e) Selective-headcount-expansion: selected aggregate (i) Senior Banker hires from bulge-bracket-banks (selectively-elevated post-2008-financial-crisis + post-2020-COVID-era + post-2022-investment-banking-pullback periods + selected aggregate ongoing-recruitment), (ii) Multi-decade-Senior-Banker-retention via equity-compensation. Multi-decade compounder thesis combines (a) Independent-advisory structural-share-gain (selectively-independent-advisory-share-of-US-M&A-fee-pool grew from ~15-20% 2010 to ~30-35% 2024 — selectively-secular-share-gain continues driven by selected aggregate (i) Bulge-Bracket-conflict-concerns, (ii) selected aggregate Selectively-elevated CEO + Board independent-advisor-preference, (iii) selected aggregate selected aggregate Selectively-elevated private-equity-buy-side mandate volume), (b) M&A-cycle recovery 2024-2026 (selectively-cyclical-recovery from 2023 trough as selected aggregate Fed-rate-cuts + corporate-confidence + private-equity-dry-powder deployment), (c) Ken Moelis founder-CEO multi-decade continuity, (d) Selective adjacencies optionality (selectively-private-credit + private-equity advisory expansion), (e) ~$3.00/yr regular-dividend + frequent-special-dividends (cyclical capital-return), (f) Restructuring-counter-cyclical-cash-flow (selectively-restructuring-revenue selectively-peaks at selected aggregate M&A-and-credit-troughs providing selected aggregate selected aggregate counter-cyclical-revenue stabilization). FY2026 catalyst: M&A-cycle pace + capital-markets pace + restructuring continuity + headcount-execution + special-dividend continuity. Risks: M&A-cycle-prolonged-weakness (selectively-the-dominant cyclical-risk), Senior-Banker-departure-risk (selectively-competitive-recruiting from selected aggregate Bulge-Bracket-banks + boutique-competitors), compensation-and-equity-grant-pressure on margins, regulatory-environment (selectively-antitrust + selected aggregate selected aggregate cross-border-deal-environment), and selectively-emerging Ken-Moelis-CEO-multi-decade-succession (selectively-Ken Moelis age + selectively-eventual-succession-planning). Comp set: independent-advisory + boutiques — Lazard (LAZ) at ~13-17x EPS ($3-4B mkt cap, largest US-listed independent-advisory + asset-management diversified), Houlihan Lokey (HLI) at ~17-22x ($10-12B mkt cap, largest restructuring + mid-market-focused premium-multiple), Evercore (EVR) at ~13-17x ($10-12B mkt cap, large-cap-M&A most-direct comp), Perella Weinberg Partners (PWP) at ~12-17x ($1-1.5B mkt cap, emerging boutique), PJT Partners (PJT) at ~17-22x ($5-7B mkt cap, Blackstone-spin-off premium + restructuring + secondary advisory); Bulge-Bracket banks — Goldman Sachs (GS) at ~12-15x ($150-180B mkt cap), Morgan Stanley (MS) at ~13-17x ($170-200B), JPMorgan (JPM) at ~10-13x ($550-600B), Bank of America (BAC) at ~10-13x ($300-340B), Citigroup (C) at ~9-12x ($90-110B), Wells Fargo (WFC) at ~11-14x ($200-230B); alternative-asset-managers — Blackstone (BX) at ~22-28x ($150-180B), KKR (KKR) at ~17-22x ($75-90B), Apollo Global (APO) at ~13-17x ($55-65B), Ares Management (ARES) at ~25-32x ($30-40B).

Capital Position + Balance Sheet

Moelis runs a net-cash, dividend-substantial-and-cyclical, opportunistic-buyback balance sheet. Capital position: selected aggregate net cash ~$0.30-0.55B (selectively-cash-rich-business-model reflecting selected aggregate (i) Advisory-business is selectively-fee-and-cash-flow-heavy + selectively-no-material-capex, (ii) selected aggregate Selectively-multi-cycle-cash-buildup, (iii) selected aggregate selected aggregate Multi-decade-conservative-balance-sheet-management); no meaningful credit-leverage (selectively-debt-free). Credit profile: non-rated mid-tier (selectively-small-and-cash-rich + selectively-no-formal-debt-rating-required); minimal-debt + selected aggregate substantial-undrawn revolver-and-credit-line capacity. Liquidity: $0.40-0.65B cash-and-investments + selected aggregate substantial-undrawn revolver. FCF: selected various aggregate ~$200-400M/yr cyclical (selectively-explosive in selected aggregate M&A-and-capital-markets-peak-years + selectively-trough in selected aggregate cyclical-down-years); selectively-deployed-into selected aggregate (i) Regular dividend ~$225-230M/yr, (ii) selected aggregate Special dividends ~$150-300M+ when M&A peaks, (iii) selected aggregate selected aggregate Opportunistic-buybacks ~$50-150M/yr typical, (iv) selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate Residual-cash-buildup. Regular dividend: regular ~$3.00 per share annual ($0.75/quarter), yielding selected various aggregate ~4-5% on the stock — selectively-consistently-grown with selected aggregate mid-to-high-single-digit-percent annual hikes; selectively-elevated payout-ratio at ~75-100%+ during cyclical-trough-earnings + selectively-comfortably-covered at ~40-60% during cyclical-peak-earnings. Special dividends: selectively-frequent (selected aggregate ~$2-4/share special-dividends executed when selected aggregate M&A peaks + selectively-elevated-FCF generation); selectively-the-distinctive Moelis cyclical-capital-return-mechanism. Buybacks: selectively-active opportunistic-execution; ~$50-150M/yr typical. Shares outstanding: selected various aggregate ~75M (broadly stable with selected aggregate Ken Moelis founder-and-Senior-Banker ~25-35%+ equity-alignment + selectively-meaningful annual SBC + selectively-offset by selective-buyback). The principal balance-sheet considerations are the FCF-cyclicality + selected aggregate M&A-cycle-exposure, dividend-coverage at cyclical-trough vs peak-earnings, special-dividend continuity (selectively-cyclical capital-return mechanism), Senior-Banker-equity-grant-compensation drag, buyback-pace at attractive multi-cycle prices, and selected aggregate Ken Moelis founder-CEO multi-decade-stewardship continuity.

Key Core Metrics

• Revenue: ~$1.0-1.3B FY2025 (selectively-cyclical M&A-recovery from 2023 trough)
• Adjusted EBITDA: ~$0.22-0.36B (~22-28% margins recovering)
• Net income: ~$0.19-0.29B FY2025
• Adjusted EPS: ~$2.50-3.85 FY2025
• Free cash flow: ~$200-400M/yr cyclical
• M&A advisory segment: ~$0.55-0.80B (~55-65% of revenue)
• Capital Markets advisory: ~$0.15-0.30B (~15-25%)
• Restructuring/Liability-Management advisory: ~$0.15-0.30B (~15-25%)
• Total Managing Directors + Senior Bankers: ~1,000-1,200
• Global office-locations: ~25 (Americas + EMEA + Asia-Pacific)
• Independent-advisory market-share: top-3 US-listed (alongside Lazard, Houlihan Lokey, Evercore)
• Restructuring-advisory positioning: top-3 global (alongside Houlihan Lokey, PJT Partners)
• Net cash: ~$0.30-0.55B (cash-rich-business-model)
• Credit profile: non-rated mid-tier (debt-free)
• Liquidity: ~$0.40-0.65B cash + undrawn revolver
• Capex: minimal (advisory-business)
• Regular dividend: $3.00/yr ($0.75/quarter); ~4-5% yield
• Special dividends: ~$2-4/share frequent (cyclical M&A-peak capital-return)
• Dividend payout ratio: ~75-100%+ trough; ~40-60% peak
• Buybacks: ~$50-150M/yr opportunistic
• Shares outstanding: ~75M
• Ken Moelis + Senior-Banker equity stake: ~25-35%+
• CEO: Ken Moelis (Founder + CEO + Chairman since 2007)
• Headquarters: New York City
• Founded: 2007 (Ken Moelis post-UBS Head of Global Investment Banking)
• IPO: 2014 (NYSE at ~$25/share)

Market Evaluation

At roughly ~$60-90 per share on ~75M shares, Moelis carries an equity value of selected various aggregate ~$4.5-6.8B and an enterprise value of selected various aggregate ~$4.2-6.5B (net-cash-adjusted), trading on FY2025e adjusted EPS of ~$2.50-3.85 at selected various aggregate ~16-30x cyclical-EPS and selected various aggregate ~12-22x EV/adjusted-EBITDA — selected aggregate a typical independent-advisory boutique multiple selectively-premium-vs-bulge-bracket-banks reflecting selected aggregate (a) Independent-advisory secular-share-gain + (b) M&A-cycle-recovery optionality + (c) net-cash balance-sheet + (d) ~4-5% regular-dividend yield + selectively-substantial special-dividend optionality + (e) Ken Moelis founder-CEO multi-decade continuity + (f) Restructuring-counter-cyclical-revenue stabilization, with selected aggregate the M&A-cycle pace + capital-markets-cycle pace + headcount-expansion + special-dividend catalysts dominant. The comp set: independent-advisory + boutiques — Lazard (LAZ) at ~13-17x EPS ($3-4B mkt cap, largest US-listed independent-advisory + asset-management diversified), Houlihan Lokey (HLI) at ~17-22x ($10-12B mkt cap, restructuring + mid-market premium), Evercore (EVR) at ~13-17x ($10-12B mkt cap, large-cap-M&A most-direct comp), Perella Weinberg Partners (PWP) at ~12-17x ($1-1.5B mkt cap), PJT Partners (PJT) at ~17-22x ($5-7B mkt cap, premium + Blackstone-spin); Bulge-Bracket banks — Goldman Sachs (GS) at ~12-15x ($150-180B mkt cap), Morgan Stanley (MS) at ~13-17x ($170-200B), JPMorgan (JPM) at ~10-13x ($550-600B); alternative-asset-managers — Blackstone (BX) at ~22-28x ($150-180B), KKR (KKR) at ~17-22x ($75-90B), Apollo Global (APO) at ~13-17x ($55-65B). FY2026 base case: M&A-cycle continues recovery + revenue grows ~15-22% to ~$1.15-1.50B + EBITDA-margin expands to ~25-29% + EPS ~$3.20-4.50 + regular-dividend hiked toward $3.20-3.40/yr + special-dividend ~$2-3/share + ~12-25% total-return year. Bull case: M&A-cycle inflects strongly + private-equity-dry-powder deployment + revenue grows ~25-35% + EBITDA-margin reaches ~28-32% + EPS ~$4.50-6.50 + special-dividend ~$3-5/share + re-rate toward 18-22x EPS + 30-50%+ total return. Bear case: M&A-cycle stays weak + recession + revenue grows only ~5% + EBITDA-margin compresses + EPS stays ~$1.80-2.50 + special-dividend reduced + de-rate toward 14-17x + flat-to-negative return. The thesis turns on the M&A + Capital Markets + Restructuring advisory pipeline (M&A revenue + capital-markets + restructuring + headcount + competitive position vs LAZ/HLI/EVR/PJT/GS/MS) plus the Ken Moelis founder-CEO + global-platform + compounder pipeline (founder-CEO multi-decade continuity + ~25 office-locations + ~1,000-1,200 Senior Bankers + ~25-35%+ insider-equity-alignment + special-dividend cyclical-return) plus the net-cash balance-sheet + multi-decade independent-advisory-share-gain secular-tailwind.