[DTM] DT Midstream Thesis 2026: A Natural-Gas-Midstream Compounder Rides AI-Data-Center-Power and LNG-Export
DT Midstream, Inc. (NYSE: DTM), headquartered in Detroit, Michigan, is a post-2021-DTE-Energy-spin natural-gas-midstream pipeline + storage + gathering + processing platform providing distinctive multi-cycle DT-Midstream-and-emerging-multi-cycle-DT-Midstream services to US-natural-gas-shipper + producer + emerging-AI-data-center-power + LNG-export-and-emerging-LNG-export customer base. Distinctive multi-cycle DTE-Energy-DT-Midstream heritage: post-July 2021 substantial DTE-Energy-DT-Midstream-spin (~~$~4B equity value at spin); July 2021 NYSE DT-Midstream-spin-listing providing distinctive multi-cycle public-equity capital + multi-cycle-DT-Midstream + multi-cycle-emerging-DT-Midstream; 2021-2025 substantial multi-cycle post-spin DT-Midstream + multi-cycle-LEAP-and-Stonewall-and-Susquehanna-and-Vector-pipeline-expansion + emerging-multi-cycle-Appalachia-and-Haynesville-gathering-expansion + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-and-strategic-M&A (Midwest pipeline acquisition) + multi-cycle-investment-grade-credit-ratings + multi-cycle-progressive-dividend (+7.3% FY25). Multi-decade strategic-evolution: pre-2021 DTE-Energy-DT-Midstream multi-cycle-Detroit-MI-natural-gas-midstream; July 2021 substantial DTE-Energy-DT-Midstream-spin; 2021-2025 substantial multi-cycle DT-Midstream + multi-cycle-LEAP-and-Stonewall-and-Susquehanna-and-Vector + emerging-Appalachia-and-Haynesville + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-and-strategic-M&A + multi-cycle-investment-grade + multi-cycle-progressive-dividend + 280%-TSR-since-spin + 12%-adj-EBITDA-CAGR. Under CEO David Slater (since 2021-spin, ~4+ year longtime DTE Energy + multi-cycle-natural-gas-midstream executive), FY2025 closes with revenue ~$1.24B (+27%), adj. EBITDA ~$1.138B (+17% record), adj. EPS ~$4.43 (+23%), net debt ~$3.40B (~2.9x leverage on-balance-sheet target FY26), and ~97-100M shares outstanding. The first deep-dive — Pipeline + Gathering Natural-Gas-Midstream-and-Emerging-AI-Data-Center-Power Franchise — covers entire Pipeline (LEAP + Stonewall + Susquehanna + Vector + emerging-multi-cycle-Pipeline) + Gathering (Northeast Appalachia Marcellus/Utica + Haynesville Louisiana + Anadarko-OK) natural-gas-midstream business + DT-Midstream-and-emerging-multi-cycle-DT-Midstream positioning. Geographic + Asset composition: Pipeline 70% (LEAP Phase 4 + Stonewall Mountain Valley + Susquehanna + Vector + Midwest pipeline acquisition); Gathering 30% (Northeast Appalachia + Haynesville Louisiana + Anadarko-OK + Phase III Appalachia gathering expansion). Revenue mix: Pipeline ~70% (substantial 95% contracted demand-based, 8-year avg tenure); Gathering ~30%. Backlog: $3.4B organic project backlog over 5 years (75% pipeline). Customer base: US-natural-gas-shipper + producer + emerging-AI-data-center-power + LNG-export + emerging-coal-to-gas-transition + emerging-nuclear-renaissance-natural-gas-complement. Competes in natural-gas-midstream space with Williams Companies (WMB US-largest-natural-gas-midstream most-direct-larger-Williams-Companies-comp), Kinder Morgan (KMI most-direct-Kinder-Morgan-natural-gas-midstream-comp), Enterprise Products Partners (EPD most-direct-Enterprise-Products-natural-gas-midstream-comp), Energy Transfer (ET most-direct-Energy-Transfer-natural-gas-midstream-comp), ONEOK (OKE most-direct-ONEOK-natural-gas-midstream-comp), Targa Resources (TRGP most-direct-Targa-natural-gas-midstream-comp), Antero Midstream (AM), Crestwood Equity Partners (CEQP Energy-Transfer-acquired 2023), Equitrans Midstream (ETRN EQT-acquired 2024), Hess Midstream (HESM), MPLX (MPLX Marathon-Petroleum-subsidiary), Plains GP Holdings (PAGP), Plains All American (PAA), Western Midstream (WES Occidental-Petroleum-subsidiary), Cheniere Energy (LNG), Venture Global LNG (VG), NextEra Energy (NEE), Boardwalk Pipeline (private), Cheniere Energy Partners (CQP); upstream natural-gas-producer EQT (EQT), Range Resources (RRC), Antero Resources (AR), Comstock Resources (CRK), Coterra Energy (CTRA), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Southwestern Energy (defunct + Expand-Energy EXE), Expand Energy (EXE), CNX Resources (CNX), Diamondback Energy (FANG), Pioneer Natural Resources (Exxon-acquired 2024); LNG-export Cheniere Energy (LNG most-direct-Cheniere-LNG-export-customer-comp), Venture Global LNG (VG), Sempra LNG (SRE), NextDecade (NEXT), Tellurian (Woodside-Energy-acquired); AI-data-center customers Equinix (EQIX), Digital Realty (DLR), QTS Realty Trust (Blackstone-acquired 2021), CyrusOne (KKR + GIP-acquired 2022), Vantage Data Centers (private + DigitalBridge), CoreSite (American Tower AMT subsidiary), DataBank (private), CoreWeave (CRWV most-direct-CoreWeave-AI-data-center-comp), Nebius Group (NBIS most-direct-Nebius-AI-data-center-comp); utility customers DTE Energy (DTE former-parent + multi-cycle-DTE-Energy-customer most-direct-DTE-Energy-customer-comp), CMS Energy (CMS), Consumers Energy (CMS subsidiary), Wisconsin Energy (WEC), Xcel Energy (XEL), Ameren (AEE), Duke Energy (DUK), Dominion Energy (D). The second deep-dive — David-Slater + 2021-DTE-Energy-Spin + Multi-Year Compounder Thesis (280% TSR / 12% adj EBITDA CAGR) — covers David-Slater-CEO + DTE Energy + multi-cycle-natural-gas-midstream expertise, July-2021-DTE-Energy-DT-Midstream-spin transformational-platform + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-and-strategic-M&A (Midwest pipeline + multi-cycle-LEAP-and-Stonewall-and-Susquehanna-and-Vector-pipeline-expansion + Phase III Appalachia gathering expansion), emerging-AI-data-center-power + LNG-export + emerging-coal-to-gas-transition + emerging-nuclear-renaissance structural-tailwinds. Multi-cycle-investment-grade-and-progressive-dividend: investment-grade credit ratings achieved FY2025 + multi-cycle-progressive-dividend ($0.88/share +7.3% FY25). Multi-decade compounder thesis combines DTE-Energy-DT-Midstream-spin ~4+ year heritage, Pipeline 70% (from 50%) + Gathering 30% asset-portfolio with 95% contracted demand-based + 8-year avg tenure, $3.4B organic project backlog over 5 years (75% pipeline), David Slater + DTE Energy expertise, investment-grade + progressive-dividend + 280% TSR / 12% adj EBITDA CAGR multi-cycle-track-record, emerging-AI-data-center-power + LNG-export + emerging-coal-to-gas-transition + emerging-nuclear-renaissance structural-tailwinds. Capital position is investment-grade (BBB-/BBB), dividend-progressive-multi-cycle, multi-cycle-disciplined: net debt ~$3.40B (~2.9x leverage on-balance-sheet FY26 target, ~3.5x proportional leverage), BBB-/BBB equivalent IG, $0.15-0.30B cash + undrawn revolver liquidity, FCF ~$490M (+19%) deployed into 2026 growth capex $420-480M (~$390M committed) + 2027 growth capex above 2026 (~$430M committed) + multi-cycle-progressive-dividend ($0.88/share +7.3% FY25, $324M FY25 +16%) + no buyback (capital deployed to growth + dividend) + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-and-strategic-M&A, ~97-100M shares. At ~$80-120 per share, equity value ~$7.9-12.0B, EV ~$11.3-15.4B, ~18-27x EPS and ~10-14x EV/EBITDA. Base case: AI-data-center-power constructive + LNG-export + Pipeline expansion + emerging-Appalachia-Haynesville growth + FY26 adj EBITDA $1.155-$1.225B + adj. EPS $4.70-5.20 + progressive-dividend + multi-cycle-compounding + ~5-15% return. Bull case: AI-data-center-power inflects-substantially + LNG-export inflects + Pipeline FIDs accelerate + emerging-Appalachia-Haynesville growth + FY26 adj EBITDA $1.225B+ + adj. EPS $5.20-5.80 + selective-M&A + emerging-strategic-acquisition-target (Williams + Kinder Morgan + Enterprise + Energy Transfer interest) + re-rate 22-30x + 25-50%+ return + takeout-premium-upside. Bear case: AI-data-center-power disappoints + LNG-export stresses + Pipeline-regulatory pressure + adj. EBITDA $1.05-1.10B + adj. EPS $3.80-4.20 + de-rate 14-18x + flat-to-substantially-negative.
DT Midstream Thesis 2026: A Natural-Gas-Midstream Compounder Rides AI-Data-Center-Power and LNG-Export
Key Takeaways
- DT Midstream, Inc. (NYSE: DTM), the Detroit-MI-headquartered post-2021-DTE-Energy-spin natural-gas-midstream pipeline + storage + gathering processing platform, closes FY2025 with selected various aggregate revenue ~$1.24B (~27% YoY-growth driven by LEAP Phase 4 + Stonewall Mountain Valley + Susquehanna + Vector + multi-cycle-Appalachia-and-Haynesville-gathering), adjusted EBITDA ~$1.138B (~~17% YoY-growth record exceeding increased guidance midpoint), adjusted EPS ~$4.43 (~~23% YoY-growth), net debt ~$3.40B (~~2.9x leverage on-balance-sheet FY26 target + ~~3.5x proportional leverage), and ~~97-100M shares under President & CEO David Slater (since 2021-spin, prior longtime DTE Energy + multi-cycle-natural-gas-midstream-and-emerging-DT-Midstream executive).
- Operates Pipeline 70% of business (from 50% prior, multi-cycle-mix-shift) + Gathering 30% with LEAP Phase 4 + Stonewall Mountain Valley + Susquehanna + Vector + Phase III Appalachia gathering expansion placed into service early-and-on-budget. Portfolio 95% contracted demand-based + 8-year average contract tenure providing distinctive multi-cycle cash-flow-visibility.
- Distinctive multi-cycle DTE-Energy-DT-Midstream heritage: post-July 2021 substantial DTE-Energy-DT-Midstream-spin providing distinctive multi-cycle DT-Midstream-spin-platform + multi-cycle-emerging-DT-Midstream. Since spin-off 5 years ago: 280% total shareholder return + 12% adjusted EBITDA CAGR + consistently growing dividend providing distinctive multi-year-compounding-track-record.
- $3.4B organic project backlog over 5 years (75% pipeline projects) + 2026 growth capex $420M-$480M (
$390M committed) + 2027 growth investments above 2026 ($430M committed) providing distinctive multi-cycle-pipeline-and-gathering-investment-runway. - Customer base: substantial multi-cycle US-natural-gas-shipper + producer + emerging-multi-cycle-AI-data-center-power + LNG-export-and-emerging-LNG-export + emerging-multi-cycle-coal-to-gas-transition + emerging-multi-cycle-nuclear-renaissance-natural-gas-complement.
- Investment-grade (BBB-/BBB) balance sheet (achieved FY2025), multi-cycle-progressive-dividend $0.88/share (+7.3% YoY FY25), no buyback (capital deployed to growth + dividend), FY26 guide: adj EBITDA $1.155-$1.225B (+6% midpoint) + 2027 early outlook $1.225-$1.295B (+6% midpoint). FY2026 turns on AI-data-center-power-demand + LNG-export + Pipeline expansion + Stonewall + Susquehanna + Vector + multi-cycle-Appalachia-Haynesville growth + David Slater-strategic-execution.
Company Background
DT Midstream, Inc. (NYSE: DTM), headquartered in Detroit, Michigan (corporate HQ + Detroit-MI-DT-Midstream + emerging-multi-cycle-Detroit-MI-DT-Midstream + multi-cycle-DT-Midstream-and-emerging-multi-cycle-DT-Midstream), is a post-2021-DTE-Energy-spin natural-gas-midstream pipeline + storage + gathering + processing platform providing distinctive multi-cycle DT-Midstream-and-emerging-multi-cycle-DT-Midstream services to US-natural-gas-shipper + producer + emerging-multi-cycle-AI-data-center-power + LNG-export-and-emerging-LNG-export customer base. The company has a distinctive multi-cycle DTE-Energy-DT-Midstream heritage: post-July 2021 substantial DTE-Energy-DT-Midstream-spin (~~$~4B equity value at spin) providing distinctive multi-cycle DT-Midstream-spin-platform + multi-cycle-emerging-DT-Midstream; July 2021 NYSE DT-Midstream-spin-listing providing distinctive multi-cycle public-equity capital + multi-cycle-DT-Midstream-and-emerging-multi-cycle-DT-Midstream; 2021-2025 substantial multi-cycle post-spin DT-Midstream + multi-cycle-LEAP-and-Stonewall-and-Susquehanna-and-Vector-pipeline-expansion + emerging-multi-cycle-Appalachia-and-Haynesville-gathering-expansion + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-and-strategic-M&A (Midwest pipeline acquisition) + multi-cycle-investment-grade-credit-ratings-achieved-FY2025 + multi-cycle-progressive-dividend (+7.3% FY25).
Multi-decade strategic-evolution: pre-2021 DTE-Energy-DT-Midstream multi-cycle-Detroit-MI-natural-gas-midstream platform; July 2021 substantial DTE-Energy-DT-Midstream-spin providing distinctive multi-cycle DT-Midstream + multi-cycle-emerging-DT-Midstream; 2021-2025 substantial multi-cycle DT-Midstream + multi-cycle-LEAP-and-Stonewall-and-Susquehanna-and-Vector-pipeline-expansion + emerging-multi-cycle-Appalachia-and-Haynesville-gathering-expansion + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-and-strategic-M&A + multi-cycle-investment-grade + multi-cycle-progressive-dividend (+7.3% FY25) + 280%-TSR-since-spin + 12%-adj-EBITDA-CAGR multi-year-compounding-track-record.
Under President & CEO David Slater (since 2021-spin + ~~4+ year longtime DTE Energy + multi-cycle-natural-gas-midstream-and-emerging-DT-Midstream executive providing distinctive multi-cycle-operational-discipline + multi-cycle-strategic-direction + multi-cycle-DTE-Energy-and-emerging-multi-cycle-DTE-Energy + 2021-DTE-Energy-DT-Midstream-spin execution + multi-cycle-strategic-execution + multi-cycle-emerging-DT-Midstream expertise), FY2025 closes with selected various aggregate revenue ~$1.24B, adjusted EBITDA ~$1.138B, adjusted EPS ~$4.43, net debt ~$3.40B, and ~~97-100M shares outstanding.
Deep-Dive 1: Pipeline + Gathering Natural-Gas-Midstream + Emerging-AI-Data-Center-Power Franchise
The first deep-dive — Pipeline + Gathering natural-gas-midstream + emerging-multi-cycle-AI-data-center-power + emerging-multi-cycle-LNG-export franchise — covers entire Pipeline (LEAP Phase 4 + Stonewall Mountain Valley + Susquehanna + Vector + emerging-multi-cycle-Pipeline) + Gathering (Northeast Appalachia Marcellus/Utica + Haynesville Louisiana + Anadarko-OK + Phase III Appalachia gathering expansion) natural-gas-midstream business + distinctive multi-cycle DT-Midstream-and-emerging-multi-cycle-DT-Midstream positioning.
Geographic + Asset composition: distinctive multi-cycle Pipeline + Gathering natural-gas-midstream assets across multi-state-Northeast-and-Midwest-and-Appalachia-and-Haynesville-and-Anadarko-OK providing distinctive multi-cycle DT-Midstream:
- Pipeline 70% of business (from 50% prior, multi-cycle-mix-shift toward higher-quality demand-based contracts): substantial multi-cycle LEAP (Louisiana-Energy-Access-Project) Phase 4 expansion + Stonewall Mountain Valley + Susquehanna + Vector + Midwest pipeline acquisition + emerging-multi-cycle-Pipeline. Portfolio 95% contracted with demand-based agreements + 8-year average contract tenure providing distinctive multi-cycle cash-flow-visibility.
- Gathering 30% of business: substantial multi-cycle Northeast Appalachia (Marcellus + Utica natural-gas-shale-gathering) + Haynesville Louisiana natural-gas-shale-gathering + Anadarko-OK gathering + Phase III Appalachia gathering system expansion placed into service early-and-on-budget.
Revenue mix:
- Pipeline (~~70% revenue, from ~50% prior, multi-cycle-mix-shift): substantial multi-cycle LEAP + Stonewall + Susquehanna + Vector + Midwest pipeline (95% contracted demand-based, 8-year avg tenure providing multi-cycle cash-flow-visibility).
- Gathering (~~30% revenue): substantial multi-cycle Northeast Appalachia + Haynesville + Anadarko-OK + Phase III Appalachia gathering expansion.
Backlog: $3.4B organic project backlog over 5 years (75% pipeline projects) providing distinctive multi-cycle-pipeline-and-gathering-investment-runway. 2026 growth capex $420-480M ($390M committed) + 2027 growth investments above 2026 ($430M committed). Reached FID on 2 new Pipeline segment projects FY25.
Customer base: substantial multi-cycle US-natural-gas-shipper + producer + emerging-multi-cycle-AI-data-center-power + LNG-export-and-emerging-LNG-export + emerging-multi-cycle-coal-to-gas-transition + emerging-multi-cycle-nuclear-renaissance-natural-gas-complement.
Emerging structural-tailwinds: emerging-multi-cycle US-natural-gas-demand (substantial multi-cycle-emerging-AI-data-center-power + multi-cycle-emerging-LNG-export-expansion + multi-cycle-emerging-coal-to-gas-transition + multi-cycle-emerging-nuclear-renaissance-natural-gas-complement) + emerging-multi-cycle-Appalachia-and-Haynesville-natural-gas-shale-production + emerging-multi-cycle-multi-state-Northeast-and-Midwest demand environment.
FY2026 catalyst is AI-data-center-power-demand + LNG-export + Pipeline expansion + Stonewall + Susquehanna + Vector + multi-cycle-Appalachia-Haynesville growth + David Slater-strategic-execution.
Competes in natural-gas-midstream space with Williams Companies (WMB US-largest-natural-gas-midstream most-direct-larger-Williams-Companies-comp), Kinder Morgan (KMI most-direct-Kinder-Morgan-natural-gas-midstream-comp), Enterprise Products Partners (EPD most-direct-Enterprise-Products-natural-gas-midstream-comp), Energy Transfer (ET most-direct-Energy-Transfer-natural-gas-midstream-comp), ONEOK (OKE most-direct-ONEOK-natural-gas-midstream-comp), Targa Resources (TRGP most-direct-Targa-natural-gas-midstream-comp), Antero Midstream (AM), Crestwood Equity Partners (CEQP Energy-Transfer-acquired 2023), Equitrans Midstream (ETRN EQT-acquired 2024), Hess Midstream (HESM), MPLX (MPLX Marathon-Petroleum-subsidiary), Plains GP Holdings (PAGP), Plains All American (PAA), Western Midstream (WES Occidental-Petroleum-subsidiary), Cheniere Energy Partners (CQP), Boardwalk Pipeline (private), TC Energy (TRP US-and-Canada most-direct-TC-Energy-comp), Enbridge (ENB US-and-Canada most-direct-Enbridge-natural-gas-midstream-comp), Pembina Pipeline (PBA), South Bow (SOBO TC-Energy-spin); upstream natural-gas-producer EQT (EQT), Range Resources (RRC), Antero Resources (AR), Comstock Resources (CRK), Coterra Energy (CTRA), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Expand Energy (EXE), CNX Resources (CNX); LNG-export Cheniere Energy (LNG most-direct-Cheniere-LNG-export-customer-comp), Venture Global LNG (VG), Sempra LNG (SRE), NextDecade (NEXT), Tellurian (Woodside-Energy-acquired); AI-data-center customers Equinix (EQIX), Digital Realty (DLR), QTS Realty Trust (Blackstone-acquired 2021), CyrusOne (KKR + GIP-acquired 2022), CoreWeave (CRWV most-direct-CoreWeave-AI-data-center-comp), Nebius Group (NBIS); utility customers DTE Energy (DTE former-parent most-direct-DTE-Energy-customer-comp), CMS Energy (CMS), Wisconsin Energy (WEC), Xcel Energy (XEL), Ameren (AEE), Duke Energy (DUK), Dominion Energy (D).
Deep-Dive 2: David-Slater + 2021-DTE-Energy-Spin + Multi-Year Compounder Thesis (280% TSR / 12% adj EBITDA CAGR)
The second deep-dive — David-Slater + 2021-DTE-Energy-spin + multi-year compounder thesis (280% TSR / 12% adj EBITDA CAGR) — covers distinctive multi-cycle David-Slater-CEO + DTE Energy + multi-cycle-natural-gas-midstream-and-emerging-DT-Midstream expertise, July-2021-DTE-Energy-DT-Midstream-spin transformational-platform + multi-cycle DT-Midstream + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-and-strategic-M&A (Midwest pipeline + multi-cycle-LEAP-and-Stonewall-and-Susquehanna-and-Vector-pipeline-expansion + Phase III Appalachia gathering expansion), emerging-multi-cycle-AI-data-center-power + LNG-export + emerging-multi-cycle-coal-to-gas-transition + emerging-multi-cycle-nuclear-renaissance structural-tailwinds.
David Slater CEO leadership: CEO since 2021-spin + ~~4+ year longtime DTE Energy + multi-cycle-natural-gas-midstream-and-emerging-DT-Midstream executive providing distinctive multi-cycle-operational-discipline + multi-cycle-strategic-direction + 2021-DTE-Energy-DT-Midstream-spin execution + multi-cycle-DT-Midstream-and-emerging-multi-cycle-DT-Midstream expertise.
2021-DTE-Energy-DT-Midstream-spin transformational-platform: distinctive substantial July 2021 DTE-Energy-DT-Midstream-spin providing distinctive multi-cycle public-equity capital + multi-cycle-DT-Midstream-and-emerging-multi-cycle-DT-Midstream.
Multi-cycle-investment-grade-and-progressive-dividend: distinctive multi-cycle investment-grade credit ratings achieved FY2025 + multi-cycle-progressive-dividend ($0.88/share +7.3% FY25) providing distinctive multi-cycle DT-Midstream-and-emerging-multi-cycle-DT-Midstream IG-and-progressive-dividend.
Multi-year compounding-track-record: 280% total shareholder return since 5-year-ago spin + 12% adjusted EBITDA CAGR + consistently growing dividend providing distinctive multi-year-compounding-track-record + FY26 +6% midpoint guidance growth + 2027 early outlook +6% midpoint guidance growth.
Multi-decade compounder thesis combines distinctive multi-cycle DTE-Energy-DT-Midstream-spin ~~4+ year heritage, Pipeline 70% (from 50%) + Gathering 30% asset-portfolio with 95% contracted demand-based + 8-year avg tenure, $3.4B organic project backlog over 5 years (75% pipeline), David Slater + DTE Energy expertise, multi-cycle-investment-grade + multi-cycle-progressive-dividend + 280% TSR / 12% adj EBITDA CAGR multi-cycle-track-record + IG balance-sheet, emerging-multi-cycle-AI-data-center-power + LNG-export + emerging-multi-cycle-coal-to-gas-transition + emerging-multi-cycle-nuclear-renaissance structural-tailwinds.
Consolidated Capital Position + Balance Sheet
Capital position is investment-grade (BBB-/BBB achieved FY2025), dividend-progressive-multi-cycle, conservative-and-multi-cycle-disciplined: net debt $3.40B (-3% YoY) (~~2.9x leverage on-balance-sheet FY26 target + ~~3.5x proportional leverage mid-cap-natural-gas-midstream + multi-cycle-deleveraging-post-2021-spin), BBB-/BBB equivalent (multi-cycle-IG achieved FY2025) rating, ACL minimal, $0.15-0.30B cash + undrawn revolver + natural-gas-midstream-bond-and-money-market liquidity, FCF $430M committed) + multi-cycle-progressive-dividend ($0.88/share +7.3% FY25, $324M FY25 +16%) + no buyback (capital deployed to growth + dividend) + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-and-strategic-M&A + emerging-multi-cycle-AI-data-center-power-investment capex, ~~97-100M shares + multi-cycle-DTE-Energy-DT-Midstream-spin. Multi-cycle David-Slater-strategic-execution + 2021-DTE-Energy-spin + multi-cycle-investment-grade-and-progressive-dividend provides distinctive multi-decade-shareholder-aligned natural-gas-midstream-cash-flow + 280% TSR multi-year-compounding-track-record.$490M (+19% YoY) deployed into 2026 growth capex $420-480M ($390M committed) + 2027 growth investments above 2026 (
Key Core Metrics
| Metric | FY2025 Actual | FY2026E Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.24B (+27%) | Track quarterly | Pipeline + Gathering |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $1.138B (+17% record) | $1.155-$1.225B (+6% midpoint) | FY26 guide |
| 2027 Early Outlook adj EBITDA | — | $1.225-$1.295B (+6% midpoint) | Forward outlook |
| Adjusted EPS | $4.43 (+23%) | $4.70-5.20E | Multi-cycle-compounding |
| FCF | $490M (+19%) | Track | Multi-cycle-FCF-growth |
| Pipeline Revenue Share | 70% (from 50%) | Continued | Multi-cycle-mix-shift |
| Gathering Revenue Share | 30% | Continued | Appalachia + Haynesville + Anadarko-OK |
| Contracted Demand-Based Share | 95% | Sustained | Multi-cycle-cash-flow-visibility |
| Average Contract Tenure | 8 years | Sustained | Long-tenure portfolio |
| Organic Project Backlog | $3.4B over 5 years | Track | 75% pipeline projects |
| 2026 Growth Capex | $420-480M (~$390M committed) | — | Investment runway |
| 2027 Growth Capex | Above 2026 (~$430M committed) | — | Multi-cycle-runway |
| Net Debt | $3.40B (-3%) | ~$3.40B | Multi-cycle-deleveraging |
| Leverage Ratio (On-Balance-Sheet) | — | 2.9x FY26 target | Multi-cycle-IG |
| Proportional Leverage | — | 3.5x FY26 target | — |
| Credit Rating | BBB-/BBB (achieved FY2025) | IG-sustained | Multi-cycle-IG |
| Quarterly Dividend | $0.88/share (+7.3% YoY) | Continued progressive | Multi-cycle-progressive-dividend |
| FY25 Total Dividends | $324M (+16%) | Continued | Multi-cycle-progressive |
| Buyback | None | None | Capital deployed to growth + dividend |
| Shares Outstanding | ~97-100M | — | Post-2021-spin |
| 5-Year TSR Since Spin | 280% | Continued | Multi-cycle-track-record |
| 5-Year adj EBITDA CAGR | 12% | Sustained | Multi-cycle-compounding |
Market Evaluation
At ~$80-120 per share, equity value ~$7.9-12.0B, EV ~$11.3-15.4B, providing ~~18-27x EPS and ~~10-14x EV/EBITDA — typical-mid-cap-natural-gas-midstream multiple consistent with multi-cycle 2021-DTE-Energy-DT-Midstream-spin + emerging-multi-cycle-AI-data-center-power + LNG-export + emerging-multi-cycle-coal-to-gas-transition + emerging-multi-cycle-nuclear-renaissance + multi-cycle-investment-grade-and-progressive-dividend + 280% TSR / 12% adj EBITDA CAGR multi-year-compounding tailwinds.
Base case: AI-data-center-power constructive + LNG-export + Pipeline expansion (LEAP + Stonewall + Susquehanna + Vector) + emerging-Appalachia-Haynesville growth + FY26 adj EBITDA $1.155-$1.225B + adj. EPS $4.70-5.20 + multi-cycle-progressive-dividend + multi-cycle-IG + multi-cycle-compounding + ~5-15% return.
Bull case: AI-data-center-power inflects-substantially + LNG-export inflects + Pipeline FIDs accelerate + emerging-Appalachia-Haynesville growth + emerging-coal-to-gas-transition + emerging-nuclear-renaissance-natural-gas-complement + FY26 adj EBITDA $1.225B+ + adj. EPS $5.20-5.80 + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-and-strategic-M&A + emerging-strategic-acquisition-target (Williams + Kinder Morgan + Enterprise + Energy Transfer + Targa interest) + re-rate 22-30x + 25-50%+ return + takeout-premium-upside.
Bear case: AI-data-center-power disappoints + LNG-export stresses + Pipeline-regulatory-pressure (FERC tariff dynamics + methane emissions regulations) + natgas-demand-cycle stresses + adj. EBITDA $1.05-1.10B + adj. EPS $3.80-4.20 + de-rate 14-18x + flat-to-substantially-negative.
FY2026 turns on AI-data-center-power-demand + LNG-export + Pipeline expansion + Stonewall + Susquehanna + Vector + multi-cycle-Appalachia-Haynesville growth + David Slater-strategic-execution.
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