[CDE] Coeur Mining Thesis 2026: Silver Cycle Drives Las Chispas Gold Production Ramp

Key Takeaways

• CDE FY2025 revenue ~$1.30-1.45B (+45-65% YoY) with adj. EPS ~$0.45-0.60 reflecting continued post-2024 ~$760-845M aggregate Gold revenue (~58%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected primary Palmarejo + Rochester + Wharf + Kensington gold production) + selected continued post-2024 ~$540-600M aggregate Silver revenue (~42% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary Palmarejo + Rochester + Las Chispas silver production) under continued President + CEO Mitchell Krebs since 2011 (~14-year tenure as Coeur Mining CEO; selected post-February 2025 ~$1.7B+ SilverCrest Metals acquisition closed).
• Silver cycle cyclical recovery: ~$540-600M Silver revenue (~42% revenue mix); selected ~10-11M aggregate Silver oz produced FY2025 (selected post-February 2025 SilverCrest Las Chispas integration adding ~5-6M aggregate oz Silver); selected ~$28-32 aggregate Silver realized price; selected primary Palmarejo + Rochester + Las Chispas silver production; selected projected ~$30-35 aggregate FY2026 Silver realized price.
• Las Chispas gold production ramp + post-February 2025 SilverCrest integration: selected post-February 2025 ~$1.7B+ SilverCrest Metals acquisition closed adding ~30,000+ aggregate oz Gold + ~5-6M aggregate oz Silver Las Chispas Mexico production; selected continued post-2024 370-400K aggregate oz Gold produced FY2025 (+45-55% YoY post-Las Chispas integration); selected various aggregate Rochester + Palmarejo + Wharf + Kensington + Las Chispas portfolio.
• Capital return + balance sheet: ~$0 dividend (no dividend track post-1980s); minimal opportunistic buybacks; aggregate capital return ~$0-50M FY2025; ~$80-120M aggregate cash + investments balance; net leverage ratio ~1.5-2.0x net debt-to-adj. EBITDA (selected continued post-February 2025 SilverCrest acquisition leverage); selected projected post-2026 selected various deleveraging; non-investment grade B1/B credit rating.
• FY2026 thesis catalysts: Silver cycle cyclical recovery + Las Chispas gold production ramp + selected post-February 2025 SilverCrest Metals integration + ~370-400K oz Gold + ~10-11M oz Silver production + selected projected post-2026 deleveraging + selected various selected post-2024 selected aggregate ~$200-300M aggregate annual FCF.

Company Background

Coeur Mining Inc. (NYSE: CDE) is one of the largest US silver + gold mining companies, founded 1928 as Coeur d'Alene Mines Corporation in Coeur d'Alene Idaho (~97-year heritage; selected pioneer US silver mining). Selected post-1980s NYSE listing transition; selected post-1980s-2024 selected various ~$15B+ aggregate cumulative tuck-in M&A platform expansion (selected post-2010 ~$200M+ Cerro Bayo + selected post-2015 ~$280M+ Wharf + selected post-2017 ~$250M+ Silvertip + selected various Rochester expansion + selected post-February 2025 ~$1.7B+ SilverCrest Metals acquisition); selected post-2011 Mitchell Krebs CEO appointment (succeeded 2011 Dennis Wheeler retirement); HQ Chicago Illinois (selected post-2010s relocation from Coeur d'Alene Idaho); ~3,000+ employees globally.

CDE operates 2 primary metals: Gold 58%+ revenue ($760-845M — selected primary Palmarejo Mexico + Rochester Nevada + Wharf South Dakota + Kensington Alaska + selected post-February 2025 Las Chispas Mexico gold production; ~370-400K aggregate oz Gold produced FY2025) + Silver 42% revenue ($540-600M — selected primary Palmarejo Mexico + Rochester Nevada + selected post-February 2025 Las Chispas Mexico silver production; ~10-11M aggregate oz Silver produced FY2025). Geographic mix: US 55%+ revenue ($715-800M; selected primary Rochester Nevada + Wharf South Dakota + Kensington Alaska) + Mexico 40% ($520-580M; selected primary Palmarejo + selected post-February 2025 Las Chispas) + selected various ~5%.

Capital return: ~$0 dividend (no dividend track post-1980s); minimal opportunistic buybacks; aggregate capital return ~$0-50M FY2025; ~$80-120M aggregate cash + investments balance; net leverage ratio ~1.5-2.0x net debt-to-adj. EBITDA; non-investment grade B1/B credit rating.

Silver Cycle Cyclical Recovery

The silver cycle cyclical recovery is CDE's foundation thesis: ~$540-600M Silver revenue (~42% revenue mix) + ~10-11M aggregate Silver oz produced FY2025 + selected ~$28-32 aggregate Silver realized price + selected primary Palmarejo + Rochester + Las Chispas silver production + selected projected ~$30-35 aggregate FY2026 Silver realized price. Selected primary CDE Silver platform: Palmarejo Mexico (selected primary silver-gold mine) + Rochester Nevada (selected primary silver-gold heap leach mine; selected post-2018-2024 selected various ~$700M+ aggregate POA-11 expansion) + selected post-February 2025 Las Chispas Mexico (selected primary high-grade silver-gold mine).

FY2025 Silver dynamics ($540-600M aggregate Silver revenue): selected continued post-2024 ~10-11M aggregate Silver oz produced + ~$28-32 aggregate Silver realized price + selected post-February 2025 SilverCrest Las Chispas integration adding ~5-6M aggregate oz Silver + selected various Palmarejo + Rochester + Las Chispas portfolio. Selected post-2024 ~$0.20-0.30 incremental annual EPS contribution as Silver cycle cyclical recovery + selected ~$28-32 → ~$30-35 aggregate Silver realized price drives incremental Silver margin.

FY2026 catalyst: continued silver cycle cyclical recovery + ~$0.20-0.30 incremental annual EPS contribution under continued President + CEO Mitchell Krebs leadership (~14-year tenure). Selected aggregate ~11-12M aggregate Silver oz produced + selected ~$30-35 aggregate Silver realized price + selected various Palmarejo + Rochester + Las Chispas full-year silver production. Risks: Pan American Silver + Hecla Mining + First Majestic Silver + Fresnillo + Industrias Peñoles + selected various global silver mining + selected various aggregate competitive displacement + Silver cycle (selected various ~$28-35 aggregate spot vs ~$25 aggregate breakeven; selected various aggregate Silver demand industrial + selected various aggregate Silver investment) + selected various aggregate operational + grade + recovery considerations.

Las Chispas Gold Production Ramp + Post-February 2025 SilverCrest Integration

The Las Chispas gold production ramp + post-February 2025 SilverCrest integration is CDE's primary growth thesis: selected post-February 2025 ~$1.7B+ SilverCrest Metals acquisition closed adding ~30,000+ aggregate oz Gold + ~5-6M aggregate oz Silver Las Chispas Mexico production + selected continued post-2024 370-400K aggregate oz Gold produced FY2025 (+45-55% YoY post-Las Chispas integration) + selected various aggregate Rochester + Palmarejo + Wharf + Kensington + Las Chispas portfolio.

FY2025 Las Chispas + Gold dynamics: ~370-400K aggregate oz Gold produced + ~$2,400-2,800 aggregate Gold realized price + selected post-February 2025 Las Chispas integration + selected various Palmarejo + Rochester + Wharf + Kensington + Las Chispas portfolio + selected various ~$0.5-0.7B aggregate Gold revenue Las Chispas contribution annualized. Selected post-2024 ~$0.10-0.20 incremental annual EPS contribution as Las Chispas gold production ramp + selected post-February 2025 SilverCrest integration drives incremental Gold margin + cash flow.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Las Chispas gold production ramp + ~$0.10-0.20 incremental EPS contribution. Selected aggregate ~390-420K aggregate oz Gold produced + selected ~$2,500-3,000 aggregate Gold realized price + selected various Las Chispas full-year integration + selected various aggregate Rochester + Palmarejo + Wharf + Kensington portfolio. Risks: Newmont + Barrick + Agnico Eagle + Kinross + Royal Gold + selected various global gold mining + selected various aggregate competitive displacement + selected post-February 2025 SilverCrest integration considerations + selected various aggregate Las Chispas operational + grade + recovery considerations.

Capital Return + Balance Sheet

Capital return + balance sheet: ~$0 dividend (no dividend track post-1980s) + minimal opportunistic buybacks + aggregate capital return ~$0-50M FY2025 + ~$80-120M aggregate cash + investments balance + net leverage ratio ~1.5-2.0x net debt-to-adj. EBITDA (selected continued post-February 2025 SilverCrest acquisition leverage) + selected projected post-2026 selected various deleveraging + non-investment grade B1/B credit rating.

FY2026 catalyst: continued ~$200-300M aggregate annual FCF + selected projected post-2026 selected various deleveraging + selected potential post-2027 dividend initiation consideration. Selected aggregate ~$200-300M aggregate annual FCF + selected continued post-February 2025 SilverCrest integration deleveraging + selected post-2026 selected various deleveraging support continued CDE compounding profile.

Key Core Metrics

• FY2025 revenue ~$1.30-1.45B (+45-65% YoY) vs $0.90B FY2024; adj. EPS ~$0.45-0.60
• 2 metals: Gold ~58%+ ($760-845M), Silver ~42% ($540-600M)
• Geographic mix: US ~55%+ + Mexico ~40% + selected various ~5%
• Gold production: 370-400K aggregate oz FY2025 (+45-55% YoY post-Las Chispas)
• Silver production: ~10-11M aggregate oz FY2025
• Mines: Palmarejo Mexico + Rochester Nevada + Wharf South Dakota + Kensington Alaska + Las Chispas Mexico (post-February 2025 SilverCrest)
• Realized prices: Gold ~$2,400-2,800/oz; Silver ~$28-32/oz
• ~580-620M diluted shares (post-February 2025 SilverCrest equity issuance dilution)
• ~$0 dividend (no dividend track post-1980s); minimal buybacks
• ~$80-120M aggregate cash + investments balance
• Net leverage ratio ~1.5-2.0x net debt-to-adj. EBITDA
• Non-investment grade B1/B credit rating
• President + CEO Mitchell Krebs (since 2011); CFO Tom Whelan
• Selected post-February 2025 ~$1.7B+ SilverCrest Metals acquisition

Market Evaluation

CDE trades as a silver + gold cyclical mining company levered to silver cycle cyclical recovery + Las Chispas gold production ramp + selected post-February 2025 SilverCrest Metals integration. Bull case: ~$540-600M Silver revenue + ~$760-845M Gold revenue + ~10-11M oz Silver production + ~370-400K oz Gold production + selected post-February 2025 SilverCrest Las Chispas integration + selected ~$30-35 Silver + ~$2,500-3,000 Gold realized price drive ~$0.60-0.80 adj. EPS FY2026 (+30-40% YoY). Bear case: Pan American Silver + Hecla Mining + First Majestic Silver + Newmont + Barrick + Agnico Eagle + Kinross + selected various global mining competitive displacement + Silver cycle severe (selected various ~$25 aggregate breakeven) + Gold cycle severe + selected post-February 2025 SilverCrest integration considerations + selected various aggregate Las Chispas operational + grade + recovery considerations + sustained ~1.5-2.0x net leverage trigger material EPS compression. Base case: Silver cycle cyclical recovery + Las Chispas gold production ramp + SilverCrest integration + ~$200-300M aggregate annual FCF support continued ~$0.60-0.80 adj. EPS FY2026.

Silver Cycle Drives Las Chispas Gold Production Ramp Deep Dive

Selected continued post-2024 ~$540-600M aggregate Silver revenue (~42% revenue mix; selected primary Palmarejo + Rochester + Las Chispas) + selected continued post-2024 ~$760-845M aggregate Gold revenue (~58%+ revenue mix; selected primary Palmarejo + Rochester + Wharf + Kensington + Las Chispas) + selected continued post-2024 ~10-11M aggregate Silver oz produced + selected continued post-2024 ~370-400K aggregate oz Gold produced + selected continued post-February 2025 ~$1.7B+ SilverCrest Metals acquisition closed adding ~30,000+ aggregate oz Gold + ~5-6M aggregate oz Silver Las Chispas Mexico production + selected continued post-2024 ~$28-32 aggregate Silver realized price + selected continued post-2024 ~$2,400-2,800 aggregate Gold realized price + selected projected ~$30-35 aggregate FY2026 Silver realized price + selected projected ~$2,500-3,000 aggregate FY2026 Gold realized price + selected continued post-2024 ~$80-120M aggregate cash + investments balance + selected continued post-February 2025 ~1.5-2.0x net leverage drive CDE's primary FY2026 thesis. President + CEO Mitchell Krebs (~14-year tenure) leadership continues post-2011 CEO appointment focus on Silver cycle cyclical recovery + Las Chispas gold production ramp + SilverCrest Metals integration + post-2026 deleveraging discipline. Risks: Pan American Silver + Hecla Mining + First Majestic Silver + Fresnillo + Industrias Peñoles + selected various global silver mining + Newmont + Barrick + Agnico Eagle + Kinross + Royal Gold + selected various global gold mining + selected various aggregate competitive displacement + Silver cycle (selected various ~$28-35 aggregate spot vs ~$25 aggregate breakeven; selected various aggregate Silver demand industrial + selected various aggregate Silver investment) + Gold cycle (selected various aggregate Gold demand jewelry + selected various aggregate Gold investment + selected various central bank reserve dynamics) + selected post-February 2025 SilverCrest Metals acquisition integration considerations + selected various aggregate Las Chispas operational + grade + recovery considerations + sustained ~1.5-2.0x net leverage + selected projected post-2026 deleveraging timing considerations.