[ASR] Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste Thesis 2026: Cancún Airport Concession Drives Tourist Traffic Capital Return

Key Takeaways

• ASR FY2025 revenue ~Mex$32-34B / ~$1.85-1.95B (+8-12% YoY) with adj. EPS ~$22-24 reflecting continued post-2024 ~Mex$32-34B aggregate Aeronautical + Non-Aeronautical + Construction Services revenue (~9 Mexico airports + 6 Colombia airports + 2 Puerto Rico airports + selected various aggregate Cancún + Mérida + Cozumel + Veracruz + Oaxaca + Villahermosa + Huatulco + Minatitlán + Tapachula + selected various aggregate ~75-78M aggregate annual passenger traffic) under continued CEO Adolfo Castro since 2002 (~23-year tenure as ASR CEO; selected one of the longest tenures in Mexican infrastructure).
• Cancún Airport Concession + Mexico Airport Pipeline (~$1.20-1.30B revenue): ~$1.20-1.30B aggregate Mexico airport revenue (~63%+ revenue mix); selected primary Cancún (~50%+ aggregate Mexico segment passengers; selected primary tourism gateway to Mayan Riviera + Tulum + Playa del Carmen + Cozumel) + selected various aggregate Mérida + Cozumel + Veracruz + Oaxaca + Villahermosa + Huatulco + selected various aggregate ~50-52M aggregate annual Mexico passenger traffic + selected various aggregate ~$15-18 aggregate Aeronautical + Non-Aeronautical revenue per passenger.
• Colombia + Puerto Rico Airports Pipeline + Diversification: selected continued post-2018 selected various aggregate Colombia (Medellín + Rionegro + Quibdó + Corozal + Montería + Carepa) ~$0.30-0.35B aggregate revenue (~17%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected ~10-12M aggregate annual Colombia passenger traffic) + selected various aggregate Puerto Rico (San Juan Luis Muñoz Marín + Aguadilla) ~$0.20-0.25B aggregate revenue (~12%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected ~10-12M aggregate annual Puerto Rico passenger traffic).
• Capital position + balance sheet: ~$15-20 aggregate annual dividend (~80%+ aggregate payout ratio; ~3.5-4.5% aggregate dividend yield); minimal opportunistic buybacks; aggregate capital return ~$450-600M FY2025; net leverage ~0.5-1.0x Net Debt/EBITDA (selected ~debt-light balance sheet); investment-grade Baa2/BBB credit rating; ~30M aggregate ADR-equivalent diluted shares (~300M Mexico-listed shares); selected ~74%+ aggregate Inversiones y Técnicas Aeroportuarias (ITA) ownership concentration via Class B + selected various aggregate Fernando Chico Pardo.
• FY2026 thesis catalysts: Cancún airport concession (~25M aggregate annual Cancún passengers + Mayan Riviera tourism cycle) + Mexico airport pipeline (~50-52M Mexico passengers) + Colombia + Puerto Rico diversification + selected ~Mex$0.50-0.60 aggregate Mexico Tariff Per Workload Unit (TPWU) + selected ~74%+ ITA ownership concentration.

Company Background

Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE: ASR; BMV: ASUR) is one of the largest Mexico specialty Airport Operator concessionaires, founded 1998 as Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste post-Mexican government airport privatization (27-year heritage; selected pioneer Mexico Southeast airport concession). Selected post-October 2000 NYSE IPO ($355M aggregate IPO proceeds October 2000); selected post-2002 Adolfo Castro CEO appointment; selected post-October 2017 ~$262M+ Aerostar Airport Holdings (Puerto Rico San Juan + Aguadilla) acquisition; selected post-September 2018 ~$650M+ Airplan Holding (Colombia 6-airport concession) acquisition; HQ Mexico City Mexico; ~1,500-2,000 employees globally; selected ~9 Mexico airport concessions (50-year concession through 2048; renewal options) + selected ~6 Colombia airports + selected ~2 Puerto Rico airports (San Juan + Aguadilla); selected ~74%+ aggregate Inversiones y Técnicas Aeroportuarias (ITA) ownership concentration via Class B (selected various aggregate Fernando Chico Pardo).

ASR operates 1 primary business: Airport Operator concessionaire ~100% revenue. Aeronautical Services revenue 52%+ revenue mix ($0.95-1.05B; selected primary passenger charges + landing + parking + boarding bridge fees aggregate). Non-Aeronautical Services revenue 30% revenue mix ($0.55-0.60B; selected primary commercial + retail + duty-free + parking + advertising + leasing fees aggregate). Construction Services revenue 18% revenue mix ($0.30-0.35B; non-cash IFRIC 12 concession asset construction). Geographic mix: Mexico ~63%+ + Colombia ~17% + Puerto Rico ~12% + Construction Services ~8%.

Capital position: ~$15-20 aggregate annual dividend (~80%+ aggregate payout ratio; ~3.5-4.5% aggregate dividend yield); minimal opportunistic buybacks; aggregate capital return ~$450-600M FY2025; net leverage ~0.5-1.0x Net Debt/EBITDA (~debt-light balance sheet); investment-grade Baa2/BBB credit rating; ~30M aggregate ADR-equivalent diluted shares; selected ~74%+ aggregate ITA ownership concentration.

Cancún Airport Concession + Mexico Airport Pipeline (~$1.20-1.30B Revenue)

The Cancún Airport Concession + Mexico Airport pipeline is ASR's foundation thesis: ~$1.20-1.30B aggregate Mexico airport revenue (~63%+ revenue mix) + selected primary Cancún (~50%+ aggregate Mexico segment passengers; selected primary tourism gateway to Mayan Riviera + Tulum + Playa del Carmen + Cozumel) + selected various aggregate Mérida + Cozumel + Veracruz + Oaxaca + Villahermosa + Huatulco + Minatitlán + Tapachula + selected various aggregate ~50-52M aggregate annual Mexico passenger traffic + selected various aggregate ~$15-18 aggregate Aeronautical + Non-Aeronautical revenue per passenger. Selected primary ASR platform: Cancún Airport (~25M aggregate annual passengers) + selected primary Mayan Riviera tourism cycle.

FY2025 Mexico Airport dynamics ($1.20-1.30B aggregate Mexico revenue): selected continued post-2024 ~+5-10% aggregate Mexico passenger traffic growth (cyclical Mayan Riviera tourism recovery + Tulum International Airport competitive considerations) + ~$1.20-1.30B aggregate Mexico revenue + selected various aggregate ~50-52M aggregate annual Mexico passenger traffic + selected various aggregate ~$15-18 aggregate Aeronautical + Non-Aeronautical revenue per passenger. Selected post-2024 ~$2.50-4.00 incremental annual EPS contribution as Cancún + Mexico Airport cycle drives incremental margin.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Cancún Airport Concession + Mexico Airport pipeline + ~$2.50-4.00 incremental annual EPS contribution under continued Adolfo Castro leadership (~23-year tenure). Selected aggregate ~$1.30-1.40B aggregate Mexico revenue + selected various ~+3-7% aggregate Mexico passenger traffic + selected various aggregate ~52-55M aggregate annual Mexico passenger traffic + selected various aggregate ~$16-19 aggregate Aeronautical + Non-Aeronautical revenue per passenger. Risks: Tulum International Airport (post-December 2023 opening; AIFA + Mexico City competitive considerations) + GAP (Pacific airport operator) + OMA (Mexican Northern airport operator) + selected various aggregate Mexico Airport Concession competitive displacement + selected various aggregate Mayan Riviera tourism cycle considerations + selected various aggregate Mexican peso (MXN) currency considerations.

Colombia + Puerto Rico Airports Pipeline + Diversification

The Colombia + Puerto Rico Airports pipeline + Diversification is ASR's primary growth thesis: selected continued post-2018 selected various aggregate Colombia (Medellín José María Córdova + Rionegro + Quibdó + Corozal + Montería + Carepa) ~$0.30-0.35B aggregate revenue (~17%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected ~10-12M aggregate annual Colombia passenger traffic + selected primary post-September 2018 Airplan Holding ~$650M+ acquisition + selected various aggregate Medellín hub) + selected various aggregate Puerto Rico (San Juan Luis Muñoz Marín + Aguadilla) ~$0.20-0.25B aggregate revenue (~12%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected ~10-12M aggregate annual Puerto Rico passenger traffic + selected primary post-October 2017 Aerostar Airport Holdings ~$262M+ acquisition).

FY2025 Colombia + Puerto Rico dynamics: selected primary post-2018 Colombia (~$0.30-0.35B aggregate revenue + 10-12M aggregate annual Colombia passenger traffic) + selected primary post-2017 Puerto Rico ($0.20-0.25B aggregate revenue + ~10-12M aggregate annual Puerto Rico passenger traffic). Selected post-2024 ~$1.00-2.00 incremental annual EPS contribution as Colombia + Puerto Rico diversification drives incremental Mexico geographic concentration de-risking.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Colombia + Puerto Rico Airports pipeline + ~$1.00-2.00 incremental EPS contribution. Selected aggregate ~$0.32-0.38B aggregate Colombia revenue + selected various aggregate ~$0.22-0.27B aggregate Puerto Rico revenue + selected various aggregate ~12-14M aggregate annual Colombia passenger traffic + selected various aggregate ~10-13M aggregate annual Puerto Rico passenger traffic. Risks: GAP + OMA + selected various aggregate Colombia + Puerto Rico Airport Concession competitive displacement + selected various aggregate Colombia peso + Puerto Rico US dollar currency considerations + selected various aggregate Mayan Riviera + Caribbean tourism cycle considerations.

Capital Position + Balance Sheet

Capital position + balance sheet: ~$15-20 aggregate annual dividend (~80%+ aggregate payout ratio; ~3.5-4.5% aggregate dividend yield) + minimal opportunistic buybacks + aggregate capital return ~$450-600M FY2025 + net leverage ~0.5-1.0x Net Debt/EBITDA (~debt-light balance sheet) + investment-grade Baa2/BBB credit rating + ~30M aggregate ADR-equivalent diluted shares + selected ~74%+ aggregate ITA ownership concentration.

FY2026 catalyst: continued ~$450-650M aggregate annual capital return + selected continued ~3.5-4.5% aggregate dividend yield + selected continued ~$15-22 aggregate annual dividend + selected continued ~0.5-1.0x net leverage + selected various aggregate ~80%+ aggregate payout ratio. Selected ~74%+ ITA ownership concentration + selected investment-grade Baa2/BBB credit rating support continued capital return + Mexico airport CapEx + Master Development Program (PMD) commitments.

Key Core Metrics

• FY2025 revenue ~Mex$32-34B / ~$1.85-1.95B (+8-12% YoY) vs $1.74B FY2024; adj. EPS ~$22-24
• 1 segment: Airport Operator concessionaire ~100% (Aeronautical ~52%+ + Non-Aeronautical ~30% + Construction Services ~18%)
• Geographic mix: Mexico ~63%+ + Colombia ~17% + Puerto Rico ~12% + Construction Services ~8%
• Mexico: ~9 airports; ~50-52M aggregate annual passenger traffic; Cancún ~25M aggregate annual
• Colombia: ~6 airports; ~10-12M aggregate annual passenger traffic; Medellín hub
• Puerto Rico: ~2 airports; ~10-12M aggregate annual passenger traffic; San Juan + Aguadilla
• Aeronautical + Non-Aeronautical revenue per passenger: ~$15-18
• Mexico concession through 2048 (50-year; renewal options)
• Net leverage ~0.5-1.0x Net Debt/EBITDA
• ~30M aggregate ADR-equivalent diluted shares; ~$450-600M total capital return FY2025
• Dividend ~$15-20 annual (~80%+ payout; ~3.5-4.5% yield)
• Investment-grade Baa2/BBB credit rating
• ~74%+ ITA ownership concentration

Market Evaluation

ASR FY2026 market evaluation: at ~$280-320 share price + ~30M ADR-equivalent diluted shares = ~$8-10B market cap; ~$15-20 aggregate annual dividend + ~3.5-4.5% aggregate dividend yield. Selected primary ASR peers: Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (PAC, ~$8-10B Mcap) + Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (OMA, ~$6-7B) + AENA (Spain airport operator) + ADP (Aéroports de Paris) + Heathrow Airport Holdings + Fraport + Auckland Airport + Sydney Airport + Beijing Capital International Airport + selected various aggregate global airport operator concessionaires. Selected ASR ~12-15x P/E + selected ~6-8x EV/EBITDA + selected ~3.5-4.5% dividend yield + selected aggregate ~$2.0-2.15B aggregate FY2026 revenue + selected aggregate ~$24-26 aggregate FY2026 EPS + selected aggregate ~$450-650M aggregate FY2026 capital return + selected aggregate Cancún + Mayan Riviera tourism cycle pipeline. FY2026 base case: ~$2.0-2.15B aggregate revenue + ~$24-26 adj. EPS + ~$450-650M aggregate capital return. Bull case: Cancún tourism acceleration + Mayan Riviera growth + Colombia + Puerto Rico diversification + Master Development Program (PMD) tariff resets + Mexican peso (MXN) appreciation drives ~$2.10-2.30B aggregate revenue + ~$25-28 EPS. Bear case: Tulum International Airport competitive intensification + GAP + OMA competitive intensification + Mayan Riviera tourism cycle considerations + Mexican peso (MXN) depreciation considerations + Master Development Program (PMD) regulatory cycle considerations + AICM + AIFA Mexico City competitive considerations drives ~$1.85-1.95B revenue + ~$20-23 EPS. The thesis depends on Cancún Airport Concession + Mexico Airport Pipeline + Colombia + Puerto Rico Diversification + ~$15-18 aggregate revenue per passenger.