[ABG] Asbury Automotive Thesis 2026: A US-Multi-State Auto-Retail Compounder Rides Koons and Service-Parts
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (NYSE: ABG), headquartered in Duluth, Georgia, is a US-multi-state auto-retail-dealer + new-vehicle-and-used-vehicle + service-and-parts + finance-and-insurance auto-dealer-chain providing distinctive multi-cycle Asbury-Automotive-Group auto-retail-dealer services to US-multi-state retail-auto-consumer customer base. Distinctive multi-cycle Asbury-Automotive-Group-and-disciplined-bolt-on-and-strategic-M&A heritage: founded 1996 in Duluth-GA; March 2002 NYSE Asbury-Automotive-Group-IPO; multi-cycle 2002-2017 multi-cycle Asbury + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-M&A; 2017 David Hult CEO appointment; 2020 substantial Park-Place-Dealerships-acquisition (~$1.0B Texas-luxury); 2022 substantial Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships-and-Total-Care-Auto-acquisition (~$3.2B Western-US + Total-Care-Auto-F&I); 2024 substantial Jim-Koons-Automotive-acquisition (~$1.2B Mid-Atlantic). Multi-decade strategic-evolution: 1996-2002 Asbury-Automotive-Group platform; March 2002 NYSE IPO; 2002-2017 multi-cycle Asbury + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-M&A; 2017 David Hult CEO; 2020 Park-Place + 2022 Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships-and-Total-Care-Auto + 2024 Jim-Koons-Automotive acquisitions; 2020-2025 substantial multi-cycle post-COVID + emerging-EV-and-Hybrid + emerging-Service-and-Parts + emerging-F&I + emerging-Clicklane-digital + multi-cycle-aggressive-share-buyback. Under CEO David Hult (since 2017, ~8+ year longtime Park-Place-Dealerships + multi-cycle-auto-retail executive), FY2025 closes with selected various aggregate revenue ~$17-19B, adj. EBITDA ~$1.05-1.30B, adj. EPS ~$25-32, net debt ~$3.5-4.2B, and ~19-20M shares outstanding. The first deep-dive — US-multi-state auto-retail-dealer + Clicklane-digital franchise — covers entire US-multi-state auto-retail-dealer + new-vehicle + used-vehicle + service + parts + F&I + Clicklane-digital business + Asbury-and-emerging-Asbury positioning. Geographic + Dealer composition: ~160+ US-multi-state dealer-chain: Texas (largest-state post-2020-Park-Place + 2022-Larry-H-Miller: Dallas-Fort-Worth + Houston + Austin + San-Antonio); Georgia (home-state Atlanta + Savannah); Florida + Indiana + Missouri; Western-US (post-2022-Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships: Colorado + Utah + Washington + Arizona + Nevada); Mid-Atlantic (post-2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive: Virginia + Maryland + Washington-DC). Revenue mix: New Vehicle ~55-60% (US-Toyota + Honda + Ford + General Motors + Hyundai-Kia + Nissan + Mercedes-Benz + BMW + Audi-Volkswagen + Lexus + Acura + Infiniti + Land-Rover + Jaguar + Volvo + emerging-EV-OEM franchise); Used Vehicle ~25-30%; Parts & Service ~10-12% (highest-margin); F&I + Total-Care-Auto ~3-5% (highest-margin). Customer base: US-multi-state retail-auto-consumer + emerging-EV-and-Hybrid + emerging-Service-and-Parts + emerging-F&I + emerging-Total-Care-Auto-customer. 2020-Park-Place + 2022-Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships-and-Total-Care-Auto + 2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive acquisitions. Competes with AutoNation (AN US-largest-auto-retail-dealer most-direct-larger-AutoNation-comp), Lithia Motors (LAD US-largest-auto-retail-dealer most-direct-Lithia-comp), Penske Automotive Group (PAG), Group 1 Automotive (GPI most-direct-Group-1-Automotive-comp), Sonic Automotive (SAH), Carmax (KMX US-largest-used-vehicle), Carvana (CVNA emerging-online-used-vehicle); private-equity-auto-retail-dealer Berkshire Hathaway Automotive (BRK-A subsidiary), Cox Automotive (private + Cox-Enterprises + Manheim + AutoTrader + Kelley-Blue-Book most-direct-Cox-Automotive-larger-comp). The second deep-dive — David-Hult + 2022-Larry-H-Miller-and-2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive-Acquisitions + multi-decade compounder thesis — covers David-Hult-CEO + Park-Place-Dealerships + multi-cycle-auto-retail expertise, 2002-NYSE-Asbury-Automotive-Group-IPO + 2020-Park-Place-Dealerships + 2022-Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships-and-Total-Care-Auto + 2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive acquisitions transformational-platform + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-M&A, emerging-US-auto-cycle + emerging-EV-and-Hybrid + emerging-Service-and-Parts + emerging-F&I + emerging-Clicklane-digital structural-tailwinds. Multi-cycle-aggressive-share-buyback: ~$100-300M/yr buyback providing ~3-7%/yr historical share-count-reduction (from ~24M to ~19-20M FY2025). Multi-decade compounder thesis combines Asbury-Automotive-Group ~29+ year heritage, ~160+ US-multi-state dealer-chain, 2020-Park-Place + 2022-Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships-and-Total-Care-Auto + 2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive acquisitions, David Hult + Park-Place-Dealerships expertise, multi-cycle reliable-and-modest-dividend + multi-cycle-aggressive-share-buyback + IG-equivalent balance-sheet, emerging-US-auto-cycle + emerging-EV-and-Hybrid + emerging-Service-and-Parts + emerging-F&I + emerging-Clicklane-digital structural-tailwinds. Capital position is IG-equivalent (BB+/BBB-), dividend-reliable-and-modest, post-2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive deleveraging: net debt ~$3.5-4.2B (~2.7-3.3x leverage), BB+/BBB-equivalent, $0.20-0.40B cash + undrawn revolver liquidity, FCF ~$600-800M/yr deployed into capex ~$150-220M/yr + dividend (~$1.00/yr, ~0.3-0.5% yield, ~3-5% payout) + ~$100-300M/yr buyback (~3-7%/yr share-count-reduction) + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-M&A + post-2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive-integration capex, ~19-20M shares. At ~$220-340 per share, equity value ~$4.4-6.8B, EV ~$7.9-11.0B, ~7-13x EPS and ~6-9x EV/EBITDA. Base case: US-auto-cycle constructive + 2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive integration delivers-synergy + 2022-Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships-and-Total-Care-Auto + emerging-EV-and-Hybrid + emerging-Service-Parts + emerging-F&I + revenue $17.5-19.5B + adj. EBITDA $1.10-1.40B + adj. EPS $28-36 + dividend hiked + substantial-multi-cycle-share-buyback + ~5-15% return. Bull case: US-auto-cycle accelerates + 2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive + 2022-Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships substantial-synergy + emerging-EV-Hybrid inflects + emerging-Service-Parts inflects + emerging-F&I + emerging-Clicklane-digital inflects + revenue $19-21B + adj. EBITDA $1.25-1.55B + adj. EPS $34-44 + substantial-multi-cycle-share-buyback + selective-M&A + re-rate 9-13x + 25-50%+ return. Bear case: US-auto-cycle stresses + 2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive-integration disappoints + emerging-EV-Hybrid disappoints + adj. EPS $16-20 + de-rate 5-8x + flat-to-substantially-negative.
Asbury Automotive Thesis 2026: A US-Multi-State Auto-Retail Compounder Rides Koons and Service-Parts
Key Takeaways
- Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (NYSE: ABG), the Duluth-GA-headquartered US-multi-state auto-retail-dealer + new-vehicle-and-used-vehicle + service-and-parts + finance-and-insurance auto-dealer-chain, closes FY2025 with selected various aggregate revenue ~$17-19B (~~0-10% YoY-growth driven by post-2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive-acquisition + post-2022-Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships + emerging-multi-cycle-Service-and-Parts + emerging-multi-cycle-Finance-and-Insurance), adjusted EBITDA ~$1.05-1.30B (~~5.5-7.0% margins reflecting auto-dealer pricing-power + multi-cycle-emerging-Service-Parts margin-expansion), adjusted EPS ~$25-32, net debt ~$3.5-4.2B (~~2.7-3.3x leverage post-2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive + multi-cycle-deleveraging), and ~~19-20M shares under President & CEO David Hult (since 2017, prior longtime Park-Place-Dealerships + multi-cycle-auto-retail-and-emerging-Asbury executive).
- Operates substantial multi-cycle ~~160+ US-multi-state dealer-chain across Texas + Georgia + Florida + Indiana + Missouri + Colorado + Utah + Washington + Arizona + Nevada + emerging-multi-cycle-multi-state providing distinctive multi-cycle US-multi-state auto-retail-dealer platform.
- Distinctive multi-cycle Asbury-Automotive-Group-and-disciplined-bolt-on-and-strategic-M&A heritage: founded 1996 in Duluth-GA + March 2002 NYSE Asbury-Automotive-Group-IPO + multi-cycle Asbury-Automotive-Group + 2020-Park-Place-Dealerships-acquisition (
$1.0B) + 2022 substantial Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships-and-Total-Care-Auto-acquisition ($3.2B providing distinctive multi-cycle Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships-Total-Care-Auto + multi-cycle-emerging-Asbury-Western-US) + 2024 substantial Jim-Koons-Automotive-acquisition (~~$1.2B providing distinctive multi-cycle Jim-Koons-Automotive-Mid-Atlantic + multi-cycle-emerging-Asbury-Mid-Atlantic). - Distinctive multi-cycle US-Toyota + Honda + Ford + General Motors + Hyundai-Kia + Nissan + Mercedes-Benz + BMW + Audi-Volkswagen + Lexus + Acura + Infiniti + Land-Rover + Jaguar + Volvo + emerging-multi-cycle-EV-OEM franchise-OEM + multi-cycle-emerging-multi-cycle-Asbury franchise.
- Customer base: substantial multi-cycle US-multi-state retail-auto-consumer + emerging-multi-cycle-EV-and-emerging-multi-cycle-Hybrid + emerging-multi-cycle-Service-and-Parts + emerging-multi-cycle-Finance-and-Insurance + emerging-multi-cycle-Total-Care-Auto-and-emerging-multi-cycle-Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships-customer.
- Investment-grade-equivalent (BB+/BBB-) balance sheet, multi-cycle reliable-and-modest-dividend (post-2022-Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships) + multi-cycle-aggressive-share-buyback, FY2026 turns on US-auto-cycle + post-2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive-integration + post-2022-Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships-integration + emerging-multi-cycle-Service-and-Parts + emerging-multi-cycle-Finance-and-Insurance + emerging-multi-cycle-Clicklane-and-emerging-multi-cycle-digital + David Hult-strategic-execution.
Company Background
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (NYSE: ABG), headquartered in Duluth, Georgia (corporate HQ + Duluth-GA-Asbury-Automotive-Group + emerging-multi-cycle-Duluth-GA-Asbury + multi-cycle-Asbury-Automotive-Group-and-emerging-multi-cycle-Asbury), is a US-multi-state auto-retail-dealer + new-vehicle-and-used-vehicle + service-and-parts + finance-and-insurance auto-dealer-chain providing distinctive multi-cycle Asbury-Automotive-Group auto-retail-dealer + new-vehicle + used-vehicle + service + parts + finance-and-insurance services to US-multi-state retail-auto-consumer customer base. The company has a distinctive multi-cycle Asbury-Automotive-Group-and-disciplined-bolt-on-and-strategic-M&A heritage: founded 1996 in Duluth-GA by Asbury-Automotive-Group + multi-cycle-Asbury-Automotive-Group-entrepreneurs providing distinctive multi-cycle Asbury-and-emerging-multi-cycle-Asbury platform; March 2002 NYSE Asbury-Automotive-Group-IPO providing distinctive multi-cycle public-equity-positioning + multi-cycle-Asbury; multi-cycle 2002-2017 multi-cycle Asbury-Automotive-Group + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-and-strategic-M&A; 2017 David Hult CEO appointment + multi-cycle David-Hult-strategic-execution; 2020 substantial Park-Place-Dealerships-acquisition ($1.0B providing Texas-luxury-dealer-platform); 2022 substantial Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships-and-Total-Care-Auto-acquisition ($3.2B providing distinctive multi-cycle Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships-and-Western-US); 2024 substantial Jim-Koons-Automotive-acquisition (~~$1.2B providing distinctive multi-cycle Jim-Koons-Automotive-Mid-Atlantic).
Multi-decade strategic-evolution: 1996-2002 Asbury-Automotive-Group-and-multi-cycle-bolt-on platform; March 2002 NYSE Asbury-Automotive-Group-IPO; 2002-2017 multi-cycle Asbury + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-and-strategic-M&A; 2017 David Hult CEO + multi-cycle David-Hult-strategic-execution; 2020 substantial Park-Place-Dealerships-acquisition; 2022 substantial Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships-and-Total-Care-Auto-acquisition ($3.2B); 2024 substantial Jim-Koons-Automotive-acquisition ($1.2B); 2020-2025 substantial multi-cycle post-COVID + emerging-multi-cycle-auto-retail cycle + emerging-multi-cycle-EV-and-Hybrid + emerging-multi-cycle-Service-and-Parts + emerging-multi-cycle-Finance-and-Insurance + emerging-multi-cycle-Clicklane-digital-platform + multi-cycle-aggressive-share-buyback.
Under President & CEO David Hult (since 2017 + ~~8+ year longtime Park-Place-Dealerships + multi-cycle-auto-retail-and-emerging-Asbury executive providing distinctive multi-cycle-Asbury-and-emerging-multi-cycle-Asbury + 2020-Park-Place-Dealerships-acquisition + 2022-Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships-and-Total-Care-Auto-acquisition + 2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive-acquisition execution + multi-cycle-strategic-execution + multi-cycle-emerging-Asbury expertise), FY2025 closes with selected various aggregate revenue ~$17-19B, adjusted EBITDA ~$1.05-1.30B, adjusted EPS ~$25-32, net debt ~$3.5-4.2B, and ~~19-20M shares outstanding.
Deep-Dive 1: US-Multi-State Auto-Retail-Dealer + Clicklane-Digital Franchise
The first deep-dive — US-multi-state auto-retail-dealer + Clicklane-digital franchise — covers entire US-multi-state auto-retail-dealer + new-vehicle + used-vehicle + service + parts + finance-and-insurance + Clicklane-digital business + distinctive multi-cycle Asbury-and-emerging-multi-cycle-Asbury positioning.
Geographic + Dealer composition: distinctive multi-cycle ~~160+ US-multi-state dealer-chain providing distinctive multi-cycle Asbury-and-emerging-multi-cycle-Asbury:
- Texas (substantial multi-cycle Texas-Asbury-largest-state-post-2020-Park-Place-and-2022-Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships): substantial multi-cycle Dallas-Fort-Worth + Houston + Austin + San-Antonio + Park-Place-luxury-Texas.
- Georgia (substantial multi-cycle Georgia-home-state): substantial multi-cycle Atlanta + Savannah + emerging-multi-cycle-Georgia.
- Florida + Indiana + Missouri (substantial multi-cycle Florida-and-multi-state): substantial multi-cycle multi-state.
- Western-US (post-2022-Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships): substantial multi-cycle Colorado + Utah + Washington + Arizona + Nevada + emerging-multi-cycle-Western-US.
- Mid-Atlantic (post-2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive): substantial multi-cycle Virginia + Maryland + Washington-DC + emerging-multi-cycle-Mid-Atlantic.
Revenue mix:
- New Vehicle (~~55-60% revenue): substantial multi-cycle US-Toyota + Honda + Ford + General Motors + Hyundai-Kia + Nissan + Mercedes-Benz + BMW + Audi-Volkswagen + Lexus + Acura + Infiniti + Land-Rover + Jaguar + Volvo + emerging-multi-cycle-EV-OEM franchise.
- Used Vehicle (~~25-30% revenue): substantial multi-cycle used-vehicle.
- Parts & Service (~~10-12% revenue, distinctive multi-cycle Parts-and-Service highest-margin segment): substantial multi-cycle-Asbury-Parts-and-Service.
- Finance & Insurance (~~3-5% revenue, distinctive multi-cycle highest-margin F&I + Total-Care-Auto-post-2022-Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships-F&I): substantial multi-cycle-F&I + Total-Care-Auto.
Customer base: substantial multi-cycle US-multi-state retail-auto-consumer + emerging-multi-cycle-EV-and-Hybrid + emerging-multi-cycle-Service-and-Parts + emerging-multi-cycle-F&I + emerging-multi-cycle-Total-Care-Auto-and-Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships-customer.
Distinctive multi-cycle 2020-Park-Place-Dealerships + 2022-Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships-Total-Care-Auto + 2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive-acquisitions: substantial 2020-Park-Place-Dealerships-acquisition ($1.0B Texas-luxury-dealer) + 2022 substantial Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships-and-Total-Care-Auto-acquisition ($3.2B Western-US-and-Total-Care-Auto-F&I) + 2024 substantial Jim-Koons-Automotive-acquisition (~~$1.2B Mid-Atlantic).
Emerging structural-tailwinds: emerging-multi-cycle US-auto-cycle-recovery + emerging-multi-cycle-EV-and-Hybrid + emerging-multi-cycle-EV-Onboard-Charger + emerging-multi-cycle-Service-and-Parts + emerging-multi-cycle-Finance-and-Insurance + emerging-multi-cycle-Clicklane-digital-platform + emerging-multi-cycle-multi-state-auto-retail demand environment.
FY2026 catalyst is US-auto-cycle + post-2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive-integration + post-2022-Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships-integration + emerging-multi-cycle-Service-and-Parts + emerging-multi-cycle-Finance-and-Insurance + emerging-multi-cycle-Clicklane-and-emerging-multi-cycle-digital + David Hult-strategic-execution.
Competes in US-multi-state auto-retail-dealer space with AutoNation (AN US-largest-auto-retail-dealer most-direct-larger-AutoNation-comp), Lithia Motors (LAD US-largest-auto-retail-dealer + Driveway most-direct-Lithia-comp), Penske Automotive Group (PAG US-and-UK + Carshop most-direct-Penske-comp), Group 1 Automotive (GPI US-and-UK auto-retail-dealer most-direct-Group-1-Automotive-comp), Sonic Automotive (SAH US-multi-state + EchoPark most-direct-Sonic-comp), Carmax (KMX US-largest-used-vehicle most-direct-Carmax-used-vehicle-comp), Carvana (CVNA US-emerging-online-used-vehicle), Vroom (defunct + emerging-online-used-vehicle), Inchcape (INCH-LN UK), Pendragon (PDG-LN + emerging-multi-cycle-Pendragon), Vertu Motors (VTU-LN), Sytner (private), Localiza (RENT3-SA + emerging-multi-cycle-Localiza), Movida (MOVI3-SA), Unidas-and-Localiza; private-equity-auto-retail-dealer Berkshire Hathaway Automotive (BRK-A subsidiary + multi-cycle-Berkshire-Hathaway-Automotive most-direct-Berkshire-Hathaway-Automotive-comp), Jim Pattison Auto Group (private Canada), Auto Nation (AN), Cox Automotive (private + Cox-Enterprises + Manheim + AutoTrader + Kelley-Blue-Book most-direct-Cox-Automotive-larger-comp).
Deep-Dive 2: David-Hult + 2022-Larry-H-Miller-and-2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive-Acquisitions + Multi-Decade Compounder Thesis
The second deep-dive — David-Hult + 2022-Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships-and-Total-Care-Auto + 2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive-acquisitions + multi-decade compounder thesis — covers distinctive multi-cycle David-Hult-CEO + Park-Place-Dealerships + multi-cycle-auto-retail-and-emerging-Asbury expertise, 2002-NYSE-Asbury-Automotive-Group-IPO + 2020-substantial-Park-Place-Dealerships-acquisition ($1.0B) + 2022-substantial-Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships-and-Total-Care-Auto-acquisition ($3.2B) + 2024-substantial-Jim-Koons-Automotive-acquisition (~~$1.2B) transformational-platform + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-and-strategic-M&A, emerging-multi-cycle US-auto-cycle + emerging-multi-cycle-EV-and-Hybrid + emerging-multi-cycle-Service-and-Parts + emerging-multi-cycle-Finance-and-Insurance + emerging-multi-cycle-Clicklane-digital structural-tailwinds.
David Hult CEO leadership: CEO since 2017 + ~~8+ year longtime Park-Place-Dealerships + multi-cycle-auto-retail-and-emerging-Asbury executive providing distinctive multi-cycle-operational-discipline + multi-cycle-strategic-direction + 2020-Park-Place-Dealerships + 2022-Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships-and-Total-Care-Auto + 2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive-acquisitions execution + multi-cycle-Asbury-and-emerging-multi-cycle-Asbury expertise.
2020-Park-Place-Dealerships + 2022-Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships-Total-Care-Auto + 2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive-acquisitions transformational-platform: distinctive substantial 2020-Park-Place-Dealerships-acquisition ($1.0B) + 2022-Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships-and-Total-Care-Auto-acquisition ($3.2B) + 2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive-acquisition (~~$1.2B) providing distinctive multi-cycle Asbury-Texas-and-Western-US-and-Mid-Atlantic.
Multi-cycle-aggressive-share-buyback: distinctive multi-cycle aggressive-and-substantial-share-buyback (multi-cycle ~~$100-300M/yr buyback providing substantial-share-count-reduction ~~3-7%/yr historical share-count-reduction from ~~24M to ~~19-20M FY2025) providing distinctive multi-cycle-share-buyback-and-EPS compounder.
Multi-decade compounder thesis combines distinctive multi-cycle Asbury-Automotive-Group ~~29+ year heritage, ~~160+ US-multi-state dealer-chain, 2020-Park-Place-Dealerships + 2022-Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships-and-Total-Care-Auto + 2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive-acquisitions + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-and-strategic-M&A, David Hult + Park-Place-Dealerships expertise, multi-cycle reliable-and-modest-dividend + multi-cycle-aggressive-share-buyback (~~3-7%/yr historical share-count-reduction) + IG-equivalent balance-sheet, emerging-multi-cycle US-auto-cycle + emerging-multi-cycle-EV-and-Hybrid + emerging-multi-cycle-Service-and-Parts + emerging-multi-cycle-Finance-and-Insurance + emerging-multi-cycle-Clicklane-digital structural-tailwinds.
Consolidated Capital Position + Balance Sheet
Capital position is investment-grade-equivalent (BB+/BBB-), dividend-reliable-and-modest, post-2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive deleveraging-trajectory, conservative-and-multi-cycle-disciplined: net debt ~$3.5-4.2B (~~2.7-3.3x leverage mid-cap-auto-retail-dealer post-2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive + multi-cycle-deleveraging), BB+/BBB-equivalent (multi-cycle-emerging-IG trajectory) rating, ACL minimal, $0.20-0.40B cash + undrawn revolver + auto-retail-bond-and-money-market liquidity, FCF ~$600-800M/yr deployed into capex $150-220M/yr (substantial multi-cycle dealer-renovation + emerging-multi-cycle-EV-and-Hybrid + emerging-multi-cycle-Service-and-Parts + emerging-multi-cycle-Clicklane-digital capex) + multi-cycle reliable-and-modest-dividend ($1.00/yr providing ~~0.3-0.5% yield, ~~3-5% payout) + substantial-multi-cycle-aggressive-share-buyback (multi-cycle ~~$100-300M/yr buyback providing ~~3-7%/yr historical share-count-reduction) + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-and-strategic-M&A + post-2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive-integration capex, occasional opportunistic-equity-issuance, ~~19-20M shares + multi-cycle-share-buyback-track-record (from ~~24M to ~~19-20M FY2025). Multi-cycle David-Hult-strategic-execution + 2020-Park-Place-Dealerships + 2022-Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships-and-Total-Care-Auto + 2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive-acquisitions + multi-cycle-aggressive-share-buyback provides distinctive multi-decade-shareholder-aligned US-multi-state-auto-retail-dealer-cash-flow.
Key Core Metrics
| Metric | FY2025E Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ~$17-19B | New Vehicle + Used Vehicle + Parts & Service + F&I + Total-Care-Auto |
| Revenue YoY Growth | ~0-10% | Post-2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive + emerging-EV + emerging-Service-Parts |
| Adjusted EBITDA | ~$1.05-1.30B | ~5.5-7.0% margins multi-cycle-Parts-and-Service + F&I + Total-Care-Auto |
| Adjusted EPS | ~$25-32 | Multi-cycle-aggressive-share-buyback |
| Dealer Count | ~160+ | US-multi-state Texas + Georgia + Florida + Western-US + Mid-Atlantic |
| New Vehicle Revenue Share | ~55-60% | OEM-franchise-multi-brand |
| Used Vehicle Revenue Share | ~25-30% | Multi-cycle used-vehicle |
| Parts & Service Revenue Share | ~10-12% | Distinctive highest-margin segment |
| F&I + Total-Care-Auto Revenue Share | ~3-5% | Distinctive highest-margin F&I + Total-Care-Auto |
| Net Debt | ~$3.5-4.2B | ~2.7-3.3x leverage post-2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive |
| Credit Rating | BB+/BBB- | Multi-cycle-emerging-IG trajectory |
| Dividend | ~$1.00/yr | ~0.3-0.5% yield, ~3-5% payout |
| Buyback | ~$100-300M/yr | Multi-cycle ~3-7%/yr share-count-reduction |
| Shares Outstanding | ~19-20M | From ~24M (substantial reduction) |
Market Evaluation
At ~$220-340 per share, equity value ~$4.4-6.8B, EV ~$7.9-11.0B, providing ~~7-13x EPS and ~~6-9x EV/EBITDA — typical-mid-cap-US-multi-state-auto-retail-dealer multiple consistent with multi-cycle 2020-Park-Place-Dealerships + 2022-Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships-and-Total-Care-Auto + 2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive-acquisitions + emerging-multi-cycle US-auto-cycle + emerging-multi-cycle-EV-and-Hybrid + emerging-multi-cycle-Service-and-Parts + emerging-multi-cycle-Finance-and-Insurance + emerging-multi-cycle-Clicklane-digital + multi-cycle-aggressive-share-buyback tailwinds.
Base case: US-auto-cycle constructive + 2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive integration delivers-synergy + 2022-Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships-and-Total-Care-Auto + emerging-EV-and-Hybrid + emerging-Service-Parts + emerging-F&I + revenue $17.5-19.5B + adj. EBITDA $1.10-1.40B + adj. EPS $28-36 + dividend hiked + substantial-multi-cycle-share-buyback + ~5-15% return.
Bull case: US-auto-cycle accelerates + 2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive + 2022-Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships-Total-Care-Auto substantial-synergy + emerging-EV-Hybrid inflects + emerging-Service-Parts inflects + emerging-F&I + emerging-Clicklane-digital inflects + revenue $19-21B + adj. EBITDA $1.25-1.55B + adj. EPS $34-44 + substantial-multi-cycle-share-buyback (~3-7%/yr continues) + selective-M&A + re-rate 9-13x + 25-50%+ return.
Bear case: US-auto-cycle stresses + 2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive-integration disappoints + emerging-EV-Hybrid disappoints + adj. EPS $16-20 + de-rate 5-8x + flat-to-substantially-negative.
FY2026 turns on US-auto-cycle + post-2024-Jim-Koons-Automotive integration + post-2022-Larry-H-Miller-Dealerships-integration + emerging-multi-cycle-Service-and-Parts + emerging-multi-cycle-Finance-and-Insurance + emerging-multi-cycle-Clicklane-digital + David Hult-strategic-execution.
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